Averell Mouch

Just have fun with @Polymarket / @zscdao member

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

Je viens de gagner $100.00 sur @Polymarket !

Rejoignez-moi et prouvez votre prédiction par des actes : https://t.co/pE37rumvGS

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

@Polymarket is too hard

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

Interesting one

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? https://t.co/rM0PCE1Rnt

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

Road to stars @Polymarket

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

@goatyishere Soon ? 👀

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

@0xsolvix @Polymarket Wen

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

https://t.co/FKso1xEtBp
bet with me !!

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

@nursexxl @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade because we don't have 100 000$

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

ELON MUSK vs SAM ALTMAN @Polymarket

1/ Hot take: even if Musk "wins" the OpenAI trial, the prediction market probably resolves NO. The resolution criteria are stacked against him in a way most people aren't pricing.

2/ Musk is asking that ~$130B in "ill-gotten gains" be disgorged to the OpenAI nonprofit foundation, not paid to him personally. The market requires a net monetary award TO Musk. Money flowing to a third-party charity ≠ plaintiff payout.

3/ Procedural posture matters: the jury verdict on liability is advisory only — Judge Gonzalez Rogers makes the final call. Liability phase wraps ~May 21. The remedies phase could easily stretch past Dec 31, 2026, which auto-resolves NO.

4/ On the merits: 24 of 26 original claims already dropped. Private donor standing on charitable trust claims is historically narrow under CA law. And Musk admitting this week that xAI "partly distills" OpenAI's models didn't help his "for humanity" framing.

5/ Structural seller of YES around 15–25%. The edge isn't really on the merits — it's that the market's criteria don't map onto the relief Musk actually seeks.

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

Je viens de gagner $255.00 sur @Polymarket !

Rejoignez-moi et prouvez votre prédiction par des actes : https://t.co/knXiQOlwn2

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

@CarOnPolymarket 2:1 PSG

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

@poly_data Geopolitics

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

@UxGsol Genius 🤣🤣

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

@base Based

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

I am in positive again ! This game is soo hard ! @Polymarket

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

Nice, Nice, Nice

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

Je viens de gagner $129.49 sur @Polymarket !

Rejoignez-moi et prouvez votre prédiction par des actes : https://t.co/fKtWYZNDZU

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Nice

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

@chessxyz Great job

[Averell Mouch @averell_sol]

@zscdao I am too