...1W Timeframe — I have to show you this to keep your spirits high.
...The 18 SMA retest:
• Look at the weekly structure: despite the brutal intraday noise and local panic, price is coming down to test the rising 18 SMA.
• Historically, within a macro bull market, a clean retest and defense of the 18 SMA serves as the primary trend-continuation engine, shaking out weak hands before the next major expansion leg.
• As long as weekly closes respect this dynamic base, the macro uptrend remains fully intact.
Zoom out, filter the noise, and respect the higher-timeframe moving average.
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Unfortunately, Bitcoin ($BTC) has lost its last bullish line of defense in my view. What’s happening right now looks very bad. Price has entered a bounce zone where any relief rallies will act as a bull trap.
Starting today, I'm flipping bearish.
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…Great wave count from @Freedom_By_40 — very clean and logical structure.
According to my Fib Diff strategy, the technical completion of this August impulse sits around ~$93k. After reaching that zone, we typically see an aggressive pullback to retest a key support area — in this case, I expect ~$82k.
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$BTC
All is well when you zoom out.
I am expecting to find support around the .5fib, could get lucky and get away with the .382.
Consider following along, I keep things as realistic as I can over here.
@QuantMIntel …I completely agree with you. I actually love the 3D timeframe myself, but this is a specific situation. In this particular case, even the 4H will be enough ))) — and a 1D confirmation will be a 100% signal.
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…Statistics are stubborn. Price typically reaches the 0.5 level — and if it holds and consolidates above it, the trend reverses. Watch closely: if the 1D candle closes above, we're heading up to fill the impulse move to $93k.
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…The main correction is complete — that's the daily (1D) 0.618 level. The 0.5 level marks the midpoint between 0.618 and 0.786, which is where I placed my stop-loss. We'll find out soon enough.
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