Cognitive Contortionist

On-Chain Trench Dweller / Market Participant / Speculative Gambler

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

CPI 0.5% MoM, Exp. 0.5%
CPI Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.3%

CPI 4.2% YoY, Exp. 4.2%
CPI Core 2.9% YoY, Exp.2.9%

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

CoreWeave Founders Have Dumped $2.3 Billion in Stock Since IPO: BBG

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Chinese nuclear reactors under construction

[The Market Ear @themarketear]

FactSet has the 12m forward P/E of S&P500 to be at 21x. Not cheap. Above the 5-year average. But not at the extreme highs we have seen in the not-so distant past.
https://t.co/p3XeTuXbf1

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*QUANTINUUM IPO IS SAID TO BE MORE THAN 20 TIMES OVERSUBSCRIBED

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*BESSENT: ANNUAL FRAUD IN THE BUDGET ESTIMATED AT AT LEAST $500B

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*BROADCOM: WORK WITH APOLLO, BLACKSTONE SERVES OPENAI, ANTHROPIC

Translation: Broadcom is backstopping a massive $36 billion private credit SPV with Apollo and Blackstone which will help Anthropic buy Google chips... made by Broadcom.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Brazil debt shrank under Bolsonaro, exploded under socialist Lula

[Citrini @citrini]

I really have to get better at buying whatever the President of the United States says to buy.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

US consumers almost out of savings: in the last 2 months, personal savings rate collapsed by 1% to 2.6%, just shy of all time low

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

60 minutes left: brace for a barrage of completely made up Iran headlines

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

everyone rushing to go public before momentum pops

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

US TO GRANT $2B TO 9 QUANTUM COMPUTING FIRMS, TAKE STAKES: WSJ

Among companies receiving funds:

IBM: $1BN
GFS: $375MM
QBTS: $100MM
RGTI: $100MM
INFQ: $100MM

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

You know what soaring Treasury yields will really help with? The $1.3 trillion in annual US interest expense.

For context, the largest US government outlay is Social Security. It is $1.6 trillion.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Jeff Bezos: "If we ran Amazon the way New York City runs their school system, the packages would take 6 weeks to arrive, we would charge you a $100 delivery fee and when the package did finally arrive, it would have the wrong item in it anyway."

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Hyperscaler Free Cash Flow going negative for at least the next two years

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

TSMC, Samsung Electronics, and Alibaba account for 105% of all YTD Emerging Market stock gains

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Nvidia now has a larger market value than the entire healthcare sector of the S&P500.

[Citrini @citrini]

People keep confusing a bubble with “stocks go up and get overvalued”. A bubble is when when a prevailing trend and a prevailing misconception about that trend interact reflexively, each reinforcing the other until the gap between perception and reality becomes unsustainable.

A bubble is not when everyone realizes that right now every iota of AI demand eventually, at some point upstream, must move through memory OEMs. Nor is it when estimates continue rising because things are better than expected. And it’s not just when stocks trade expensive to historical valuations.

The reason behind the moves in the AI infrastructure layer so far have been simply that we don’t have enough. They’ve been driven by the fundamental reality more than the perception of the future. It’s why the bulk of the most bullish parts of this cycle have been lumpy and centered around earnings season when companies uniformly come out and confirm there’s still not enough. In the bubble, the reality is driven by the market - not the other way around.

Everyone keeps saying “people are gonna freak out if it’s not a bubble!”. I think that’s silly, we have a transformative new technology that needs crazy capital to fuel it coming to fruition, that has and always will result in a bubble as long as we have financial markets.

But if you want to call the top in a bubble, you need a much stronger view on what the misconception is and what negative catalyst forces broad perception to align with realizing it than you do on valuation.

[Stephen Moore @StephenMoore]

The biggest wealth transfer in American history isn’t happening on Wall Street. It’s happening on U-Hauls.

Over $2 trillion in income fled high-tax blue states for low-tax red states in just 11 years.

And blue states’ solution? Raise taxes again.