I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true:
— As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable.
— Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.)
— A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused.
— In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.”
— In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety.
— In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community.
— The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority.
— Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.
The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.
Access to all other Claude models is not affected.
We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.
Read our full statement: https://t.co/bwn0sximKZ
Bitcoin
Valor é subjetivo e é o que determina a demanda. Isso vale para o bitcoin, para o ouro, para qualquer bem.
Não existe valor intrínseco. Existem propriedades intrínsecas, mas o valor é sempre subjetivo e deriva da utilidade marginal.
Preço é definido pelo comprador marginal.
Custo de mineração não define preço. Custo nenhum define preço.
Não existe espiral da morte. O ajuste de dificuldade da mineração continua funcionando normalmente. Mineradores sangram, hashrate cai, dificuldade reajusta. Até quando? Até reencontrar o equilíbrio de rentabilidade dos mineradores. Dezembro de 2018 foi pedagógico para essa lição.
Topos de ciclos anteriores, suportes, ou qualquer outra formação gráfica são barreiras e regras meramente psicológicas.
Bitcoin a $126k ou a $66k funciona da mesma forma.
Ninguém manda no protocolo. Para o bem e para o mal.
Computação Quântica é um risco conhecido desde sempre. E os usuários lidarão com ela. Com muita polêmica, muita volatilidade e muito cuidado.
Novos desafios surgirão no futuro. E o software precisará ser atualizado.
Bitcoin financeirizado amplifica volatilidade. E pode minar a escassez natural do bitcoin (paper bitcoin). Afeta preço? Claro. Compromete a tecnologia e a essência do bitcoin? Não.
Em geral, o entendimento sobre o bitcoin, por incrível que pareça, ainda é bastante superficial. Especialmente em Wall St. e na Faria Lima. O ruído recente sobre Epstein é uma boa evidência disso, mas longe de ser a única.
A confiança e a convicção no bitcoin não vêm do preço, mas sim do estudo dos seus fundamentos, do protocolo, da tecnologia.
Na dúvida, faça DCA. Especialmente nos momentos de pessimismo e bear market.
As moedas nacionais estão condenadas. Todas continuarão sendo desvalorizadas.
Não há segundo melhor.
Bitcoin é o ativo deste século. É a pólvora monetária. Mas ainda tem um longo caminho pela frente.
Autocustódia é soberania individual.
@hi_disruptivas vendi toda a minha posição em ETH com pequeno lucro em novembro de 2024. não voltarei a comprar.
entre ETH e SOL, minha aposta é na segunda.