auroch

[auroch @auroch______]

@ZacGoldsmith The sad thing here is that @ZacGoldsmith is probably intelligent enough that he understands full well that the two positions are not mutually exclusive.

Which moves us to the next question: why, then, is ZG adopting this posture?

Answer: purely cynical grifting.

[auroch @auroch______]

@AaronBastani "I agree that XYZ would be nice, but your proposed method will not achieve XYZ (and will actually make things worse)" is too complicated a thought for many current political commentators.

[auroch @auroch______]

@NicholasTyrone I would love it if Iran became a liberal democracy.

I don't think that the USA bombing Iran will lead to Iran becoming a liberal democracy.

(And will have numerous bad side effects instead. See: history.)

Do you really, honestly, not understand that this is the argument?

[auroch @auroch______]

@marcusveniquis @DespoticInroad @Stsantek No. Just no. The world is not that simple. Pragmatism surely involves recognising complexity. For instance: "action X seems on the face of it to have some points in favour of it, but if I actually do X, myriad bad consequences are very likely to follow".

[auroch @auroch______]

@SamCoatesSky @SkyNews It's not good analysis, it's extremely poor analysis

(e.g. completely inadequate grasp of how to think about complex counterfactuals re: Burnham)

but it's written in that "now a grown-up centrist is speaking" argot that journalists seem congenitally incapable of resisting.

[auroch @auroch______]

@mayerandrew "incapable of considering hard choices in matters of war and peace"

is so hilarious here, because

"the huge military power my country is allied with should go and bomb the bad people, and then things will be good" is the absolute easiest, most analysis-free position.

[auroch @auroch______]

@mayerandrew The fact that anybody who was a vaguely sentient adult in 2001 and 2003 could still be going down this cognitive garden path is wild.

"Maybe a powerful country unilaterally bombing the shit out of this won't magically make things better" =/= "I'm defending this abhorrent regime"

[auroch @auroch______]

@Gargant34515 @EspressoLucid @AaronBastani That is:

Setting aside rights and wrongs, and talking purely analytically:

the question about "ethnic tribalism" boils down to whether ethnicity is causally primary, vs. a situation where "normal" voter interests are causally primary, and the outcome of that tracks ethnicity.

[auroch @auroch______]

@Gargant34515 @EspressoLucid @AaronBastani Well...

1. I agree very starkly divided ethnic bloc votes would be bad

2. my only point above was just to disagree with this narrative that the by-election result was "ethnic tribalism"

but

3. I'm not sure the opposed interest-cum-ethnic blocs are as clear-cut as you think.

[auroch @auroch______]

@Gargant34515 @EspressoLucid @AaronBastani that's different to "ethnic tribalism".

That would indicate that voters are simply delivered as a largely unthinking "bloc" *for the sole reason of loyalty to an ethnic leader*, rather than anything explicable in terms of rational interests, preferences, values, etc.

[auroch @auroch______]

@Gargant34515 @EspressoLucid @AaronBastani But then what you're describing is a normal feature of democracies: identifiable interest-groups -- renters, retirees, farmers, etc.

With immigration policy, for obvious reasons, interests track ethnic demographics to a significant (although far from complete) degree. But:

[auroch @auroch______]

@EspressoLucid @AaronBastani Political Party A: "We don't really like Ethnicity X and so have policies that directly go against most of their interests"

Ethnicity X: <tends not to vote for Political Party A>

Very Clever People: "omg ethnic tribal voting!!!"

[auroch @auroch______]

@PolitlcsUK Tragic levels of cope here.

"We have to learn lessons from [losing the election]."

The lessons:

"The voters got it wrong and it is a total mystery why they voted Green. Anyway, let's not think about that any further."

[auroch @auroch______]

@realzoestrimpel Water is wet. But when it's frozen it won't immediately make you wet.

Grass is green. But in some particularly hot summers it can be yellow.

Anti-black racism is abhorrent. But that shouldn't be used to silence valid discussion of activist excesses.

Etc etc

[auroch @auroch______]

@DrewPavlou @GoodwinMJ Unless your theory is that there are large numbers of 1st/2nd gen South Asian migrant women in this constituency thinking gee, I'd just love to vote for the "we don't like migrants and Muslims" party if only my husband wasn't influencing me - ?

[auroch @auroch______]

@DrewPavlou @GoodwinMJ "Totally rigged" - stupid claim.

Even if these alleged instances of "family voting" hadn't happened those votes just turn into either no vote, or vote for other non-Reform party.

Similarly, even if the Greens hadn't stood at all, those votes just go Labour, to block Reform.

[auroch @auroch______]

@fitzmagoodness @AyoCaesar If I have red hair and the "We Dont Like Gingers" party stands for election in my constituency it's not exactly some kind of "block vote" conspiracy if i think "yeah I'll probably not vote for these lads" is it

[auroch @auroch______]

@KingsGambit_ @humng392546 @LeoKearse Yes: labour and greens have a fairly cross-ethnic coalition, whereas ethnic minority voters show little support for the party/candidate known (fairly or unfairly) to be hostile to migrants and minorities. Not exactly a surprise, nor an indication of non-policy-based voting.

[auroch @auroch______]

@Ruben_Amorim20 @ChinoUTD Yes 👍