Milton Friedman

Tweets Reflect Personal Views

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

NZ Election 2026 – my electorate calls + projected House
BASED ON 1News Verian poll (23–27 Sep) + my seat-by-seat predictions.
Electorate seats (71):
National 36 · Labour 27 · Greens 3 · ACT 2 · Te Pāti Māori 3

National (36):
Botany, East Coast Bays, Kaipara ki Mahurangi, Maungakiekie, North Shore, Napier, Northcote, Northland, Pakuranga, Takanini, Upper Harbour, Whangaparāoa, Whangārei, Coromandel, Hamilton East, Hamilton West, Mount Maunganui, Papakura, Port Waikato, Rotorua, Taupō, Tauranga, Waikato, East Cape, Rangitīkei, Taranaki–King Country, Tukituki, Ilam, Invercargill, Kaikōura, Rangitata, Selwyn, Southland, Waitaki, Waimakariri, Whanganui

Labour (27):
Glendene, Henderson, Māngere, Manurewa, Mount Albert, Mount Roskill, Ōtāhuhu, Waitākere, New Plymouth, Palmerston North, Hutt South, Kapiti, Kenepuru, Remutaka, Wellington Bays, Wairarapa, Banks Peninsula, Christchurch Central, Christchurch East, Dunedin, Nelson, Taieri, West Coast–Tasman, Wigram, Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, Te Tai Hauāuru, Te Tai Tonga

Greens (3): Auckland Central, Wellington North, Te Tai Tokerau

ACT (2): Epsom, Tāmaki

Te Pāti Māori (3): Hauraki-Waikato, Waiariki, Tāmaki Makaurau

Projected House (Sainte-Laguë):
National 36 · Labour 34 · Greens 20 · ACT 13 · NZ First 11 · Opportunity 7 · Te Pāti Māori 3
Left bloc 64 · Right bloc 60 · Total 124 (4 overhang) · Majority 63

The hinge is Opportunity.
On current numbers they sit on 6% and hold the balance of power. But if they land even fractionally under the 5% threshold — say 4.9% — and win no electorate, their votes are wasted. The entire allocation shifts. The right bloc would then clear a majority on its own. One percentage point either side of that threshold completely rewrites who can form a government.
That’s the board game right now.
#nzpol

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

Do a bit more digging around the rort and corruption that went on in 2020 around Southseas Healthcare, they ain’t an organisation id be shouting from rooftops. They’re actually frauds and surprisingly no one went after there BS like they should of, with there Labour Party MPs running false flags and the gate keeping bureaucrat ticket clippers

https://t.co/YmIEKfElec

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

@ShaiNavot The largest block or major party vote ?

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

@ShaiNavot Shai where to TOP turn too on November 8 ?

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

@JonesVincentt Now do interest deductibility

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

@Pukeko65 @PronouncedHare What do we believe the 25.9 or the 29 tonight.

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

On 29.79% national doesn’t win list seats under the premise that they win around 36 electorates.
People saying 40 electorates are living a fantasy.
National have been attacked so hard by the Firsties there vote is in danger of plummeting toward 2002 proportions not that low. But there’s a reason why Luxon changed his mechandise logo on his jacket for Stand up on Saturday the overhang is material.

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

@Sharks771 @PouTepou TVNZ will give us a better idea tonight

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

@PouTepou @Sharks771 https://t.co/hx0RBTAGBX

Interesting poll this morning

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

@Sharks771 @PouTepou Yep

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

@PouTepou @Sharks771 Trish spot on wit her analysis

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

@Sharks771 @PouTepou No idea mate but quietly hoping for a dip in support for TOP to the 5%

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

@PronouncedHare Panic has set in with the merchandise, I’m here for it and the electorate will tell him so on November 7.
Stand for something otherwise fall for everything, it’s the type of PM he’s been this term.

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

@nothatpaulallen He got the sack for what ? Nothing to do with Mill Road. How is it that him being sacked is even relevant to this conversation?

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

@nothatpaulallen @PouTepou @RichardHills_ @GregPresland @cjsbishop Now do Michael Wood

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

@Incrediblehug @actparty Well Hipkins your leader said he won’t touch landlords

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

@Strange_G @shubzlive G that’s Hone Harawira son Tihei.
He’s on the spectrum autistic mega memory remembers crazy stuff like your birthdate etc age, he’s a bit of an icon in Sth Auckland!

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

@PouTepou @nothatpaulallen @RichardHills_ @GregPresland @cjsbishop I won’t stand idly by when I see Hills spout propaganda time after time. He needs to acknowledge its successive govts have been found wanting. Hills in fact his a giant hypocrite who’s a lion on X but when it comes to a boardroom he’s a mouse.

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

@nothatpaulallen @PouTepou @RichardHills_ @GregPresland @cjsbishop Talking drivel that they canceled the project too ? They’re both the same as each other Pepsi Coke it don’t matter. The only one talking drivel is Hills

[Milton Friedman @aaronrodgent]

@PouTepou Hahaha 🤣 I’m in bed I haven’t watched one since 2010 😂