From today, you can get hands-on with the greatest onchain trading experience.
From today, the hoodies and sneakers will have the edge.
From today, Fogo Testnet is open to the public.
(that’s you btw) 🧵
The Dark Side of @celestia
Unpacking the broken tokenomics of $TIA
TIA has a total supply of 1.12 billion tokens. The initial circulating supply was 220 million TIA. That’s just a little bit more than 20%.
But what happens with the rest? 👇
On October 30, 2024, the first big vesting cliff hit the holders. Over 175 million tokens were unlocked in a single day. That’s 83% of the circulating supply at that time. And the problem is not solved, as Celestia is sitting on a massive unlock bomb.
After that cliff, nearly 1 million tokens will unlock daily for one year all the way through October 2025. From November, 2025 the unlocks will continue, but with slower daily unlocks over 2 years with round about 345k new TIA tokens PER DAY on the market. This means, right now most of the tokens are still locked, and largely held by insiders: seed investors, Series A & B VCs, the core team and the foundation. Three full years of consistent sell pressure, with most of the unlocked tokens going to insiders who bought in at the following prices:
Seed investors: $0.015
Series A VC's: $0.08
Series B VC's: $0.25
Early-stage buyers now sit on 9x–151x gains, while the public holds illiquid, inflated bags. But how they can sell tokens while they are still locked?
The Staking Loophole
Early recipients could stake their tokens even while they were still locked.
This created a powerful “double-dip” mechanism:
Step 1: Buy tokens at VC discounts
Step 2: Stake those locked tokens right away
Step 3: Earn liquid staking rewards (~20% APR)
Step 4: Sell those rewards into the market, all before the original tokens even unlock
In short: free passive income on tokens you couldn’t even sell.
Yet, Celestia pushed forward with full VC backing, marketing hype, and selective airdrops to build public legitimacy. Most of the token supply hasn’t even hit the market yet. It gets worse when you realize that the unlock structure creates a long-term drain on the community. From Nov 2024 through Oct 2027, Celestia will be gradually flooding the market with insider-owned tokens. And who will be buying these newly released tokens? Most likely us, the retail – again.
Since the rise of @HyperliquidX, we all should know how tokenomics matters! It's hard for me to call a project decentralized when over 75% of the supply is locked of insiders, where unlocks are timed to maximize exit liquidity where retail was never meant to win.
The community deserves better.
The community deserves the truth.
@nickwh8te You really don’t have much time left. Look at the performance of $tia tokens now. It is almost difficult to find tokens that perform worse than it. At the beginning, many people said that there were big problems with your token design, and you said it was FUD.
We have reached our deposit cap of $500 million.
We are thrilled that 1,100+ wallets participated, with a median deposit amount of ~$35,000.
Trillions.
The financial system of tomorrow. Owned by you.
Announcing the XPL public sale, using Sonar by @echodotxyz.
10% of XPL will be sold at a $500M FDV, the same valuation as our latest equity round with Founders Fund.