awackywabbit

Gen X Christian, Gamer, Stock & Options Trader, Labrador owner, and Life Long Nerd

[TSDR Trading @TSDR_Trading]

Hunny P $OUST

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

KRE: good driver for the RUS.....Both putting together range expansion out of low vol point, but KRE takes the cake.

[awackywabbit @awackywabbit]

@FTMDaily @FTMDaily Jerry you are a HUGE part of my success. Have been a memeber of FTM since 2016 you changed my life :)

[awackywabbit @awackywabbit]

95% of traders fail. I am among the 5% that succeed. I beleived in myself enough to walk away from a high 6 figure salary two years ago to focus on something I had grown to love more then my almsot 20 year career. It was worth it.

[Ouster @ousterlidar]

A traffic signal that actuates on radar knows something is at the stop bar. It does not know if that something is a sedan, a cyclist, or a person in a wheelchair waiting to cross

Rev8 OS1 Max resolves all three with 500 ft advance detection, in native color. The classification is not inferred from a separate camera feed and aligned after the fact. Color, depth, and motion arrive together, so the controller acts on what is actually in the intersection, not a best guess

[Dietl @Dietl_rd]

Three months ago, $OUST was trading above $17 per share. Today, it is trading in the $63 range during the overnight session. It took a lot to hold it to this point, since $17 was already more than a 300% return, lol. We are up 40% in a week.

There are questions about valuation, profit-taking, and whether such a rapid rise could lead to an equally dramatic drop. Sure—maybe, perhaps not. I still think this is just the beginning.

There are at least 100–200 companies trading at higher P/S multiples than Ouster's, based on roughly 18× 2026 revenue. Based on 2027 revenue expectations and a 22× P/S multiple, Ouster is a $100 stock—a company expected to break even and reach profitability in 2028. Not to mention its positioning within its TAM and the enormous scope of Physical AI.

Unless LiDAR becomes part of everyday life, we haven't seen anything yet. Take profits, of course, but I believe this is only the beginning.

[Kunal Desai @kunal00]

$OUST $AMBA opening dips getting bought this robot theme might stick fora few

[awackywabbit @awackywabbit]

$OUST & $AEVA getting a lot of DM's about these. This is when you want to buy the stocks when they are making highs and breaking out of year long bases. If $OUST gets the $AEVA price to sales multiple it's $250-$300 easily. 10 to 1 reverse split in 23 makes it seem more expensive then it actually is. it will be profitable next year you're early. Trade $AEVA own $OUST

[Alex Jones Industrial Average @AlexJonesIA]

Shout to TradingView for now showing overnight pricing. 🤌

[awackywabbit @awackywabbit]

@gfc4 Edge to me is the ability to supervise yourself and be a good manager of your emotions. Learning from all your mistakes and working hard enough each day to get a little better. It is no different from any other career. Good self leadership is the edge.

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

109 new ATH today (listed shares). Interestingly, 207 making YTD highs and 117 making YTD lows. Would not touch that last group w a ten foot pole!

[PBA @801010athlete]

Trading is hard. Anyone sugar coating that is doing a disservice. Keep grinding.

[awackywabbit @awackywabbit]

Added some risk back on this afternoon. Strong PA across the market. Managed to only drawdown 2% from highs so if we get a follow through tomorrow my accounts will be in good shape. Will add to strongest positions this week on strength.

[TSDR Trading @TSDR_Trading]

Thanks to the Deepdive bros with no positions!

$OUST

[Ouster @ousterlidar]

More channels means more vertical resolution: more points on every object. The OS1 Max packs 256 channels and reaches up to 500m. At an intersection, that is the difference between a few stray returns on a pedestrian and enough detail to know exactly where they are and which direction they are moving

This is a drive near Valencia Street in San Francisco at 32, 64, 128, and 256 channels. With 256 channels, the Rev8 OS1 Max resolves the scene at a high enough resolution to look like a live video, with every point carrying true color alongside 3D geometry

[Marc Lehman @markflowchatter]

CTA updates: ~ GSCO ~ Also known as "we've alll made insane $$ go enjoy the summer:

Over the next 1 week…

Flat tape: Sellers $4.46B($1.13B out of the US)

Up tape: Sellers $0.97B ($1.83B out of the US)

Down tape: Sellers $20.52B ($6.05B out of the US)

Over the next 1 month…

Flat tape: Buyers $2.91B ($1.55B into the US)

Up tape: Buyers $38.84B ($2.74B into the US)

Down tape: Sellers $143.70B ($54.95B out of the US)

Coming into today, we estimate CTAs are long $46bn of US equities (65th percentile on 5y lookback). While current flow estimates aren't eye-popping (yet), the asymmetry is alarming... Over the next month we have CTAs as buyers of $2.3bn SPX in an up tape versus SELLERS of $46bn in a down tape.

[TheStockGuy @TheStockGuyTV]

You cant make this stuff up

The Pentagon delayed publicly announcing US strikes on Iran until after the market closed at 4pm on Friday to "reduce the immediate impact on financial markets."

Then last night, one hour before market futures opened, they announce a halt to strikes and that talks will continue this week

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

Last Saturday, I posted my “speedbump” concerns. This past wk, the negative news flow escalated quickly. The Semi Index was -7.9% despite $MU beating EPS by 16% & guiding 21% higher than consensus. Micron finished the wk -0.1% while S&P -2.0%, Nasdaq -4.6% & Mag7 -5.4%.

The news flow included:
1) $SPCX $20B bond offering & signing Reflection AI
2) $MSFT potentially hosting lower cost DeepSeek
3) GLM-5.2 being a credible alternative to Anthropic
4) Star AI researchers leaving $GOOG for competitors
5) $AAPL raising prices ~17-25% due to memory prices
6) US restrictions on US LLM model releases
7) Investment ramps from Samsung & Hynix
8) Stock market circuit breakers triggered in S. Korea
9) OpenAI potentially delaying their IPO into 2027
10) Big Private Credit redemptions at $APO $MS $ARES

On a positive note:
1) Headline PCE/core of 4.1%/3.4% were roughly inline
2) WTI Oil fell 10% to $69
3) 2/10yr bond yields declined 8 bps each

My concern is that equity markets were bad over the past week despite oil declining substantially along with bond yields. But a lot of position unwinding also occurred with the Morgan Stanley Momentum Long Index down 4.2% last week while their Short Index was up 3.2%.

This upcoming trading week is shortened with the July 4th holiday with no major earnings reports but several important economic reports could move rates and therefore the market. The JOLTS survey, non-farm payrolls report and to a lesser extent the ISM report could have an outsized impact given lighter than normal trading volumes. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s appearance at the ECB symposium on Wednesday is also likely to be scrutinized for clues around future Fed policy.

From a seasonality standpoint, while not as famous as the Santa Claus rally at year-end, statistically we are entering a strong period for stocks. This is probably caused by the inflow of funds into 401K plans at mid-year. The "12-Day Midyear Rally" as talked about by @AlmanacTrader encompasses the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days of July. Since 1985, Nasdaq has gained 2.5% and has been up a solid 78% of the time. Having said that, it will be interesting to see how the market responds to the flare up in hostilities in Iran this weekend.

In summary, my short-term “speedbump” concerns outlined last week in my posts on 6/20 and followed up on 6/22 remain about the upcoming mega-cap tech earnings season that starts in late July due to:
1) Token minimization
2) Competitive low cost open-sourced LLM models
3) Rising semiconductor cost impact on Q3 guidance

Longer-term, I am hopeful for a solid finish to 2026 due to:
1) Over 25% EPS growth for the S&P
2) Advent of Agentic AI requiring 10-100x more tokens
3) Torturous winding down of the Iran war
4) Kevin Warsh pushing back on rate hike expectations
But a series of short-terms make up the long-term and remaining flexible in thinking is important.

All the best in the week ahead and Happy July 4th!

[awackywabbit @awackywabbit]

@cfromhertz So sorry for your loss.