BABUSHKA!

WHAT A WASTE

[BABUSHKA! @BabushkaFF]

@MountaineerSpo2 I’m glad you appreciate it! The best part is, if you’re lucky—you can still pick one up for about the same price as a brand new Topps Chrome Blaster! 😆

[BABUSHKA! @BabushkaFF]

@PatrickHarmonn Luis Arana price?

[BABUSHKA! @BabushkaFF]

@CardPurchaser I pulled this after picking up a box from a link that you shared! 🔥

[BABUSHKA! @BabushkaFF]

@surgieboi Hi! I was wondering if you’re currently accepting new clients for card prep and restoration. Thank you!

[BABUSHKA! @BabushkaFF]

@OffDaHook35 @BreakerCulture 250 @WaxMetrix 🎯

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

2025 Topps Chrome Update – Analysis & Print Runs

Here we go. The long-awaited Chrome Update odds have finally dropped… and they are a doozy. This one’s lengthy because there’s a lot to unpack.

I sense some obfuscation here. Whether it’s intentional or accidental, I honestly can’t say. But several aspects of this odds sheet simply don’t extrapolate the way they usually do. Normally, I’m comfortable saying my print and production estimates land within a 5–7% margin of error. With this release, I only feel confident within about 19% aggregate, and the biggest reason starts here:

I firmly believe the entire Mega Box odds column is wrong.

If you look closely, the odds for Mega Boxes and Fanatics Megas are identical, with only two exceptions:

1) Fanatics Megas swap ToppsFractors for X-Fractors

2) A two-pack difference in Negative Refractors (183 vs 181)

That’s it. Every other stated odd matches perfectly, all the way down to Fanatics Authentic Redemptions. When have Fanatics Authentic Redemptions ever appeared in regular Megas? Never. And I highly doubt they do here either.

Equally suspect, we’ve never seen regular Megas and Fanatics Megas share identical odds. Fanatics Megas are always meaningfully better. And if you run the math using Topps’ stated odds, production for both Mega formats would also be identical, which also never happens. Historically, regular Megas are produced at roughly 6x–10x+ the rate of Fanatics Megas.

This looks like a classic copypasta fiasco, leaving us with a duplicate column of bad data for regular Megas.

One more important note. Topps commonly withholds product for damage replacements, substitutions, and whatever other mystery purposes they deem necessary. For most items this is under 10%, usually closer to 5%. Auto parallels are often withheld at higher rates, which isn’t inherently bad.

What is alarming is what the math suggests here:
• ~60% of Legend Autos withheld
• ~40–50% of Chrome Update Auto Parallels withheld
While there have been past cases where checklist items never made it into packs at all (ex: Legendary Home Field Advantages in 2025 Series 1), this looks intentional. Even after these withholdings, the stated auto guarantees still reconcile (1 auto/hobby, 2 Breaker’s, 3 Jumbo). Don’t be surprised if certain autos, especially Legends, seem scarcer than their serial numbers suggest.
As if that weren’t enough, Topps also gave us two separate MLB Debut Patch odds entries, and they are wildly different. Although they each reconcile nicely in totality, I ruled out the first entry entirely since it shows unusually heavy Value Box insertion and extremely sparse Breaker’s rates. The second entry aligns much better with observed pull rates, so that’s the one I used.

Total Production

2025:
• Hobby: 97,356 boxes (8,113 cases) | 2024: 94,875
• Jumbo: 36,840 boxes (4,605 cases) | 2024: 33,583
• Breaker’s: 40,892 boxes (6,815 cases) | 2024: 40,051
• Value Boxes: 876,340 boxes (21,909 cases)
• Fanatics Megas: 30,010 boxes (1,501 cases)

Regular Megas omitted from value analysis due to suspect odds. If you disagree, Fanatics Mega odds can be used since Topps claims they’re identical.

Total Cards in Product
2025: 40,200,424
This is likely closer to 46mil if regular Mega odds were understated. This conservative calculation at least gives us some context to see the bigger picture.

2024: 23,824,412
YOY: +68.7%

This is what reintroducing a whole extra retail SKU lets you do. It absolutely blows the top off production.

Hit Frequencies
• Hobby: 1 auto, 11.74 parallels, 12.05 inserts, 1.85 #’d cards
• Jumbo: 3 autos, 20.41 parallels, 12.57 inserts, 2.59 #’d cards
• Breaker’s: 2 autos, 8.43 parallels, 1.38 inserts, 2.5 #’d cards
• Value: 1 auto per 13.48 boxes, 5.73 parallels, 1.97 inserts, 4.2 boxes per #’d card
• Fanatics Mega: 1 auto per 13.93 boxes, 12.02 parallels, 3.77 inserts, 1.85 boxes per #’d card

Value Landscape
Pricing based on current secondary: $310 Hobby, $700 Jumbo, $635 Breaker’s, $40 Value, $80 Fanatics Mega.
I’ll keep this tidy. There isn’t much “value” at current pricing. Picking the best format feels like arguing over which tire is best after the car’s already on fire.

$ per Parallel
1) Fanatics Mega: $6.66
2) Value Box: $6.98

$ per #’d Card
1) Fanatics Mega: $148
2) Value Box: $168

$ per Auto
1) Jumbo: $233.33
2) Hobby: $310

• Best auto format: Jumbo (Across the entire product, 70% of autos are numbered.)
• Best for parallels/inserts: Hobby

Among retail, Fanatics Megas are better for parallels and inserts, but surprisingly trail Value Boxes by a wide margin for auto acquisition cost. Value Boxes also contain significantly more MLB Debut Patches. If you’re ripping retail, Value Boxes are the recommendation… just leave expectations at the door because they can be unruly.

MLB Debut Patch Autos
These are what everyone is after, so here's a ranking of the average cost to pull one from each format:
1) Breaker’s: $276,225
2) Jumbo: $379,400
3) Hobby: $443,920
4) Value: $989,120
5) Fanatics Mega: $1,200,800

Of the 270 produced, here's how many you can expect to find across each format:
• Breaker’s: 94 (34.8% of production)
• Hobby: 68 (25.2%)
• Jumbo: 68 (25.2%)
• Value: 36 (13.3%)
• Megas/Fanatics Megas: 2 each (0.7%)

Your odds of pulling an MLB Debut Patch from a random:
• Hobby: 0.07%
• Jumbo: 0.185%
• Breaker’s: 0.23%
• Value: 0.0041%
• Mega/Fanatics Mega: 0.0067%

Print Runs
Unnumbered Parallels
Refractor ~12,300
Prism ~3,800
Raywave ~6,200
X-Fractor ~6,300
ToppsFractor ~1,050
Geometric ~800
Sepia ~15,400
Negative ~330
Cupfractor ~180

Inserts
2025 ASG (50 card CL): ~27,000
1990 Chrome (21 card CL): ~38,500
1990 Geo: ~1,950
Fortune 15 (25 card CL): ~27,800
Power Players (20 card CL): ~27,300
Night Terrors (25 card CL): ~27,800
Radiating Rookies (20 card CL): ~280
CHFA (10 card CL): ~250
Helix (10 card CL): ~90
Major League Minis (10 card CL): ~240
Alter Ego Super Heroes (10 card CL): ~100
Celebracion (20 card CL): ~240
Image Variations (22 card CL): ~880
ASG Image Variations (11 card CL): ~900
Mickey & Friends (30 card CL): ~110

Autos
Chrome Update Base (126 card CL): ~600
B&W Mini Diamond: ~30
Chromeography (27 card CL): ~100
1990 Chrome Autos (27 card CL): ~200
Rookie Debut Autos (61 card CL): ~700
Rookie Debut B&W Mini Diamond: ~50

@CardPurchaser

#thehobby #2025ToppsChromeUpdate #SlabSquatchAnalytics

[BABUSHKA! @BabushkaFF]

@OffDaHook35 My recent pickup 🔥

[BABUSHKA! @BabushkaFF]

@AshtonEck8 No problem! Thank you for the offer, and good luck in the thread 🫶

[BABUSHKA! @BabushkaFF]

@AshtonEck8 I think $280 is fair 😅 I stickered it at 85% of what I believe the card is worth to leave some room for you. No worries at all if you can’t get there 👍

[BABUSHKA! @BabushkaFF]

@CardPurchaser I don’t think it was a good test on Retail at full price. It’ll likely be available during release week, so I’d rather wait than place a non-cancelable pre-order. Hobby doesn’t sit at Topps pre-order pricing the same way, making it worth locking in a “discounted” box early.

[BABUSHKA! @BabushkaFF]

@WaxMetrix @SCN_Pod DM sent 👍

[BABUSHKA! @BabushkaFF]

@WaxMetrix @SCN_Pod I think I was first?

[BABUSHKA! @BabushkaFF]

@WaxMetrix @SCN_Pod aka Sports Cards Nonsense Podcast, if a full answer is needed 👀

[BABUSHKA! @BabushkaFF]

@WaxMetrix @SCN_Pod 👍

[BABUSHKA! @BabushkaFF]

@MoneyTM1 $70 shipped Crobat?

[BABUSHKA! @BabushkaFF]

@OffDaHook35 So close! Leaf Neck Dino is from Neopets 🎯

[BABUSHKA! @BabushkaFF]

@WaxMetrix 15,181,430

[BABUSHKA! @BabushkaFF]

@CardPurchaser My LCS is actually competitive with this! You love to see it! 🤣