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The analysis by Rashid Abdi is not only misleading but follows a familiar pattern. Time and again, his assessments on Puntland and the broader Somali political landscape have proven inaccurate and detached from realities on the ground and this latest claim is no exception.
#BREAKING
Analysis: Mogadishu moves to oust Puntland leader Deni
Somali federal troops backed by heavily-armed technicals, APCs and assorted clan militias are heading towards Puntland in an apparent bid to overthrow the elected regional President Sa'id A. Deni.
Buoyed by the success in ousting President Abdiaziz Laftagareen of South West State, Somali President Hassan Sheikh is turning his sights on Puntland and Jubaland.
Already, HSM has mobilised Deni's opponents, created an interim 'government-in-exile' based in Mogadishu that is coordinating political action, and the planned military takeover of Puntland to remove Deni.
The strategy to oust Deni has been in the works for sometime now and is closely being coordinated with Turkey which is providing intelligence, equipment and logistical support to the operation (just as happened in South West State).
Turkish Ambassador to Somalia met Deni recently and tried to pressure him to make a deal with HSM.
Turkey sees Puntland as a big prize owing to its strategic position, vast coastline, relative peace, blue economy resource potential. The Puntland coast is rich in tuna and possibly significant hydrocarbon reserves.
The port of Bosaso is also a key infrastructure/asset coveted by the Turks. The port is leased to the UAE's DP World.
Gaining a foothold in Puntland locks out the Emiratis and moves Ankara closer to another equally prized target - Somaliland.
Turkey is planning to establish a naval military outpost in Laas Qorey.
The recognition by Israel of Somaliland has galvanised Turkey into fast-tracking its plan to help HSM seize the Puntland and oust Deni.
Turkey's preference for a centralised Somalia is clear. Dismantling the federal system is now a top agenda.
In HSM, Ankara finds a believer and a willing executioner.
From a counter-terrorism and counterinsurgency perspective, the prospect of a new conflict and turmoil in Puntland could prove disastrous - wiping out all the gains made recently by Puntland against jihadist groups.
A blue-on-blue violence is precisely what Daesh/ISIS and Al-Shabaab need to regroup.
Alarmist and speculative claims about military takeovers or foreign agendas serve only to inflame tensions and create openings for groups like Al-Shabaab and Islamic State in Somalia to exploit instability.
Somalia at a Crossroads - Puntland, Unhealed Wounds and the Collapse of the Federal Promise
By @awosman
"More than three decades after the collapse of the Somali state in 1991, Somalia remains without a single, trusted national authority. What followed the collapse was not fragmentation by choice, but fragmentation by necessity. In the absence of security, justice, and functioning institutions, communities and regions were forced to organize themselves simply to survive. This reality continues to shape Somalia’s politics today, yet it is consistently overlooked by those who govern from Mogadishu."
Continue reading: See attached
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud celebrates local elections while the nation’s unity unravels, risking a legacy as the last president of a united Somalia. What a shameful legacy.
Coercing vulnerable citizens in Mogadishu to vote for political associations they do not know undermines democratic principles. Fake elections produce fake legitimacy, and the public cannot be deceived indefinitely.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s claim of presiding over Somalia’s first election since 1969 is inaccurate, as both Somaliland and Puntland have conducted elections for years.
A wannabe dictator congratulating another, birds of the same feather. President Samia Suluhu has consolidated power through a disputed election marked by repression and the silencing of opposition, a scenario that mirrors what President Hassan Sheikh aspires to.
Ambassador Riley and @USSOCAF Commander Major General Claude Tudor met with President Deni to express appreciation for Puntland's steadfast efforts in combating ISIS and ensuring maritime security. While the United States provides unique capabilities in support, local forces are the tip of the spear, taking the fight to the enemy who threatens not only Somalia, but the region, and our homeland. This is the kind of coordinated approach that helps protect American interests at home and abroad.
Thank you for your comment. You are absolutely right in noting that Somalia has faced significant challenges in achieving genuine and lasting reconciliation. The path toward unity and peace is complex, while there have been efforts to rebuild and restore stability.@SwedAmbSomalia
⚡️BREAKING: The European Union seeks "a peace conference and reconciliation process" to address political tensions turned into armed conflict between #Somalia government and @JSStatehouse.
In an exclusive interview with @ArlaadiMnetwork, @SwedAmbSomalia expressed concern over deadly confrontation between forces loyal to both sides, calling for urgent de-escalation and dialogue.
PUNTLAND DELEGATION MEETS SENIOR U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIALLS IN WASHINGTON DC
A Puntland delegation led by Minister Juxa and State Minister Farah aw-Osman in Washington DC have reported "to had important meetings with senior officials at the US State Department led by Assistant Deputy Secretary of State."
Radio Daljir has learned that this is part of President @HESaidADeni's plan to "engage with and strengthen Puntland relations with the rest of the world," and this is a part of a two leg trip, where the first leg is the US and Canada. President Deni was supposed to be on this trip, but because of "important work in Puntland, he stayed behind," with Minister Juxa and State Minister aw-Osman taking responsibility for the North America assignment.
The second leg of "Strengthening Puntland" is VP @HELugatoor's tour of Europe.
In today's discussions with the US State Department in DC, Daljir has learned that discussions included Puntland role in the rebuilding of the Somali state and the current obstacles to state building presented by President @HassanSMohamud, who refused every attempt to resolve the impasse between the Federal Government and Puntland, and has twice turned down attempts at reconciliation by former presidents Farmaajo @M_Farmaajo and Sharif Sheikh Ahmed @HESharifShAhmed. The delegation made it clear to the US that this isn't a political feud between the two presidents but fundamental differences about the future of Somalia and about abiding the Federal Constitution and not creating a new constitution from scratch. The delegation also emphasized that while Puntland is ready for consensus, President Hassan Sheikh hasn't shown any interest of creating a national cohesion.
Other discussions included mapping the security and stability of Puntland and Somalia in general, the war against al-Shabaab and ISIS, the Puntland democratization process, USAID and Puntland, and private investment in Puntland State of Somalia.
> Daljir Media