Bernard Aw

Economist for Asia Pacific at Coface

[Bernard Aw @AwBernard]

Caixin #PMI came in at 52.0 for May, reflecting modest #manufacturing growth, and below the pace seen in 2H20. This is consistent with NBS PMI, suggesting that industrial expansion is losing momentum, in line with a slowdown in #industrial output growth.

[Bernard Aw @AwBernard]

#Chinese companies tightened credit terms by 11 days on average to 75 in 2020, while distribution of #credit terms leaned towards a shorter rather than longer period, according to #Coface’s 2021 #China Corporate Payment Survey. Full report available here: https://t.co/sghZiDkOAT

[Bernard Aw @AwBernard]

#Coface's #China Payment Survey shows increased payment risks in #construction and #energy sectors. Read more in this article by #SCMP covering the findings of our latest survey: https://t.co/ecoEBnCaKd

[Bernard Aw @AwBernard]

#Coface upgraded the risk assessment for the #ICT sector in #China and South #Korea amid a brightening outlook for tech-related products globally. Read more in our latest Q1 Barometer report: https://t.co/8cx2XOAPlT

[Bernard Aw @AwBernard]

#China's trade action on #Australia's economy so far has muted macro impact, but likelihood of further action on #education and #tourism sectors could put about 2% of Australia's #GDP at risk. Read our analysis here: https://t.co/Mhf3e7aVN8

[Bernard Aw @AwBernard]

Analysis from Coface's @RubenNizard suggests that the #US $1.9t relief package can contribute up to $56b to a record deficit. Larger bilateral #trade deficits could be seen with Mexico, Brazil, #India, South #Korea, Germany and Saudi Arabia. Full report: https://t.co/nGIyuxPx0l

[Bernard Aw @AwBernard]

#China manufacturing #PMI from #NBS and #Caixin showed a seemingly divergence in March (51.9 vs 50.6), but looking at m/m changes show they are still moving together in the same direction (higher).

[Chris Williamson @WilliamsonChris]

Many of these multi-year highs in the PMIs for the eurozone reflect longer delivery times, which is one of the PMI's five components. But that should not detract from the fact the eurozone output and new orders are also rising at record rates ...

[Bernard Aw @AwBernard]

NBS #China #PMI showed business activity regain momentum in March, rising to highest for four months at 55.3. Continued growth was driven by accelerated output rise in all three major sectors, with #construction activity increasing at the fastest pace since 2018.

[Bernard Aw @AwBernard]

#China #NPC Key 2021 economic targets: #GDP >6%; 11m new jobs, #unemployment rate: ~5.5%; #CPI: ~3% https://t.co/MFuOZZM8Sr (CN)

[Bert Hofman（郝福满） @berthofmanecon]

RMB 3.65Trillion in LGU bonds.

[Eunice Yoon @onlyyoontv]

Premier says #China to invest “heavily” to boost its technology prowess. (R&D spending to grow by over 7% annually from 2021 to 2025 as part of country’s “14th Five-Year Plan”.) #tech

[Bernard Aw @AwBernard]

#China sets #2021 #GDP growth target at more than 6%, according to Premier Li Keqiang in his annual work report. https://t.co/DpB9aKQTa7

[Bernard Aw @AwBernard]

2021 #GDP target at #China's annual #NPC? If there is any, it could be far lower than expected. Provincial GDP targets set earlier in February suggest around +6.8%.

[Bernard Aw @AwBernard]

Latest Caixin #China #PMI signalled a weakening trend of #manufacturing growth, with February seeing a third straight month of lower headline PMI figure, albeit still above 50. Note: this PMI is adjusted to account for seasonal effects and also moving holidays like CNY.

[S&P Global PMI™ @SPGlobalPMI]

China manufacturing growth slipped even further in February, as the PMI fell to 50.9 (Jan: 51.5) to signal the slowest rate of improvement since last May. Lead times on inputs lengthened markedly amid raw material shortages and transport delays. Read more: https://t.co/rHJkcieJm3

[Bernard Aw @AwBernard]

#Coface latest 2021 Country and Sector #Risk Handbook includes #country and business climate assessments for 162 countries, as well as #sector risk, and assessment of companies’ #default rate. https://t.co/KdTMYQYBWY

[Bernard Aw @AwBernard]

This unique world map provides a visual way to understand Coface's thinking about risk assessment globally. It is now available for download: https://t.co/pnBJcuBUq5

[Coface Group @coface]

And don't forget to check out our just-released Country & Sector Risk Barometer for the 4th quarter of 2020, that goes into more detail about the uneven recovery we expect in 2021! https://t.co/NLtWDWww2S

[Bernard Aw @AwBernard]

#EmergingAsia GDP is expected at 6.7% in 2021 but the recovery will be uneven across the region.

[Coface Group @coface]

#EmergingAsia: Coface forecasts a 6.7% GDP growth rate for the region in 2021 - @AwBernard @JulienMarcilly #CofaceCRC

[Coface Group @coface]

#Asia: "We expect a multi-speed recovery across the continent - certain economies (like #China) will do better than others, whereas some, like #Japan, may still struggle in terms of pandemic recovery" - @AwBernard #CofaceCRC