SlabSquatch Sports Cards

Sports card collector, numbers nerd, and wax ripper, in that order. I enjoy chopping it up about conspiracies and analyzing Topps odds sheets in my spare time.

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

@Whatup_wit_that Stops at 99. 🤣 God, I hope they didn't produce like 2 million blasters.

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

Y'all, I was REAAALLLY hoping to see some Platinum Chrome odds before the night was through.

But at this point, I've accepted it's just not gonna happen. I've never seen Topps release odds past 11pm.

I have an early morning tomorrow, then I’m leaving town in the afternoon through the rest of the weekend. There’s a chance odds drop tomorrow morning before release, but if that happens, I just don’t see any way I can get a full analysis done before Monday.

So, as much as I’d like to help you decide what to do with your card funds tomorrow, I can only be of limited help until I actually see some odds.

But here’s what we know:

We have three releases tomorrow:
2026 Topps Chrome Platinum
2025 Topps Signature Class Football
2026 Topps Chrome Sapphire UFC
Of the three, we have odds on precisely zero.

Good lookin’ out there, @Topps.

Let me start with Signature Class.

From all appearances, it should be very similar in box/set dynamics to Signature Class NBA. It is cheaper than the NBA version, so at least it has that going for it.

I had some thoughts, and a full analysis, on Signature NBA. You can see that here:
https://t.co/75TltDVRNG

Spoiler alert: I wasn’t very fond of the product. And that hasn’t changed just because I’ve seen it now. In fact, I’m a little surprised at how accurate I was, since that was written before release.

It’s probably safe to assume a large chunk of that analysis also applies to Signature NFL. So tread lightly.

Now Sapphire UFC.
I love a good Sapphire release. And $250/box is toward the low end of what you will ever see a Sapphire drop priced at.

I love that it’s limited, typically around 1,000 cases, except for more niche offerings like Bundesliga Sapphire, which are closer to 500 cases. I’m not quite sure which bucket this one falls into. If there are only 500 cases produced, I like it more. But I suspect it’s probably a 1,000 case product.

I’m also fairly certain it will have the typical Sapphire dynamics:
3 or 4 numbered parallels
1 auto
A couple rare inserts per case

The biggest thing working against this one is the UFC singles market. It’s a finicky, weird animal.

Take a look at UFC Sapphire single sales. Vastly underwhelming, although some obscure names do surprisingly well (and I'm a UFC fan). Across the board, they just don’t hold the value they probably should for a popular worldwide sport.

I know there are die-hard UFC collectors, and honestly, I think that’s a good place to be if you care about value. But for some reason, the UFC card audience doesn’t seem massive enough to prop up values across the multitude of UFC releases we’ve seen recently.

If you are a UFC collector, you could do worse than Sapphire at $250.
I wouldn’t buy it expecting to flip, or even to recoup your spend in singles. But Sapphire is always an exciting rip, and there is definitely nuke potential.

Now on to what the entire baseball community has spent two years waiting for:
2025 Topps Chrome Platinum.
(So glad they retired the word "Anniversary" from the name.)

We last saw this in 2024 with the release of 2023 Platinum Chrome, and it was a mega-hit. 2022 Platinum Chrome was also fantastic. 2021, not so much. The inaugural year ended up being the worst of the bunch due to the bloated 700-card checklist. Thankfully, it has since been trimmed to 500.

Here’s why this product is so beloved now: it’s loaded with parallels.

Of course, it’s Chrome, and everyone loves Chrome. It’s also fairly affordable Chrome, which certainly helps.

In the past, it hasn’t been much on variety. Massive base set, fairly deep rainbow of parallels, and a huge auto checklist of every name you could possibly want.

For 2025, I expect it to be noticeably better because Topps has added some much-needed inserts to the checklist to break up the monotony.

Of course, all the parallels are great.

It looks like we’re seeing 1-2 numbered cards and a handful of unnumbered parallels in blasters.
Hobby boxes appear to be landing around 5-7 numbered cards and a similar number of unnumbered parallels.

All of that is solid.

Another impactful change is the rare insert dynamic.

The only thing resembling a “case hit” in Platty has been the City Variation parallels, but they were fundamentally flawed.

First, in the past, they haven’t looked miles better than your average base card. They just had a cityscape in the background that didn’t really pop. There were ultra-rare refractors with print runs in the neighborhood of 10 copies each, but hardly anyone knew that. Again, they didn’t really stand out.

In my mind, the biggest flaw was the fact they came as a bonus pack of 4 cards, with 1 pack per Hobby case.

That dynamic is exciting when you hit one, but you better be getting your boxes from a trusted source, because it also lends itself to weighing shenanigans. If you bought Hobby boxes off eBay, I assure you the chances of hitting a City Variation pack were less than typical.

This year, they fixed it.

City Variations are seeded into packs like any other parallel. And they look better than they ever have, especially the ultra-scarce City Variation autos, which are a new addition.

They are stunning cards.

This product needed a real case hit, and that’s at least a start. I still believe there’s room for another rare insert or two that isn’t just a parallel of the base card. But hopefully that shows up down the line somewhere.

To get to the point, Platinum Chrome is a very safe buy at the drop price of $150/box.Regardless of what you plan to do with it- rip, flip, or stash- it checks all the boxes.
I don’t love that the price went up while the cards per box went down. But that’s the world we live in now, so whatever.

Without proper analysis of odds, I can’t tell you definitively whether Hobby or Value boxes are better.
Hobby will probably spike more in price. Value boxes will almost certainly produce more parallels for the same spend, but I sense a higher concentration of low-numbered stuff from Hobby.

Value boxes have shown to be a great rip, and they will likely increase in price as they dry up over the next few weeks. If you see some in the wild, I recommend snagging what you can. I will certainly be going after both formats myself. You definitely can’t go wrong with either format.

Of course, when we see odds, I’ll spend time diving in and pulling out all the details. But that’s all I can do for now.

Good luck everyone.

And be good to each other.

#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

@Whatup_wit_that Maybe thats the difference. I hit add to cart then just hit the + on the product page until it was at 40 before I went to cart.

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

@Whatup_wit_that It's already deducted from my PayPal, so I'd say we're good. I hope WalMart is savvy enough to ship a sealed case.

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

Well done sir. Many people would back out. If you follow my account, I always post print runs and analysis once odds release on products. Wouldn't necessarily have helped on this one since odds aren't out yet. But I could have let you know print runs of 2023 Gold Prisms in about 30 seconds.

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

@GeneChizikkk Dumb thieves would. Thieves that don't know cards. I mean, they did. So its hard to say they wouldn't.

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

OK y'all. This one hurts my heart.

One of the best guys in the hobby, my LCS owner Mike, had his shop broken into a few nights ago. The thieves made off with some serious stuff, and he still doesn't even know the full extent of it because he's still picking up the pieces.

If you see someone selling, flashing, or bragging about weirdly high-end stuff that feels out of character, please pay attention. Not just anyone can show up with things like a $24k box of Transcendent, rare $7500 Mahomes autos, etc, without raising some eyebrows.

This stuff represents decades of blood, sweat, and tears from one of the most upstanding families you could ever hope to meet, along with some pretty incredible team members who pour themselves into that shop every day. It makes me sick to see something like this happen to anyone, especially people like them.

I have full faith that the hobby watchdogs, dealers, collectors, and card show crews won't let this stuff quietly disappear. I don't think these criminals understand what kind of reach we have. As a collective, I assure you, we can figure this out. They don't get to just ride off into the sunset. They did this to one of us...so they did this to all of us.

Here are a couple links showing a small number of the stolen items, but there was a lot more. Please keep an eye out for anything strange. You'll know it when you see it.

And if you do see something, please say something. Thank you all.

https://t.co/VdAEifKd3i

https://t.co/mEujWY0DVv

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

@JohnsonTylerP Thanks man. Topps might disagree since I'm blatantly ripping off their designs. But it's all in fun. I know I can't profit off them or anything. And I think they're cool too.

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

@Whatup_wit_that Good stuff man. Appreciate it. I just ordered 40. It didn't say a word about a 12 box max. And it was still letting me add more to cart even after 40.

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

@JohannKennel Weird. Well, if they aren't numbered /199, they should be because that's the print run. That's why I didn't list it on my write-up as I had assumed they'd be numbered.

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

2026 Topps Chrome UFC Analysis

Yeah, yeah. I know. Chrome UFC has been out for a minute.
But here's the thing. We just got the odds sheet. And you know the Squatch is into calculation, not speculation.
The upside of being fashionably late to this one? Box prices haven't moved since release day. Some have actually dropped. So if you've been on the fence, the window hasn't closed on you yet. If anything, it got a little wider.
Which means this breakdown might actually be more useful right now than it would have been on drop day. Funny how that works.

So throw on your "fire me up" jam...commence intense trot to the octagon...tarps off...

"👈 You ready? 👉 You ready?
Let's get it on!"

Part 1: The Basics

Presales kicked off April 6th. $190 Hobby, $60 Mega, $30 Value.
Release day on May 8th saw Hobby bump to $200.

Current pricing on the Big Boy sites has actually slid back down a bit. $190 Hobby, $55 Mega, $25 Value.

This is telling. Nearly all products, even mediocre ones, have been blasting off post-release. UFC Chrome isn't playing by those rules. And honestly, I think part of it comes down to the rookie situation and fight cycle.

There's no real equivalent to a loaded rookie class in UFC. We don't see dozens of prospects showing up with a highlight reel and a hype train behind them. They grind. They build. And by the time they're headlining Fight Night cards, the "rookie" window has long passed.

The season structure doesn't help either. Fighters are active a few times a year at best, and their card value is often a direct reflection of their last performance. It's a volatile little ecosystem that doesn't behave like any traditional sport. And guys (and ladies) fall off the map quickly. Which makes Chrome UFC a different animal to evaluate.

Learn the rules, and there are probably intricate value plays to exploit. I love UFC and am an avid watcher. Unfortunately, I'm not embedded enough in the market to know those intricacies.

But I come with spreadsheets.

Part 2: Production Numbers

Total cards in the product:
16,618,640

For context:
2025 Topps Chrome UFC
9,421,680 cards
YOY +76.4%

This is a big jump. But not overly unexpected. Compare this to the recently released 2026 Topps Chrome WWE at 21.7m total cards. YOY increase on that was +174%.
Chrome is Topps' headliner, regardless of sport. And production numbers reflect that. Like with any sport, let your horses carry the load. It's good business.

Total production by format:
Hobby- 44,029 boxes (3,669 cases)> YOY +20%
Breaker- 12,120 boxes (1,515 cases)> YOY +42%
Value- 318,600 boxes (7.965 cases)> YOY +130.5%
Mega- 95,833 boxes (4,792 cases)> YOY +89.4%

Notable here is the massive increase in retail SKUs in particular. Let's see how much all this extra production watered down the product.

Part 3: Heat Map

Expected hit rates per box:
Hobby- 2 Autos, 16 parallels, 12 inserts, 5.1 numbered

Breaker's- 3 Autos, 7 parallels, 1 insert, 5 numbered (Topps says 4 numbered parallels per box. The math says 5.)

Value- 1 Auto per 9.6 boxes (4.2/case), 5.5 parallels (including 3 UFC Glove & 2 Base Refractors), 6.7 inserts, 0.64 numbered/box

Mega- 0.5 Autos (~10/case), 13.1 parallels (including 10 Xfractors), 6 inserts, 1.3 numbered

On rare inserts, I'm defining "rare" as 1 per case or tougher. That puts Immortal Force, Radiating Rookies, Helix, Hidden Gems, and Let's Go in that bucket.

Rare Inserts to expect per case:
Hobby- 1.2
Breakers- 1.2
Value- 0.8
Mega- 0.8

Of note: Big Ticket, Split Decision, Fight Night Flashback, Pulse Check, and Youthquake didn't make that cut. They're Hobby exclusives and land a little more often than once a case. Still not common, just not quite rare enough to earn the label here.
I also did not consider Kings & Queens as a rare insert as they fall two per hobby case.

Part 4: Value Map

$/card:
1) Value- $1.04
2) Mega- $1.15
3) Hobby- $1.98

$/parallel:
1) Mega- $4.19
2) Value- $4.53
3) Hobby- $11.78

$/auto:
1) Hobby- $95
2) Mega- $105.77
3) Breaker- $125

$/# card:
1) Hobby- $38.00
2) Value- $39.06
3) Mega- $42.31

Value boxes & Megas win on cost per parallel, but there's a catch. Outside of Glove parallels and base refractors, you're only pulling about 0.5 meaningful parallels per box. Megas have the same problem since most of what you're getting are unnumbered Xfractors. Lots of shiny, not a lot of substance. For actual parallel density, Hobby is where you want to be.

Inserts are almost entirely format exclusive here. Retail inserts will be more common and less coveted. Hobby has some scarce ones worth chasing even outside the rare insert tier I mentioned earlier.

For rare inserts specifically, Hobby is your most cost effective path on everything except Helix. Megas actually win that one.

Autos? Hobby wins pretty cleanly. Breaker's technically gives you one more auto per box but at a significantly higher cost. And for retail buyers, Megas are worth a look since you're hitting an auto in essentially one out of every two boxes.

One more thing worth factoring into the value equation. There's a buyback component tied to the Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje fight at UFC Freedom 250 on June 14th. Base cards and parallels of the winner are redeemable for buyback credit through your LCS or other participating shops. With a tidy 200-card base set and plenty of parallels in the product, that's a real value bump across all formats, especially retail.

Part 5: Best Format

No surprises here. Hobby is the best all-around format and it hasn't been priced into oblivion, which is a win in this hobby climate.

Five numbered cards per box is solid. And my favorite metric, Quality Hits (parallels and inserts /75 or better, Rare Inserts, autos /100 or better) lands at roughly 1 per Hobby box. That's a respectable floor.

Breaker's Delight will actually produce Quality Hits more often, around 4 per box. But the majority will be Geometrics, and I just don't think the price jump is worth it for most people.

For retail, Megas are the move. An auto every other box with 1.3 numbered per box is genuinely decent for the price point. If you need a retail fix, I would really try to stick to Megas over Value Boxes.

Bottom line: if you're a serious collector or a numbers chaser, Hobby. If you're a casual ripper or just dipping your toes into UFC Chrome or chasing some buyback credit, grab a Mega or two and have some fun with it.

Part 6: What Would the Squatch Do

UFC is a massive sport globally. Yet it's card market is still a bit of an underdog.
Singles pricing has always been my concern for UFC wax. Chrome has shown some promise there, with a handful of strong early comps in the first couple weeks. But the checklist doesn't feel tremendously deep.
The rare case hit inserts, the stuff that should be commanding real money, just don't typically carry the value you'd expect given box pricing. And I think that's a large reason why boxes have dipped a bit since release day.
Honestly though? That slide might be working in your favor right now.
If I'm ripping, Hobby seems like a genuinely fun rip at a price point you'd never see on a Chrome release for any other major sport. It's loaded by Topps Chrome standards, and the entry cost isn't offensive. Just don't buy these expecting to stash or flip. UFC wax doesn't really have that track record and nothing about this release suggests it's about to start one.
Rip it because you love the sport or love the product. Just don't rip it expecting a come up.

Part 7: The Print Runs

Base cards per subject:
~46,620 ea

Unnumbered Parallels:
Refractors- ~5,025 ea
Prism- ~660 ea
Negative- ~660 ea
Sonar- ~440 ea
UFC Glove- ~4,780 ea
Xfractors- ~4,800 ea
Geometric- ~120 ea

Unnumbered Inserts:
All-Action (50 card CL)- ~3,520 ea
All-Action Refractor- ~960 ea
All-Action Geometric- ~50 ea
1986 Topps (20 card CL)- ~3,300 ea
1986 Topps Refractor- ~980 ea
1986 Topps Geometric- ~50 ea
Striking Distance (30 card CL)- ~3,520 ea
Striking Distance Refractor- ~980 ea
Striking Distance Geometric- ~50 ea
Big Ticket (25 card CL)- ~370 ea
Split Decision (25 card CL)- ~370 ea
Fight Night Flashback (20 card CL)- ~370 ea
Pulse Check (15 card CL)- ~375 ea
Youthquake (15 card CL)- ~375 ea
Global Warriors (25 card CL)- ~24,870 ea
Global Warriors Refractor- ~1,000 ea
Allen & Ginter (30 card CL)- ~26,030 ea
Allen & Ginter Refractor- ~1,000 ea
Manifesting Moments (10 card CL)- ~26,990 ea
Manifesting Moments Refractor- ~1,000 ea
In Your Face (15 card CL)- ~26,720 ea
In Your Face Refractor- ~1,000 ea
Impact Point (20 card CL)- ~24,870 ea
Impact Point Refractor- ~1,000 ea
Kings & Queens (20 card CL)- ~370 ea

Rare Inserts:
Immortal Force (30 card CL)- ~300 ea
Radiating Rookies (20 card CL)- ~290 ea
Helix (10 card CL)- ~100 ea
Hidden Gems (5 card CL)- ~50 ea
Let's Go (5 card CL)- ~50 ea

Autos:
Base Autos (89 card CL)- ~715 ea
Base Auto Refractors- ~260 ea
Base Auto Geometric- ~50 ea
1986 Topps Signatures (30 card CL)- ~340 ea
1986 Topps Signatures Geometric- ~50 ea
Lineage Autos (29 card CL)- ~330 ea
Lineage Autos Geometric- ~50 ea
Marks of Champions (10 card CL)- ~350 ea
Marks of Champions Geometric- ~55 ea
Octagon Legends Autos (10 card CL)- ~260 ea
Octagon Legends Geometric- ~50 ea
Future Stars Autos (20 card CL)- ~280 ea
Future Stars Autos Geometric- ~50 ea

#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsChromeUFC

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

I mean, not being there when it happened, I can only postulate 🤣 But those toploaders started off on that black shelf right behind that overturned showcase. They also found a trash bag loaded with supplies of all damn things, including toploaders. It appeared to have been left behind, assuming because of weight or space concers (?). So there was someone handling them and the proximity is right there. So it's not a far stretch to assume why they ended up where they did.
That's probably the biggest reason we know this wasn't actual card hobbyists. What dumbass would take the time to go after cheap-ass supplies, then leave them behind, when there were boxes like Prizm & Flawless football on that shelf right behind? I mean, they went a long way toward clearing off the shelf, but stopped pretty much on the right edge of the photo. The front half out of frame was pretty much empty, except stuff head high and higher that they would have had to actually reach for. There are even a handful of Mahomes signed helmets on top of that shelf, well within reach. You could tell they had an outstretched arm on one side and an open trash bag in the other and just bulldozed the shelves. But supplies? Seriously? Am I to believe they were concerned about protecting all their newfound sportscards?

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

@tabby_laz @Square1Stock Well there's footage and I've seen it. It doesn't help much, just saying. But form whatever conclusions you like.

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

@JohannKennel Aren't they both numbered /199?

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

The investigator said many of these are done by young hired hands, 17-year-olds so even if they get caught the punishments aren't severe because they're minors.

These people were obviously not card people. They didn't know what they were getting. It also appeared one of them was female, indicated by the eyelashes sticking out of the ski mask. Their DNA has been collected and being sent for analysis. I wonder if they're worried. I know I would be.

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

@crc192003 These particular ones had no idea what they were after. It does seem most would not want the extra noise. But the destruction was what they had to do to get themselves into the locked showcases. I don't think it was a personal thing.

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

@ROIdegen24 @OffDaHook35 Yes

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

@dewdewdrops Couldn't agree more.

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

@bluemortal001 The local police have been amazingly helpful. They are taking it personally. They're even getting DNA on drops of blood that were found.

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

So you know the deal. It truly brings out the haters too. People that have no idea who you are telling you what you did wrong.
Crazy thing was these two were not card people. They definitely scooped some expensive shit, but some of theyre choices in what to take and what to leave were truly baffling. They loaded up a bag with supplies when there were boxes of Prizm & Flawless not 10 feet away. They didn't pick and choose. Just cleared off shelves they could reach and left many very expensive items.

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

@Rynkc26 They are more fair to sell to than any shop I've ever dealt with.