austyn smith

‘Making Retirement Safer’ Founder of Austyn Smith Associates, award winning financial planning firm. 30 Years experience. Loves F1, Miles Davis, and good food

[austyn smith @austyn_smith]

Honoured to have been awarded winner of the ‘Adviser Firm of the Year’ South East for 2024, at the Professional Adviser awards.

[Bloomberg Opinion @opinion]

The bond-yield breakout is about much more than inflation, says @johnauthers, as another edifice of the post-Volcker era is cracking https://t.co/cBi0B0qJ87

[Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook]

Here's how the MSCI World index would do without its top 10 largest stocks, and without Nvidia.

SocGen via @johnauthers

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Although significantly higher yields are a common theme across advanced economies, there have been notable country-specific trends.
Take the UK, for example.
The increase in yields there has matched the US, leading to a slightly higher overall level for its 10-year Gilt.
However, on a day when the yield rose by 11 basis points, the British pound depreciated, including relative to the currencies of other advanced economies experiencing smaller yield increases.
#economy #markets #bonds #econtwitter #uk #gilts

[austyn smith @austyn_smith]

Better than Beethoven #btb Coldplay double album is so good , melody makes me cry , but I’m not sad , it’s just out of this world

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Having seen the Federal Reserve initiate its cutting cycle with an unusually large 50 basis points, markets are now debating whether the next cut in early November will be 25 or 50 bps – this despite, according to Chair Powell, the economy being “in a good place” and the Fed's “growing confidence that the strength in the labor market can be maintained.”
The markets’ reaction is consistent with a broader theme that has been in play for some time – that of the Fed providing insurance for an ever-widening set of risks:
https://t.co/3fe5L8m5rN
#economy #markets #federalreserve @FT #econtwitter

[Bloomberg Markets @markets]

Don't let Fed noise drown out the signal from China, says @johnauthers. 'Japanification' is looming ever larger https://t.co/4oKy4kwpt8

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Proper and credible communication is a vital tool of central bank policymaking:
While undue interest rate volatility is often beneficial for the bottom line of Wall Street firms and for market discussions, it can be harmful to the economy and the standing of the US at the center of the global economic and financial system.
That's why it’s important that, at the conclusion of today’s Federal Reserve events, we end up with a much better feel for how the world’a most powerful central banks assesses economic prospects and policy implications.
#economy #centralbanks #FederalReserve #econtwitter

[Morgan Housel @morganhousel]

"Schopenhauer’s ideal is to be wealthy enough to have expansive free time and the intellectual capabilities to fill it with contemplation and activity in the service of mankind." - Derren Brown

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Three main factors have driven US stock markets in the recent past. Here is where they stand today:

https://t.co/vtw61l6nLi

#markets #economy #investing #investors #econtwitter #stocks @ProSyn

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

This Bloomberg table summarizes the latest US macroeconomic data. Its bottom line is more reassuring for the Federal Reserve and fixed income markets, including compared to yesterday’s data releases.
#economy #expntwitter

[James Timpson @JamesTCobbler]

Question from a customer yesterday. “Why are your colleagues so friendly?” Simple to answer. “We don’t always get it right, but when you trust someone and are kind to them, they perform better than if you don’t trust them and you’re not kind.” This is Upside Down Management.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Wondering how a small miss on the US #inflation numbers can result in such a spike in yields on US government #bonds (2- and 10-year below)?

A lot of it has to do with the extent to which #markets had embraced, subject to limited critical thinking, the narrative of a very soft landing that allows for sizeable early cuts by the #FederalReserve.

Today’s data release does more than serve as a soft reminder of the challenges of the last mile in the inflation battle. It also points to complex analytical issues (such as the level of the neutral rate) and the insensitivity of certain sectors of the #economy (e.g., services) to higher interest rates.

[austyn smith @austyn_smith]

So proud to be on the short list for the South East , good luck everyone !🙏🙏🙏

[Citywire New Model Adviser @NewModelAdviser]

Revealed: the advice firms in the running to win at the @NewModelAdviser regional awards! 🎉
https://t.co/ccsOWBAj4a

[Citywire New Model Adviser @NewModelAdviser]

Revealed: the advice firms in the running to win at the @NewModelAdviser regional awards! 🎉
https://t.co/ccsOWBAj4a

[Citywire New Model Adviser @NewModelAdviser]

@NewModelAdviser's Top 35 Next Generation Advisers celebrates some of the very best young financial planners in the country. The winners are LIVE on our website!👇
A huge congratulations to this year's winners⭐️
https://t.co/VXbzOjoejK

[James Timpson @JamesTCobbler]

All dogs who come to our office are now given the official job title of “director of entertainment”. Last week we averaged 6 dogs a day, and while they can’t answer the phones and do the accounts, they do add to our culture of fun and kindness.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

The crazy #volatility in US Treasuries continued today with a 15 basis point move up in yields for the 7-, 10-, 20- and 30-year #bonds (table below).
Per Bloomberg reporting from earlier (also below), this type of volatility is problematic for the functioning of a broad range of #markets, resource allocation throughout the #economy , and the standing of the US in global finance.

#econtwitter

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

The UK GDP growth numbers came in slightly better than expected, though not enough to lift concerns about the risks of an upcoming recession.
Specifically:
Q-3 GDP was unchanged from Q-2 (and better than the consensus forecast of a 0.1% contraction).
The month-on-month growth was 0.2% (above the consensus forecast of 0.1%).
On an annual basis, GDP growth is now 0.6% (0.5% expected).
Finally, the sector variability in growth rates was notably contained.
#economy #econtwitter

[John Authers @johnauthers]

The unemployment rate has climbed enough since April for the Fed to pivot from its focus on inflation, says @conorsen. Policymakers need to start signaling a willingness to cut rates in 2024 https://t.co/ra67ZT3FVN via @opinion