GARP Investor

No Recommendations !
Fertilizer in some years so ...Enjoy!

[GARP Investor @b4shekar]

Unprecedented volatility in US market , PF swinging +10k to -10k within days

[GARP Investor @b4shekar]

BioTech , Pharma BOOM about to start , position yourself well $ARKG

[GARP Investor @b4shekar]

#Izmo maza aya concall mai, this is kind of concall we wait for.

[GARP Investor @b4shekar]

@AimInvestments As per market Anti AI is Software, select indian IT run started but overall we don't have much innovation to offer in AI or Anti AI

[GARP Investor @b4shekar]

Concord Biotech #CONCORDBIO remains a high-quality fermentation API franchise experiencing a temporary earnings setback; the key upside lies in FY27 demand normalization, injectable ramp-up, new product launches, and CDMO scaling, while the main risks are geopolitical disruptions, execution in new businesses, and slower-than-expected conversion of growth initiatives.

POOR #Q4FY26 RESULT

[GARP Investor @b4shekar]

JM Financial (#JMFINANCIL) is evolving from a credit-heavy NBFC into a diversified financial-services platform; the biggest upside comes from a recovery in capital markets and improved profitability in wealth management, while the biggest risk remains prolonged weakness in IPO and equity issuance activity.
POOR #Q4FY26 RESULT

[GARP Investor @b4shekar]

Jupiter Wagons #JWL is transforming from a wagon manufacturer into a diversified rail-and-energy infrastructure company; the key upside comes from new railway orders, wheel-set manufacturing, and BESS growth, while the biggest risks are execution delays and dependence on railway tender activity.
POOR #Q4FY26 RESULT

[GARP Investor @b4shekar]

Triveni Turbine Ltd (#TRITURBINE) today is gradually transforming from a cyclical sugar company into a combination of a sugar-ethanol platform plus a high-margin export-oriented industrial gearbox and defense company, with the PTB demerger acting as the key value-unlocking catalyst over the next 12–24 months. Execution risk persist
POOR #Q4FY26 RESULT

[GARP Investor @b4shekar]

Industry : Tea/Coffee
Vintage Coffee & Beverages Ltd #VINCOFE #TRACKING #Q4FY26

Vintage Coffee is primarily a B2B instant coffee manufacturer and exporter transitioning from a high-growth exporter of spray/agglomerated coffee into a premium freeze-dried coffee manufacturer, with the next 2–3 years dependent on successful capacity utilization and execution of the ₹550 Cr freeze-dried expansion project.

Products
- Spray-dried coffee
- Agglomerated coffee (premium instant coffee)
- Consumer-pack coffee
- Upcoming freeze-dried coffee (highest-value segment)

Revenue Drivers
- Export-focused business (~95% of production exported)
- Cost-plus pricing model (raw material fluctuations largely passed through)
- Growing share of higher-margin consumer packs and premium coffee products

Geographic Mix
- Africa: 31%
- CIS/Russia: 22%
- Southeast Asia: 22%
- Americas & Europe: 18%
- India: 5%

Customer Base
- 19–20 global customers
- Top 5–6 customers contribute ~45–50% of revenue

Key Summary

1. Capacity Expansion

- Capacity Status Existing Spray + Agglomerated : Expanded from 6,500 MT to 11,000 MT
- Utilization FY27 Guidance : ~95%
- Freeze-Dried Coffee Phase 1 : 5,500 MT
- Expected Start : Q2 FY28 (commercial Operations from Jul-27)
- Capex : ₹550 Cr

Funding
- ₹150 Cr already spent
- Remaining through:
- ECB debt (~₹300 Cr at 5–6%)
- Working capital debt (~₹100 Cr at 8.3–8.4%)

2. Growth Triggers
1. Near-Full Capacity Utilization
- 95% utilization of 11,000 MT capacity in FY27
- Visibility for orders already exists
- Q2 onward expected to operate at full capacity

2. Freeze-Dried Coffee Entry: biggest growth catalyst.
- Benefits
- Higher realization
- Higher EBITDA margins
- Premium product positioning
- New customer opportunities

3. Better Product Mix
- Shift toward:
- Agglomerated coffee
- Consumer packs
- Target mix:
- 60% packed products
- 40% bulk products
- Expected realization improvement: ~2–3% annually

4. Global Instant Coffee Demand Growth
- Global instant coffee market ~1 million MT
- Annual growth ~30,000 MT
The company's current scale remains very small relative to industry demand, leaving room for expansion.

5. Operating Leverage
- 11,000 MT capacity already installed
- Strong utilization expected
Fixed costs get spread over higher volumes, supporting margin expansion.

6. Margin Outlook
- FY27 : ~19%
- FY28 : 20–21%
- FY29 : 22–24%

3. Key Risks
1. Execution Risk on Freeze-Dried Project
The investment is large: ₹550 Cr capex Nearly equal to FY26 revenue. Any Delay, Cost overrun , Slower ramp-up could impact returns.

2. Customer Concentration : Top 5–6 customers account for ~50% of revenue.Loss of a major customer could materially impact growth.

3. Export Dependence : About 95% of production is exported.
Risks include:
- Currency volatility
- Trade restrictions
- Import duties
-Demand slowdown in key export markets

4. Debt Increase
- Expected peak debt:
₹400 Cr additional debt
Although financing cost appears attractive, leverage rises substantially over FY27–FY28.

5. Commodity Price Risk
Management says they operate largely on a cost-plus model.
However:
- Sudden coffee price movements
- Inventory mismatches
- Working capital spikes
can still affect cash flows.

6. Management Guidance Risk
The growth plan assumes:
- 95% utilization of 11,000 MT capacity
- 70% utilization of freeze-dried plant in its first year

These are ambitious targets and need execution

[GARP Investor @b4shekar]

BUY VIX 30
BUY MORE VIX 45
SELL VIX 14
REPEAT

[GARP Investor @b4shekar]

BUY LOW TRIM HIGH

[GARP Investor @b4shekar]

BUY HIGH GROWTH WITH EARNING SURPRISE AT PULL BACK TO 21 EMA
TRIM ON 50% EXTENSION ABOVE 100 EMA

[GARP Investor @b4shekar]

https://t.co/P7UkS1LXnH
This is playing out

[GARP Investor @b4shekar]

This is going to explode next , study and just get on board guys unlike data centers , entire AI value chain , defense, or even space , this domain is fresh about to breakout , huge multi decade potential. $ILMN $TWST $VEEV

[GARP Investor @b4shekar]

@jrouldz Thank you for info!