Avipreet

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[Avipreet @avipreet]

OI and FII/DII data analysis as of 5th June EoD. Data sourced from #SENSIBULL.

FII/DII Data:

FII - Change in OI is slightly bearish. FII sold calls and bought puts. However, the quantum for both is not very high. FII continued to sell in cash and futures segment. Added 471 cr worth of shorts to existing Future shorts, sold close to 8800 cr in cash. FIIs have sold close to 32000 cr in the first week of June itself in cash.

Pro - Change in OI is bullish. Pro traders bought higher number of calls than puts

Client - Change in OI is bearish which is construed as positive for markets in general. Client sold both calls and puts but sold higher number of calls

Summary - Change in OI is neutral and not representative of the big down move witnessed in US markets on 5th June.

[Avipreet @avipreet]

@Mtg231021 While the promoters are selling the FIIs are continuously buying into MTAR. Do have a look at the FII stake

[Avipreet @avipreet]

4th June end of day #NIFTY analysis for 5th June

Another grueling day for #NIFTY traders, but this time for the directional ones

1. Nifty opened gap down, immediately took support at 23250 and ground its way up to a previous resistance of 23450-460.
2. To further compound misery of option buyers, #NIFTY Futures were lagging Nifty spot throughout the day. This meant that Nifty call premiums were not increasing when Nifty was going up. Even at EoD , while Nifty closed up a royal 11 points, Nifty futures closed in the red (-4 ).

In summary, today's trading range was entirely within yesterday. This narrow range accompanied by a dip of 2.5 pct in VIX meant that option buyers had a poor day especially in #SENSEX which had a weekly expiry today.

So, while yesterday's bullish undertone was not lost, nothing was gained either. Towards the end of the day. we did see a spike in call premiums but treat this as an observation at best for now.

Let's look at data inputs available as of end of day today

1. Change in OI is neutral. No clear trend seen here as FIIs sold equal number of calls / puts. Pros bought equal number of calls and puts. However, outstanding OI for both FII and Pro traders remains largely bearish. The sell figures for FIIs in futures and cash continue to be negative.

2. Price Action - As pointed out yesterday, Bank Nifty had a follow up day on its positive price action confirming the bullish hammer. Nifty closed slightly above the dragonfly doji but this cannot be construed as a confirmation yet. In summary, price action can be considered neutral to positive going into tomorrow.

3. External factors
a) Positive news coming through on the US- Iran war front (for the nth time) with Trump signaling progress on peace talks. Crude has dipped as a result. Can be construed as positive

b) RBI Event - This may be the game changer for giving us a trendy market tomorrow. While the expectation is of a non-event, it will be worth tuning into the RBI Governor speech at 10 AM IST. If there is no change to interest rates, the tone of Gov speech is not very hawkish and there is relief provided via any regulatory step(s), Bank Nifty will rally and give Nifty the opportunity to cause a good short covering rally. (All stars have to align). However, if there is any increase in interest rates which is highly unlikely or any hawkish note for inflation in his speech, we may see a bloodbath in the markets.

Trading Plan for tomorrow

1. Wait till 10:30 am (or end of Governor speech) before committing to any trade. Markets may be volatile at the open, prior to and during the speech.
Once a trend is observed, will trade in direction of the trade. For me, immediate Nifty target is 23800 and 24000 which may be taken out tomorrow itself if the global cues remain positive and supported by the RBI Gov speech. I will book my positional trades partially at 23800 and rest at 24000. I continue to trade with a positive bias as explained in earlier posts on X.

2. Below, 23150, I will wait for negative price action and take bearish trades with targets of 23000 and below. I will be looking at Bank Nifty for cues tomorrow in order to establish a trend.

3. If we open Gap Up, will do nothing and wait till 10:30 am and decide on levels based on price action. May book partial profits for ongoing positional trades if we open at 23800 by any chance.
For Gap Down, again will do nothing and wait for 10:30 am and trade per price action. Key levels for Nifty shown below.

Note: All of the above is my own analysis and trading plan for Nifty and other indices, this should not be construed as trading advice in any manner.

[Avipreet @avipreet]

@AshwinBadri2 Very aptly put

[Avipreet @avipreet]

3rd June end of day analysis for 4th June

Today was a brutal day for #Nifty traders and overall markets in general. On such days, one feels lucky to be on the right side of the index move and risk management skills are tested to the core.

The analysis posted yesterday at https://t.co/6nnTXTxFa9 did not really hold good apart from the fact that we did see a complete V shape recovery from the last support level mentioned in the post i.e. 23150. Also, the index did end with a bullish undertone.

There were multiple factors at play today:
1. Overnight, tensions flared between Iran and other ME countries with fresh reports of Iran attack on Kuwait coming in.
2. Bloomberg published a news article stating that RBI may have sold some #Gold assets to stabilize INR
3. IT Index was down and out with bellwethers #TCS and #INFY down 9 pct (at one point of time) and 4.5 pct.
4. FII sell numbers were already negative as of yesterday.

Inspite of all of this, NIFTY somehow showed a mercurial recovery from the 23150 gap fill level. This was something that fellow traders @rathi_amit , @HiteshRandhawa were rooting for and it happened. Hats off to them! While the sharp recovery came at the back of a resurgent Bank Nifty ,a RBI clarification and a #LTCG waiver rumor all of which could not have come in a minute too late, it still left a sour taste for folks who were both long or short as it ended up eating stop losses on either side.

So, where do we go from here.

1. Change in OI - Neutral to Bullish as seen in the OI change snapshot from #SENSIBULL Pro Traders change in OI is bullish today

2. Price Action - Positive
Nifty ended the day with a dragonfly doji on daily tf. Construed as positive.
Nifty's biggest constituent Bank Nifty ended with a Bullish hammer forming a double or rather triple bottom defending 53000. Bank Nifty could lead the way now and surge ahead pushing Nifty as well

Directional View - Positive on Nifty, again will stay long with immediate targets of 23800 once the 23500-550 zone is crossed. If today's low 23150 is broken, will look to short intraday with target of 23000-22900. Positional view is still long.

Note: All of the above is my own analysis and trading plan for Nifty and other indices, this should not be construed as trading advice in any manner.

[Avipreet @avipreet]

#NIFTY
2nd June end of day analysis for 3rd June

1. Good bullish candle formed today at key gap fill support level. Today's low should be SL for those who chose to take positional longs. For conservative bulls, 23350 should be partial square off level. Price action points to bullish continuation for tomorrow.

2. Outstanding OI for next expiry has a bearish tinge to it, given the huge bullish positions for Client vs bearish positions for FIIs. [Shown Below] However, I will choose price action to carry more weight for day after expiry.

Directional View - For a gap down scenario, look for bullish reversals around 23370-23420 zone. I do expect some consolidation around 23500 zone, once we sustain above 23500 comfortably with a 15/30 min close, next target should be 23800 where the next resistance should come in. Key Levels marked below

For a flat opening, look for a breakout above 23600 levels for 23800 as immediate target.

If 23350 is broken on the downside, expect 23230,23150 to be tested before the next target of 23000.

I will be trading with a bullish bias for tomorrow up to 23800 where I will review. Of course, standard disclaimer of external overnight event applies which will invalidate this view.
#NIFTY #NSE

For how the 2nd of June expiry analysis played out today, refer to https://t.co/s705ejxnWb

[Avipreet @avipreet]

#NIFTY - How our view played out ?

The view shared yesterday played out per expectations for the 2nd June Nifty expiry.

1. As expected, a gap down opening was followed with a bullish hammer formation on the 5 min TF whose low was not broken throughout the day.

2. Nifty was stuck in a 100 point range which was broken in the 2nd half. Eventually, Nifty settled near the 23500 magnet level and closed there. This was also per analysis shared yesterday.

While the daily candle on both Nifty and Bank Nifty looks bullish , will have to wait for tomorrow for a follow up move. Will provide an end of day market view once the FII buy/sell figures and OI changes are available later tonight.

[Avipreet @avipreet]

1st June 2026
#NIFTY broke through the crucial psychological level of 23500 today without any issue. Also broke a small trendline support shown below. However, it is close to a potential support level of 23250.

1. Any gap down may result in an immediate reversal given that we are oversold. Also 23500 should act like a magnet and attract straddle sellers for tomorrow's expiry

2. Also, a lot of call writing happened one day prior to 2nd June expiry which was very high as a percentage of total calls written for ATM and near ATM strikes.
For instance: Out of 50 L calls written at 23400, 48 L were written today, and 73 L out of 89 L at 23500. This gives an opportunity for short covering as calls written today would not have a premium cushion to sustain if there are bullish spikes.

Directional View - Look for bullish reversals in case of a gap down supported by reversal seen on smaller timeframes. Can play Nifty positionally long if 23800 is reclaimed.

For Flat opening, will look for a range to be formed and play breakout / breakdown of the range. Note that 23150-23260 is a gap fill zone where Nifty can potentially find support. Below this, 23000 and below will again open up

For Gap Up opening - Observe OI Buildup and price action #NIFTY #NSE

[Avipreet @avipreet]

https://t.co/korPl9tikE

[Avipreet @avipreet]

@BaskerRamachan1 On my watchlist too, sector tailwinds present here as well.

[Avipreet @avipreet]

@KirenRijiju Sir, what we need right now is a concentrated effort to remediate and resolve this issue rapidly and in the most transparent manner. The whataboutery and political mudslinging from either side can wait. People are losing faith.

[Avipreet @avipreet]

@AshwinBadri2 Good stuff Ashwin !

[Avipreet @avipreet]

@Mtg231021 The stock dropped 15% because management flagged near-term margin pressure (50-100 bps) due to rising raw material costs, especially copper prices hitting the Room AC business.

[Avipreet @avipreet]

@Swapnja_Sharmaa Thanks for sharing !! Hope you are doing well and come back stronger with a breakout :-).

[Lonetrader @dkcrpl]

@in_tradingview @tradingview
Gus you have stooped to a pathetic level. My premium plan is valid till 2028 and all of a sudden you have downgraded it without any intimation. Now i cant store than 500 symbols in any watchlist against 1000 nos earlier.
@thechartist26 @iManasArora

[Basker Ramachandran @BaskerRamachan1]

@in_tradingview - As such, your results date hardly ever is right. Now if you keep annoying your subscribers like this, as and when a competition walks in, you will lose everyone.

@RichardMoglen - Please prioritize release of #DEEPVUE in India

[Avipreet @avipreet]

@thechartist26 Some stocks are wearing noise cancellation headphones

[Avipreet @avipreet]

@volklub @HondaCarIndia Still waiting for a proper hybrid, not a hybrid logo from them

[Avipreet @avipreet]

@MCXIndialtd , please reintroduce Copper Mini contracts in line with what we have for other metals. Will need to higher volumes and better price discovery with more market participation. Current lot size dissuades the small investor to trade here.