murat leo babur

Founder of DevBiz Inc | AI Engineering | Algo Systems | 15+ yrs Software & Architecture

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

Fed holds rates at 3.5 to 3.75
Economy steady but inflation still elevated
Uncertainty rising with global risks

This is neutral to slightly hawkish

Stocks short term relief but capped upside
Crypto liquidity stays tight no easy breakout
Dollar remains firm

Market wants cuts
Fed is not ready

Bias cautious not bullish

#FOMC #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #Macro #StockMarket #Crypto #Bitcoin #Liquidity #Markets #Trading #Investing #Economy

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

People keep saying, “Bitcoin dropped 50% because of Trump.”

That’s too shallow.

But pretending this administration didn’t inject volatility into the system? That is delusion.

Early 2025 was pure euphoria.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
“Never sell your Bitcoin.”
Bitcoin conference speeches.
The market believed we were about to get a pro-Bitcoin treasury shift.

So it front-ran it.
Hard.
$120K hard.

Then reality walked in.

Supreme Court limits tariff authority.
Administration pivots and escalates anyway.
Trade war headlines everywhere.
Inflation pressure is building.
Fed goes higher-for-longer.
Dollar rips.

You cannot be the “Crypto President” and the “Tariff President” at the same time without consequences.

Bitcoin trades liquidity.
Liquidity tightened.

Add in the optics of Trump-branded tokens, lawsuits, retail losses, political backlash… and the vibe changed fast.

The Strategic Reserve exists. Yes.
But it’s retained seized BTC.
Not an aggressive buying program.

That difference matters.

So what really happened?

The market bought the dream.
Then it priced the friction.

This wasn’t “Bitcoin failed.”
It was leverage unwinding in a world where expectations outran delivery.

From $120K euphoria to $60K reset.

Not ideology.
Not hate.
Just risk premium expanding when policy gets loud.

Markets don’t care about slogans.

They care about liquidity.
#Bitcoin #Macro #Liquidity #Fed #RiskPremium #Trump

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

@MrWhale Stagflation requires persistent inflation + sustained contraction.
Watch:
• Dollar
• 10Y yields
• Credit spreads

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

@LarkDavis Bond market reaction will tell the real story.

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

@cryptorover If growth weakens faster than inflation rises, liquidity shifts fast.

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

@CoinMarketCap That is constructive.

Distribution away from concentrated whales → broader base of conviction holders.

Less reflexive dumping.
More structural support.
When a large supply fragments without price collapsing, that’s absorption, not weakness.

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

@coinbureau Psychology drives the short term.
Structure drives the cycle.
If selling pressure is exhaustion, you’ll see it in OI, funding, and spot absorption.

We’re already seeing parts of that reset.

The next move won’t come from headlines.
It’ll come from liquidity shifting.

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

@SolLunix Fastest to $1T and still the most debated.

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

@benjamincowen @GibCryptoNews Bottoms aren’t found by prediction.
They’re found by positioning.
When leverage resets, OI compresses, and sentiment flips defensive, that is when probability shifts.

Price can go lower.
But structure is already changing.

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

@JamesEastonUK Nature is resetting volatility.

When OI nukes, and price does not collapse with it, that’s constructive.

Leverage leaves.
Spot remains.
That’s how bases form.

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

@Cointelegraph Time is Bitcoin’s ally.

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

@cryptorover Below 65K opens downside acceleration.
Above 68–70K flips dealer positioning.
This range is a coil.

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

@Darky1k “Dumping hard” in a 3–4% move inside a compression range?
This is positioning unwind, not structural breakdown.
Funding flat.
OI resetting.
That is cleansing, not collapse.

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

@PeterSchiff Gold protects wealth.
Bitcoin compounds it.
One is static scarcity. The other is programmable scarcity + global settlement.

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

Walls only matter if buyers are exhausted.

In past bears we had vertical blow-offs and 50% funding spikes.
This time we have muted leverage and compressed OI.
140 days into “bear” but without a classic euphoric top.

If 68K stays resistance, fine.
If it flips, this whole 200W narrative fades fast.

Levels are technical.
Regimes are structural.
I’m watching regime.

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

Same price. Different cycle psychology.
2021 was expansion.
Liquidity accelerating.
Leverage euphoric.
2026 is digestion.
Funding muted.
Skepticism everywhere.
When price is the same, but positioning is lighter, that’s not the weakness. That is reset.
Cycles don’t die from boredom. They reset from excess.

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

@Nebraskangooner This is compression. Low funding. Negative basis. Tight range. Markets are boring right before they get expensive.

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

@DonWedge Alts outperform when BTC stabilizes

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

@KillaXBT If dominance stalls, BTC breathes. If dominance expands, BTC compresses. It’s whether liquidity expands or contracts from here.

[murat leo babur @baburizmo]

@Bitcoin When BTC is priced in hard assets instead of fiat, it highlights something important:
Gold and silver preserve purchasing power.
Bitcoin compresses time.