asymmetri3

Odd-lots, tenders & cheap EM compounders. Small downside, big upside, with numbers. My own trades + results. Not advice.

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@AndhraNexus it lands into a glut though. Chinese producers like Daqo have been selling polysilicon below cost, and Daqo hasn't used a dollar of its current $100M buyback. India's 100% import share is the pitch, cost per kg is the problem

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@business the product side is where it bites. Russian diesel exports doubled last month after sanctions were lifted (FT), and refinery hits cut straight into that. it's why diesel stays tight while crude falls

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@bespokeinvest the split inside energy is the story. Brent −18% this month while European gas just hit a 3-month high. gas-weighted producers are the ones still getting paid

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@SGercourt84708 true, and that's exactly why Paris trades at a discount. but you don't need to move: the circular covers the Euronext register directly. odd-lot holders there get the offer price converted at the FX rate on the 18 Dec record date, paid around 4 Jan

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@CT24zive the mirror image of the UK, which kept its levy. UK North Sea producers now trade at about half the earnings multiple of Norwegian peers

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@ARISEtv the UK is the test case. 78% headline tax on North Sea profits since 2022, and its listed producers trade at about half the earnings multiple of Norwegian peers. capital goes where the rules stay put

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@business you can see it in the banks. Grupo Cibest (Bancolombia) earned 3% less in Q3 and trades ~8.6x earnings with ~8% total yield. the squeeze is already in the price

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@wallstengine the market's ratio today: $398.22 / $140.75 ≈ 2.83 SpaceX shares per Tesla share. where the announced ratio lands vs that is the whole merger arb

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@KobeissiLetter for scale: SpaceX ~$1.9T, Tesla ~$1.6T, ~$3.5T combined. SpaceX burned ~$39B of free cash flow over the last 12 months while Tesla earned $3.2B. one side brings the cash need, the other the cash flow and the public shareholder base

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@InvestSpecial @terton_capital the vote math is the hard part. Kang has 29.3% himself, ~42% once you add the GSK/Otsuka voting pacts. listed stakes alone are ~91% of mcap, so the W50bn/yr payout floor is the ask that matters. how big is Terton's stake?

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@PolitlcsUK the market priced the politics in already. UK-heavy Harbour trades ~4x forward earnings, Norway's Equinor and Var ~9x. same North Sea rocks, the windfall tax and licence freeze are the difference

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@akcakmak this is the fix MSCI asked for, its free-float complaint was about exactly these names. Goldman put forced selling on a standalone downgrade at ~$5.6B. dropping 300 illiquid stocks from local indices is a much cheaper price. MSCI decides by June 2027

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@chigrl gas and oil have split. TTF up 3 days to a 3-month high, Brent −18% this month. European gas producers' Q4 will look nothing like the oil-heavy names'

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@ahern_brendan and the share count is up ~0.4% over the last year, so the buybacks aren't shrinking it anymore. a T-Head listing at least forces a number onto the part the market prices at zero

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@TradingDiary2 the yield helps the chart. BMRI pays ~14% vs a 7.7% 10-year, and foreign index selling did the damage, not earnings. (I hold some)

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@TradingDiary2 the numbers back it. MSCI Indonesia ~7.3x forward, cheapest since 2008, P/B 1.37x vs the 2008 floor of 1.28x. the overhang is MSCI's standalone decision by June 2027, index money sells rallies until then

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@Ajay_Bagga which is why Brent is $92, not $118. gas didn't get the same relief, TTF just hit a 3-month high as storage draws early

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

how it works: ZCCM-IH odd lot offer, Euronext Paris ticker $MLZAM (ISIN ZM0000000037). under 100 shares only, price = LuSE VWAP +5%, doing nothing counts as accepting. last Paris trade 16 Dec, record date 18 Dec. works via IBKR, Singapore brokers are excluded. not advice

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@QCompounding the flip side is the one case where the multiple does the work. buy at 4–5x earnings and a re-rate to a boring 8x roughly doubles you before any growth. that's the setup in forced-seller stocks

[asymmetri3 @asymmetri3]

@ZeeContrarian1 the risk to that gap is rates. Drewry's WCI fell a 3rd straight week to $4,305/FEU as disruptions fade. ZIM earns close to spot, so the real question is what the dividend looks like at normal rates