Japan can't solve inflation by raising rates.
Why? Debt.
At ~235% debt-to-GDP — highest in the developed world — every hike detonates the fiscal base.
So they must let the currency do it.
Force the Yen to surge. Force the reverse carry trade to unwind.
Only lever left.
@leadlagreport You are a legend my dude. This shit is playing out EXACTLY how you’ve been calling it. Queue the music “Can you take meeeeee Hiiiiigher…..”
¥35 trillion in yen carry trade forwards.
BOJ raises rates → unwind. BOJ holds → yen collapses.
There's no good exit. This is a trap. We saw it in 2008. We saw it in 2020.
$FXY
The macro setup right now:
- WTI at $91 (up 36% in a week)
- VIX near 30 (up 50% in a week)
- Payrolls at -92K
- Bonds offering zero protection
- Small caps in free fall
- Fed completely paralyzed
- SPR at 40-year lows
- Private credit cracking
- Iran choosing a new Supreme Leader
This isn't a pullback. It's a repricing of everything you thought you knew about this cycle.