🗳️ THE SPECIAL VOTES COULD MAKE THINGS VERY INTERESTING!
I spoke with David Farrar today to get a rundown on where things are sitting with the election and, in particular, the impact of the special votes.
There are some very interesting numbers emerging.
David confirmed that Parliament has the potential to extend to 132 seats once the specials are counted, however incredibly unlikely.
📊 Based on the modelling:
•🇳🇿 Wairarapa has a 70% likelihood of remaining in National hands.
•📈 NZ First has a 70% likelihood of retaining its party vote seat once specials are included.
•🤞 Hamilton East is looking pretty much home, although nothing is guaranteed until every vote is counted.
But here's where things get particularly interesting...
If we end up with a 65–65 Parliament, the Opportunity Party (OPP) could find itself in an incredibly important position.
And I think there's a much bigger opportunity here than simply holding the balance of power.
OPP has spoken about its willingness to work constructively across the House. This is precisely the sort of situation where that commitment could really count.
💰 With the prospect of another election and a potential $180 MILLION taxpayer bill hanging over the country, there is a very real incentive for everyone to find a way forward.
Let's be honest: no one wants to be the party that brings Parliament to a standstill and sends New Zealanders back to the polls at a cost of $180 million.
If OPP genuinely means what it says about working constructively across the House, this is an opportunity to demonstrate that commitment in practice.
My view is that the prospect of OPP refusing to engage constructively in finding a way forward looks very difficult to reconcile with the position it has publicly put forward.
🤝 This is an opportunity for collaboration, not confrontation.
Nothing is guaranteed until every special vote is counted, but if the numbers land at 65–65, OPP could have a pivotal role in determining what happens next.
And with $180 million potentially at stake, the incentive to find a constructive way forward is hard to ignore.
Let's see what the final numbers bring!
#nzpol
@Junior75D@dbseymour You and I both know Tim isn't his father but if you want to play that game. Every single person on earth is related to or associated with a pedo, including you
Conversations will serve us far better than burying our heads in the sand and not talking to people whose views are different.
Do I believe the lack of actual conversation from some politicians hurt them? Absolutely.
Whether you like @dbseymour or not , the fact remains that even as deputy PM he made the time to have his views heard by some people who had only listened to MSM.
And I really do believe David's willingness to converse and answer questions from viewers helped ACT gain votes.
Rather than get upset by the people that didn't vote the way you did or wanted them to, expand your thinking. It doesn't mean those people are wrong for voting for what they believed in just because you didn't get the result you wanted. It just means they have different values to you.
@Nafeesahxf@snapdragon8cx2 You believe in Allah. I won't be rewarded by some bullshit I don't believe in. Stop gaslighting people with your religious beliefs
@PhiggyPhig The people asking have had the leftist mainstream media in their back pocket for the last three years promoting all kinds of nonsense. Some of you seem to have forgotten that.
@KiwiAly TPM are politicians trying to get back in. Those behind the split the vote campaign are not.
Of course they had to buy advertising in a way TPM didn't have to.
Dear Muslims,
Please stay in Muslim countries for Ramadan.
Please don't expect me to not eat because you choose not to.
Please don't expect me to avoid drinking to appease your feelings.
Don't assume my want/need for food and drink is because I want to 'tempt' you. You're irrelevant to my life.
As a non Muslim I will eat and drink as I see fit, in my country.
A little respect and consideration for my country, culture and our way of life will go a long way.
.
@TheZeitgeistNZ He spearheaded a campaign that had already been started by the left two months earlier. Fight fire with fire and in the case of dealing with those standing in the Māori seats he's against he played their game. And seems to have won.
Yesterday’s election confirmed what so many already knew -National’s list MPs were never getting back in. The maths never lies. The writing had been on the wall for a long long time. Losing talented people is incredibly sad and i'm gutted for some of them.
But strategic voting helped National win electorates and create an overhang to counter the left’s almost flawlessly executed overhang strategy. Without it the centre-right would have little chance of forming the next government. The left used the rules of MMP. The right had to do the same to have a chance.
The numbers show a 20% increase in vote splitting on the right from the last election. The message clearly gained traction and thankfully has given the centre-right a real chance of forming the next government.
Yet 706,000 party votes still went to National without adding seats beyond its electorate wins. Essentially wasted votes.
I do wonder whether @NZNationalParty should have understood that maths and been more upfront about it with voters. Once the list seats were out of reach the success of the right bloc should have become the priority.
We can be sad about losing good people and still recognise why strategic voting made sense. The maths doesn’t change to suit party loyalties.
For me this comes back to the future we want for New Zealand.
We should remember the damage history shows socialist and communist economic policies have done when they crush incentives to build and invest. They shrink the pie and drive out talent and capital. Then politicians act surprised when productivity falls and living standards go backwards.
Sometimes I think the left forgets how much our living standards depend on businesses creating jobs and wealth. You cannot keep promising to spend more without backing the people who make that possible.
At ZURU we employ hundreds of people here and plan to grow that to thousands over the next decade. Around 99.5% of our projected revenue of more than $10 billion next year will come from overseas. We are fighting to bring more of that wealth home and create opportunities for talented Kiwis to build careers and eventually businesses of their own.
We need more companies doing that. More investment. More well-paid jobs. A bigger tax base to pay for better hospitals and schools. Higher living standards for everyone and better support for our most vulnerable.
I want young people to see a future here and families to get ahead. That takes a country willing to back people who build things and create wealth.
That is what I care about. Far more than any one party.
At the end of the day I want NZ to kick ass.