John Reynolds 雷瀚

politics/markets/disinformation/China vajra 108|Psalm 29

[John Reynolds 雷瀚 @atikyogi]

“Many don’t remember the Bicentennial. The countrywide party it was filled with hope, pride, and gratitude. More of the same was planned this time, but Trump’s ego got in the way. Thanks for posting.”

[Danielle Langlois @DanielleLangWa]

I can’t vouch for the veracity of Linuscatt’s statement on Reddit, but if true, that monthlong SMITHSONIAN CELEBRATION to celebrate our nation’s 250th birthday would have been really fun.

“linuscatt · 1d ago
I worked at Smithsonian, specifically raising money for 250th. What I want people to know is we secured millions of private philanthropy to host a month long Folklife Festival on the mall, "The Festival of Festivals". Was going to feature well known festivals, think Burning Man, Farm Aid, Grand Ole Oprey etc. as well as smaller local and regional festivals from across the U.S. and territories. Goal was to feature truly the best and most beautiful creative expression in music, dance, arts and craft traditions, food, community etc. Can't name names but plan was to have headliners every night for free concerts.... Think the types of names who might be affiliated with the aforementioned large festivals. Stars were willing to perform because was under banner of Smithsonian. It had to all be scrapped bc the administration would not release permits to host on the mall. The money went elsewhere, but our nation was robbed of what would have been a once in a generation cultural moment.”

[John Reynolds 雷瀚 @atikyogi]

The U.S. remains a net importer of crude, and a net exporter of petroleum products.

https://t.co/w723MHkjlr

https://t.co/k55PyQSkv3

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

US crude exports averaged 5.6 million b/d in May or +2.1 million b/d y-o-y.

By the end of July, SPR release will be gone and US will be at operational minimum for commercial crude storage.

In order to balance US commercial crude inventories, crude exports have to fall to 3.3 million b/d or -2.3 million b/d from the May level.

Global crude exports will be down ~10 million b/d.

China would have to decrease seaborne crude imports to 1 million b/d (from 6.5 million b/d today, or another -5.5 million b/d) to balance the crude market. Unrealistic as this would drain onshore crude inventories at 270 million bbls a month.

Clearly, you can see how unsustainable this situation is.

[John Reynolds 雷瀚 @atikyogi]

The U.S. remains a net importer of crude, and a net exporter of petroleum.

https://t.co/k55PyQSkv3

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

US crude exports averaged 5.6 million b/d in May or +2.1 million b/d y-o-y.

By the end of July, SPR release will be gone and US will be at operational minimum for commercial crude storage.

In order to balance US commercial crude inventories, crude exports have to fall to 3.3 million b/d or -2.3 million b/d from the May level.

Global crude exports will be down ~10 million b/d.

China would have to decrease seaborne crude imports to 1 million b/d (from 6.5 million b/d today, or another -5.5 million b/d) to balance the crude market. Unrealistic as this would drain onshore crude inventories at 270 million bbls a month.

Clearly, you can see how unsustainable this situation is.

[John Reynolds 雷瀚 @atikyogi]

@JohnDSailer @threadreaderapp unroll

[John Reynolds 雷瀚 @atikyogi]

@BeBetterMan_ @threadreaderapp unroll

[John Reynolds 雷瀚 @atikyogi]

@TheBetterPath_ @threadreaderapp unroll

[John Reynolds 雷瀚 @atikyogi]

@TheBetterPath_ @UnrollHelper

[John Reynolds 雷瀚 @atikyogi]

@BeBetterMan_ @UnrollHelper

[Kevin Carpenter @kejca]

Charlie Munger: "[Petroleum] is precious stuff — and I don't mind having a goodly part of it that remains in the ground. It's a good place to store it."

"I regard the petroleum reserves in the United States about the way I regard the black topsoil of Iowa. I regard it as a national treasure. And just as I'm not in favor of dumping [the topsoil] in the ocean, I'm not in favor of using up all the petroleum as fast as possible. I love the idea of conserving [our] natural resources."

[John Reynolds 雷瀚 @atikyogi]

@aaronsibarium @UnrollHelper thx

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

The damage to the global economy is already done, people just haven't realized it yet

Cutting off 20% of oil, 30% fertilizer and 30% of helium for 30+ days will have ripple effects in the coming months that can't be predicted. Similar to 2008 the actual impact hits 60 days later

[John Reynolds 雷瀚 @atikyogi]

“Helpful map from JPM highlighting when that air pocket will “land” in different major consuming regions:
- East Africa last week
- East Asia this week
- Europe next week
- North America two more weeks”

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

I’ve been describing the supply loss from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as an “air pocket” moving through the normal flow of oil out of the Gulf

Helpful map from JPM highlighting when that air pocket will “land” in different major consuming regions:
- East Africa last week
- East Asia this week
- Europe next week
- North America two more weeks

[John Reynolds 雷瀚 @atikyogi]

@Eric_Schmitt @grok What accounts for the different trends between Democrats and Republicans?

[John Reynolds 雷瀚 @atikyogi]

@elonmusk @grok Why are independents far less likely to be extremely or very proud of being American than decades ago? Bc of econ pessimism for youth, deepening partisan rancor eroding trust in institutions, and cultural debates over history/identity that feel more divisive than unifying?

[John Reynolds 雷瀚 @atikyogi]

@BoLoudon @grok How difficult is it for a public figure to win a suit against a news organization for reporting that he has been accused (but not charged) of committing crime?

[John Reynolds 雷瀚 @atikyogi]

@grok @LeadingReport @grok There’s a post that claims the Enumeration Beyond Entry program was launched in October 2017 by SSA and DHS, which automated SSN issuance for work-authorized immigrants. What is the origin of the Beyond Entry program? How many noncitizens were granted SSN’s in 2018 - 2000?

[John Reynolds 雷瀚 @atikyogi]

@grok @grok In other words, your replies are equally correct.

[John Reynolds 雷瀚 @atikyogi]

@grok @Haraldonx @3YearLetterman @WhiteHouse Who, in aggregate, pays the tariffs—producers, importers, or consumers?
Are there optimal tariff levels if the aim is to make Americans better off? Do these numbers change whether the time horizon is one year, or ten years?
Detailed answers please.

[John Reynolds 雷瀚 @atikyogi]

@Panagiotou90St @UnrollHelper