Azriel Bermant

Author: 'Margaret Thatcher & the Middle East' @CambridgeUP; @IIR_Prague ; @RoyalHistSoc; New book project on UK-US Middle East policy & friction.

[Azriel Bermant @azrielb]

Netanyahu's circle and his media mouthpieces are in a state of shock and disbelief over the emerging US-Iran deal and the Trump administration's growing fury over his policies. The president today at the G7 summit didn't hold back, asserting that the Israeli prime minister needs to be "more responsible with respect to Lebanon."

Yet the U.S. president risks nothing in confronting the Israeli prime minister at a time when American public opinion is turning against Israel. On the contrary, Netanyahu is a convenient scapegoat. Yet Bibi risks everything if there is a major falling out with the Trump administration. His relationship with Trump has been a cornerstone of his electoral appeal. Defying the Americans will play well to his hard-right base but it will alienate the wider Israeli electorate that is tiring of endless war.

My full analysis below: 👇

[Azriel Bermant @azrielb]

Read my full analysis here:
https://t.co/JGcGyzdRBT

[Azriel Bermant @azrielb]

The degradation of Russia’s conventional threat is an acute challenge for Moscow. The one thing Putin cannot stomach is being exposed as a paper tiger.

Former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz may have been a deeply uncharismatic leader, yet he showed genuine vision and foresight in promoting the European Sky Shield and purchasing Israel's Arrow 3 missile defence system. He recognized that the risk of triggering a new arms race was less dangerous than remaining entirely vulnerable to Russian blackmail.

My weekend post below: 👇

[Azriel Bermant @azrielb]

Has Trump really thrown Israel under the bus? In reality, pressuring Jerusalem to find a diplomatic exit strategy isn’t ‘selling Israel out.’ It is surely a good thing that the United States is exerting pressure to end a war in Lebanon which is serving no further strategic purpose. Instead, we have the disgrace of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir calling for the IDF to slaughter a thousand Lebanese for every fallen Israeli soldier: a surefire recipe to strengthen local support for Hezbollah. And Benjamin Netanyahu wonders why Israel’s global reputation is currently in tatters.

What is genuinely disturbing here, however, is that the Americans are pressuring Israel to end the war in Lebanon in direct response to Iranian demands. Israel has been completely excluded from the new deconfliction mechanism, while what little detail has emerged regarding future constraints on Tehran’s nuclear programme remains ridiculously vague. You do not have to be a paid-up member of Netanyahu’s echo chamber to be alarmed by the Trump administration’s direction of travel. Even the courageous Iranian opposition, whom Trump explicitly promised to “rescue,” now see their oppressors offered a financial lifeline along with explicit promises of non-intervention.

My full analysis below: 👇

[Azriel Bermant @azrielb]

You can read the full article here:
https://t.co/lPJtRPQygP

[Azriel Bermant @azrielb]

Has Trump really thrown Israel under the bus? In reality, pressuring Jerusalem to find a diplomatic exit strategy isn’t ‘selling Israel out.’ It is surely a good thing that the United States is exerting pressure to end a war in Lebanon which is serving no further strategic purpose. Instead, we have the disgrace of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir calling for the IDF to slaughter a thousand Lebanese for every fallen Israeli soldier: a surefire recipe to strengthen local support for Hezbollah. And Benjamin Netanyahu wonders why Israel’s global reputation is currently in tatters.

What is genuinely disturbing here, however, is that the Americans are pressuring Israel to end the war in Lebanon in direct response to Iranian demands. Israel has been completely excluded from the new deconfliction mechanism, while what little detail has emerged regarding future constraints on Tehran’s nuclear programme remains ridiculously vague. You do not have to be a paid-up member of Netanyahu’s echo chamber to be alarmed by the Trump administration’s direction of travel. Even the courageous Iranian opposition, whom Trump explicitly promised to “rescue,” now see their oppressors offered a financial lifeline along with explicit promises of non-intervention.

My full analysis below: 👇

[Azriel Bermant @azrielb]

It defies belief to expect the Trump administration to treat Israel any differently than other U.S. allies. Donald Trump has never hidden his admiration for tyrants and autocrats the world over. Is it possible that the Islamic Republic of Iran has now won the respect of the U.S. president because of its resilience, defiance, and increasingly belligerent behavior? Russia’s president Vladimir Putin is openly admired in Trumpian circles. The U.S. president once threatened the North Korean dictator with “fire and fury,” but it was not long before he was showering him with love letters.

There is an undeniable pattern here. Dictators are showered with affection and allies are treated with disdain. Just look at the scorn Britain’s Keir Starmer had to deal with hours before his dramatic resignation as prime minister, or the treatment of Italy's Giorgia Meloni.

My latest free-to-read post is here: 👇

[Azriel Bermant @azrielb]

The full analysis is here:
https://t.co/lPJtRPQygP

[Azriel Bermant @azrielb]

It defies belief to expect the Trump administration to treat Israel any differently than other U.S. allies. Donald Trump has never hidden his admiration for tyrants and autocrats the world over. Is it possible that the Islamic Republic of Iran has now won the respect of the U.S. president because of its resilience, defiance, and increasingly belligerent behavior? Russia’s president Vladimir Putin is openly admired in Trumpian circles. The U.S. president once threatened the North Korean dictator with “fire and fury,” but it was not long before he was showering him with love letters.

There is an undeniable pattern here. Dictators are showered with affection and allies are treated with disdain. Just look at the scorn Britain’s Keir Starmer had to deal with hours before his dramatic resignation as prime minister, or the treatment of Italy's Giorgia Meloni.

My latest free-to-read post is here: 👇

[Luke Akehurst @lukeakehurst]

History will probably be kinder to Keir Starmer than the opinion polls have been. He achieved what many said was impossible by taking Labour from a broken party, morally compromised by antisemitism and extremism, at the end of the Corbyn era, to a landslide win. The important thing now is the unity of the party as we attempt to recover lost supporters by delivering on the issues that voters care about: the cost of living, controlling immigration, improving public services, reindustrialising our left behind regions, and rearming to defend the UK in an era of dangerous military threats.

[Azriel Bermant @azrielb]

"They’re always up for the fight to save their own skin, said Sir Keir Starmer in 2023 of Tory MPs. So it is in Labour in 2026."
https://t.co/nWNNFTpRU8

[Emmanuel Macron @EmmanuelMacron]

Je tiens à remercier le Premier ministre @Keir_Starmer pour sa contribution au renforcement de la relation franco-britannique, son engagement au sein de la coalition des volontaires pour l’Ukraine, ainsi qu’à la relance de la relation entre le Royaume-Uni et l’Union européenne.

Le travail accompli ensemble pour la défense, l’énergie nucléaire, l’espace et l’innovation, en particulier lors de notre sommet franco-britannique de juillet dernier, témoigne de cet engagement.

Nous poursuivrons sur cette voie au bénéfice de nos peuples et de l’Europe.

[Azriel Bermant @azrielb]

There is an undeniable pattern with Donald Trump: dictators are shown great respect and even admiration, while democratic allies are treated with disdain. Over the last 48 hours, we watched him publicly humiliate Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Britain’s Keir Starmer, who has since resigned, while his administration actively caves in to the dictatorship in Tehran to secure a flawed deal that completely excludes Israel. From Tokyo to Seoul, allies are alarmed by a leader who treats mutual defence treaties like protection rackets, while Taiwan is left hanging after Trump openly questioned the future of U.S. arms sales.

In short, Donald Trump has shown nothing but scorn for the post-World War Two alliance system; he is a transactional operator who places no intrinsic value on allies. Benjamin Netanyahu made himself useful to the president until he was useful no longer, and there was never any strategic reason why Israel would be treated differently. Israelis like to think of themselves as the smartest, most clear-eyed realists in the room. Yet when it came to Washington, they either weren’t paying attention, or they engaged in a monumental act of self-deception.

Read the full piece here:👇

[Azriel Bermant @azrielb]

You can read the full analysis here:
https://t.co/lPJtRPQygP

[Azriel Bermant @azrielb]

There is an undeniable pattern with Donald Trump: dictators are shown great respect and even admiration, while democratic allies are treated with disdain. Over the last 48 hours, we watched him publicly humiliate Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Britain’s Keir Starmer, who has since resigned, while his administration actively caves in to the dictatorship in Tehran to secure a flawed deal that completely excludes Israel. From Tokyo to Seoul, allies are alarmed by a leader who treats mutual defence treaties like protection rackets, while Taiwan is left hanging after Trump openly questioned the future of U.S. arms sales.

In short, Donald Trump has shown nothing but scorn for the post-World War Two alliance system; he is a transactional operator who places no intrinsic value on allies. Benjamin Netanyahu made himself useful to the president until he was useful no longer, and there was never any strategic reason why Israel would be treated differently. Israelis like to think of themselves as the smartest, most clear-eyed realists in the room. Yet when it came to Washington, they either weren’t paying attention, or they engaged in a monumental act of self-deception.

Read the full piece here:👇

[Azriel Bermant @azrielb]

Yes. Menachem Begin was a manipulative leader and extreme in his ideology. And yet he signed a peace treaty with Egypt which resulted in the evacuation of Jewish settlements in Sinai , he would not countenance dismantling Israel’s democratic institutions, he agreed to a state commission of inquiry after Sabra and Shatila and resigned his post a year after the invasion of Lebanon. We would be in dreamland if Bibi had acted in a similar manner.

[John Lyndon @JohnLyndon_]

Thoroughly decent statement from thoroughly decent man.
I will never get the vitriol, bile & record low approval that this (flawed, disappointing, but earnest) PM elicited from the British people. I wish his successor greater success. And UK voters a greater sense of perspective

[Azriel Bermant @azrielb]

@piersmorgan In the meantime, a minister in Netanyahu’s government who was appointed by the prime minister declares openly that 1000 Lebanese must be killed for every IDF soldier that is killed. And Bibi wonders why Israel’s global reputation is in tatters.

[Paddy @PaddyArsenal]

I notice Arsenal are the only team who don’t have to play against the champions next season