EarlyRiser

Digital Asset & IoT Analyst - Liquidity | Web 3.0 | $ALGO $TAO $BTC - Hedging - Phys Silver | Vinyl | Books | Collectables

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

For those who watched the bear market this is 100% the best thread I have read the past 6 months. $ALGO $HBAR $NEAR

[CryptoAmsterdam @damskotrades]

If you are looking to ride the bull market but are still sidelined, what is worse?

1. Missing the once-in-the-four-year opportunity you are here for.

2. being involved but wrong while close to the invalidation.

After riding three cycles, here are some cycle lessons I learned the hard way;

> Bear PTSD; what is this, and why do you want to kill it?
After riding the bull cycle in 2021, people became used to that dips were followed up by rallies into new highs.
If you did not buy the dip, or worse, sold the dip, you were punished by the market. Most did not recognize the shift into the bear market and continued to test this strategy repeatedly. But instead of rallies into new highs, pumps were followed by extended rallies to the downside. After being punished over and over again for buying and holding, people got used to the new bear paradigm and became scared of potential long downtrends after pumps. Expecting dips to keep dipping. They don't trust the pump and are in disbelief.

And just like not noticing the shift in trend at the top, they won't see it at the bottom.

How do we notice this shift in the trend?

You can use the cycle structure, indicators, range deviations, and many other things, but for me, the most important and clearest sign = the higher time frame market structure.

- Higher highs and lows = expect a rally after a dip as long as the structure is intact.

- Lower highs and lows = expect a dip after a bounce as long as the structure is intact.

So, stop expecting the dip to keep dipping; start expecting a higher high and follow up. Dips are an opportunity to get exposure as long as the trend is intact.

> Zoom out and keep the bigger picture in mind.
You want to ride the whole bull cycle up.

By zooming in too much, sitting on a low time frame, trying to play every 5-15% pullback by selling to buy back lower, and watching every little resistance on the way up, you'll make this super hard for yourself.

Less = more.

Keep your eyes on the higher time frames and trends, and ignore lower time noise.

> Take it slow.
The day you decide that you want to have exposure, in case it actually is the start of a new bull run, doesn't need to be the day that you are 100% in the market.

I've been bullish for a while, and I'm still holding a lot of stables.

Build it up slowly. There will be constantly new opportunities to get in.

- Gain confidence first with low exposure. It's easier to not instantly puke on the first 5% dip.
- Be patient with your entries.
- Gives you room to add new coins that cure cancer, which will pop up along the way.

Don't fomo, because there will be dips. There's no reason to buy the massive green candles. In any bull, we've seen 10-40% dips. Use these moments of uncertainty to build your exposure. Don't try to buy the bottom of the dip; instead, scale in the coins you want to accumulate and hold into the next cycle by using higher time frame demand zones.

> There's the saying: 'I'd rather be late at the party than at the wrong party.'
While I agree with this, whenever you have seen your confirmation of the party, you should not hesitate to join.

The earlier you jump on a trend, the closer to the invalidation you are, and on the other side, the more gains are to be made. Your risk-reward is so much better when you are early.

This conflicts with your emotions, though; they would rather have you in after another 6 months of green instead of now. Stick to the trend, not to your feelings.

> Plan upfront.
It would be best if you started creating a cycle plan today before the market is in up-only mode. Now, you are still able to reason. When the market has been in an up-only manner for months, you will be full of emotions after making more money than you could have imagined.

Trust the person without emotions, not the person high on euphoria.

> New vs. Old coins.
The old gems you knew and did super well in the last cycle might feel like an opportunity while they are still discounted. This is indeed the case in some cases, with SOL, for example. But in general, new coins do better than old ones.

The top 100 will change every cycle.

- People like new and shiny things.
- New trends will be born and steal the show. Defi, or Metaverse tokens in 2021, are good examples. Old projects will desperately attempt to catch up with a new roadmap but fail.
- People will have a nasty taste in their mouths from old projects.
- Old assets will have constant sell pressure coming from bag holders looking to sell break even.
- Old assets got a lot of resistance on the chart; self-fulfilling prophecy.
- Older assets will have more unlocks for investors/VCs, while the newer ones still have a fresh vesting period (often).
- For example, new coins will form around hot and relevant trends, such as AI.

> Don't sell yourself short, but in the end, cash is king.

At the start of the cycle, in phase 4 and early 5, you want to accumulate and hold your new low-cap gems.
You don't want to sell them too early in the cycle.

But if, after a while, later in the cycle, they are up a lot, you may want to sell and rotate them into other coins.

This is fine, but make sure that you stop fully rotating at some point, especially when the whole market is printing new highs. Taking profit into cash is something people often don't do. They get caught up in bullish super cycle sentiment and give back all their unrealized gains by rotating into new things until the music stops.

Everyone is gonna get caught up in bullish sentiment; this is why it's so important to think about these things and have a rough plan in place before we are in euphoria, and any rationality is gone.

> Your network is your net worth.
The number of things going on at some point will be too much for you alone. Having a group of friends gives you way more eyes and ears on the market.

Also the amount of opportunity in having a network with connections is insane.

Start to give more than you receive; don't absorb, but contribute.

Feel free to apply to our @Altcointraders_ network.

> Nothing is forever, and nothing is too big to fail.
- Don't marry any bags; you'll become a community member. Don't think the bear will not come for your bag because *insert any reason*
- The market will not continue in up-only forever; slowly scaling out into cash won't kill you.
- Even the biggest exchanges can fail; an exchange is there to trade, not store your coins.

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

@VibesSyndicate Dca again

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

@JoeParys TAO.

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

@CryptosR_Us Algo - still building

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

@coinbureau Leverage should be banned greater than 5x

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

@RealAllinCrypto Algo

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

@aniobrien @JudithCollinsMP Interesting thread - and yep most of what you have listed is not science. Good to see an equitable rebalance.

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

Yep. Have tested @FifaCollect with hundreds of transactions. The 2026 tournament should see significant upswing of the RTB Tickets and digital collectables.

[EldarDRM ⚜️⚛️ @EldarDRM]

For $ALGO peeps to consider when they think about @FIFACollect memorable moments possibilities and that it's still in early stages despite its success so far, as well as the right to buy tickets for the next World Cup.

And then there is that ticketing solution we know they are working on as per original announcement from 2022.

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

@MizukiAlgo ZSBHF2H7YOUTAOWIELWNWPKEG4L46WP53NBHKRROYZYS4ZOLVOC2NA6A5M

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

@algoindex_ ZSBHF2H7YOUTAOWIELWNWPKEG4L46WP53NBHKRROYZYS4ZOLVOC2NA6A5M

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

@algoindex_ Added and retweeted , thanks

[algoindex.algo @algoindex_]

🚨🚨Airdrop Alert! Drop your $Algo address in the comments and retweet to qualify for the first Index airdrop. We are sending $DUGLY to all qualified participants in 24 hours. #algorand

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

@algoindex_ ZSBHF2H7YOUTAOWIELWNWPKEG4L46WP53NBHKRROYZYS4ZOLVOC2NA6A5M

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

@chadgooseworth @AlgoDolan69 @PeraAlgoWallet Just bought some , lesh go

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

@chadgooseworth Opted in , was going to buy some also when ready no rush... ZSBHF2H7YOUTAOWIELWNWPKEG4L46WP53NBHKRROYZYS4ZOLVOC2NA6A5M

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

@AlgoFoundation @AlgorandFR @AlgorandBrasil @Algorand_NG @AlgorandJapan @AlgorandEs @Algorand_Europe @AlgorandChina @Algorand_Spain @AlgorandKorea @Algorand_IE 500 in 8 years likely to be $2.5k+ FIAT

[Algorand Foundation @AlgoFoundation]

Welcome to Day 12 of the 12 Days of AlgoMas Giveaway 🎅

We’re giving 5 people 500 $ALGO each 🎁

To win, RT, Like, and then follow 👇

@AlgorandFR
@AlgorandBrasil
@Algorand_NG
@AlgorandJapan
@AlgorandEs
@Algorand_Europe
@AlgorandChina
@Algorand_Spain
@AlgorandKorea
@Algorand_IE

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

@RealAllinCrypto ALGO!

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

@CrisNajeraG Algo since Genesis

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

Allocated 10% of 401K equivalent #willcheckin8years

[Thomas Fahrer @thomas_fahrer]

Blackrock officially recommends a 2% allocation to #Bitcoin

The world has $900T in assets and 2% of that implies a Bitcoin market Cap of $18T ~ $900K Per Coin.

Are you paying attention?

[EarlyRiser @auck_lander]

@AltcoinDailyio ALGO way ahead of these 3 already - QANX one to investigate in addition to the other 3.