Backlog Alpha

Finding growth before it gets crowded.

📈 Growth • Backlog • Earnings • Valuation • Catalysts

Research over hype. High-conviction ideas.

Not financial advice

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

$ONDS and $UMAC are quietly becoming two of the most connected names in the U.S. drone ecosystem.

This chart is insane.

Money is flowing through:

• DoD contracts
• Strategic investments
• Component orders
• Partnerships
• Acquisitions
• Counter-drone programs

And both companies keep showing up in the middle of it.

The drone industry isn’t just growing.

It’s building an entire ecosystem around a small group of players.

Follow the contracts.
Follow the capital.
Follow the backlog.

$ONDS $UMAC $RCAT

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

$QCOM just filed for the potential resale of up to 25 MILLION shares tied to warrants issued to $AMZN.

Here’s what actually matters:

• Amazon can acquire up to 25M Qualcomm shares
• Exercise price: $161.26/share
• Full exercise would require roughly $4.03B
• Warrants expire in 2036
• Vesting is tied to Amazon purchase commitments and actual spending with Qualcomm
• Up to $60B in payments can determine full vesting
• 3.75M shares vested immediately based on initial commitments

Important: a resale registration does not mean Amazon is dumping 25M shares now. It simply gives Amazon the ability to resell shares if and when the warrants are exercised.

The bigger story is the commercial relationship.

Amazon spending more with Qualcomm → more warrants vest → deeper alignment between the two companies.

That’s what I’d be watching.

$QCOM $AMZN

#Qualcomm #Amazon #AI #Semiconductors #Stocks #Investing

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

Some of the most interesting setups in the market right now have one thing in common:

Insiders are buying with real size.

$SOFI — CEO Anthony Noto bought $2.25M at an average of $17.29.

$GRAB — CEO Anthony Tan bought roughly $30M, while COO Alexander Hungate added another ~$900K.

$ORCL — Director Stephen Rusckowski bought $3.48M on the open market around $139.35.

$UBER — CEO Dara Khosrowshahi bought roughly $10M around $70.96, with President & COO Andrew Macdonald adding another ~$5.3M.

$NKE — CEO Elliott Hill and board member Tim Cook each bought roughly $1M around $42, after earlier purchases near $60.

Insiders sell for countless reasons.

But when executives put millions of their own dollars into the businesses they know from the inside, that gets my attention.

No guarantee the stock goes up.

But skin in the game matters.

Follow the insiders.
Follow the conviction. 👀

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

@StokPix @zerohedge Maybe if there’s a trace back I might buy $NVDA

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

@StokPix This video was great.

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

The semiconductor power shift over the last decade is insane.

2016:

$INTC — $160B
$TSM — $114B
$AVGO — $39B
$NVDA — $17B
$AMD — $2B

2026:

$NVDA — $5.7T
$TSM — $2.4T
$AVGO — $1.6T
$AMD — $1T
$INTC — $605B

Same five companies.

Completely different order.

The biggest story isn’t just how much semiconductor valuations exploded.

It’s where the value moved.

From CPUs → GPUs → AI accelerators → foundries → networking.

$NVDA went from ~$17B to ~$5.7T.

$AMD went from ~$2B to ~$1T.

The AI infrastructure buildout didn’t just create winners.

It completely rewrote the semiconductor hierarchy.

Follow the infrastructure. Follow the backlog. 📈

#AI #Semiconductors #NVDA #AMD #TSM #AVGO #INTC

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

@Randomguy171301 🚀

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

$ONDS and $UMAC are quietly becoming two of the most connected names in the U.S. drone ecosystem.

This chart is insane.

Money is flowing through:

• DoD contracts
• Strategic investments
• Component orders
• Partnerships
• Acquisitions
• Counter-drone programs

And both companies keep showing up in the middle of it.

The drone industry isn’t just growing.

It’s building an entire ecosystem around a small group of players.

Follow the contracts.
Follow the capital.
Follow the backlog.

$ONDS $UMAC $RCAT

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

My Mag 7 ranking right now:

🟢 $AMZN — STRONG BUY
🟢 $NVDA — STRONG BUY

🟡 $META — BUY
🟡 $GOOGL — BUY

⚪ $MSFT — HOLD
⚪ $AAPL — HOLD

🔴 $TSLA — HOLD / AVOID

They’re all great businesses.

But great businesses can still be very different investments depending on valuation, growth, margins and expectations.

Right now, Amazon and Nvidia are the two I like most.

Tesla is the one I’d be most careful with at current expectations.

NFA.

What’s your Mag 7 ranking?

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

@Marenemf $TSLA doesn’t just need growth it needs massive growth to justify the premium. Do you autonomy + optimus get it there?

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

The Mag 7 usually moves as a group.

But on valuation, $TSLA is playing a completely different game.

$AMZN — ~20x P/E
$GOOGL — ~16x
$META — ~25x
$NVDA — ~24x
$MSFT — ~28x
$AAPL — ~38x

Then there’s:

$TSLA — 300x+ P/E

Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Nvidia are being valued largely on the earnings they’re producing today.

Tesla is being valued on what investors believe could come next:

Autonomy.
Optimus.
AI.
Robotaxis.
Energy.

$TSLA isn’t just the outlier in the Mag 7.

It might be the clearest example of the market pricing the future before it arrives.

Follow the expectations. Follow the valuation. 👀

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

The part of the $UBER story I think the market is underestimating:

Its fastest-growing businesses are also some of the ones least exposed to AV disruption.

Delivery is already growing faster than Mobility.

Q2 Gross Bookings:
• Delivery: $27.5B
• Mobility: $29.0B

Growth in constant currency:

Delivery Gross Bookings
Q1: +23%
Q2: +25%

Mobility Gross Bookings
Q1: +20%
Q2: +20%

Revenue growth tells the same story.

Delivery:
Q1: +28%
Q2: +26%

Mobility:
Q1: +15%
Q2: +14%

And then there’s Delivery Hero.

That acquisition could add $40B+ in annual gross bookings and $1.1B+ in segment EBITDA.

If that plays out, Delivery could become the larger part of Uber by gross bookings as soon as next year.

Everyone keeps talking about robotaxis disrupting $UBER .

Meanwhile, Uber is quietly becoming much more than a rideshare company.

That’s the part I’m watching.

#UBER #Stocks #Investing #Delivery #AutonomousVehicles #BacklogAlpha

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

@_Warbucks1 👍

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

JUST IN: $RTX just landed a contract worth up to $24.4 BILLION to produce SM-6 interceptors for the U.S. Navy.

This is the kind of contract defense investors pay attention to.

• 5-year base term
• 2 additional option years
• SM-6 production expected to ramp
• Billions of dollars of future demand locked in

Defense spending is one thing.

Contracted demand is another.

$RTX just added a massive piece of revenue visibility to the story.

Follow the orders.
Follow the backlog. 👀

$RTX #Defense #Stocks #Investing

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

@EdgeCGroup Insider buys are always a big sign of what’s to come.

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

@DrMihaiSilion That’s the part that stands out to me too. If AI + Cloud keep compounding, 16x starts to look hard to ignore.

What do you think drives the rerating first Gemini monetization or stronger Cloud margins?

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

@StokPix The question now is how much of that $120B+ backlog actually converts into revenue over the next few years and whether AI pushes the next update even higher.

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

Just insane from $GOOGL.

Cloud backlog is up 380% since 2022, and the curve is only getting steeper.

This is one of the clearest signs that AI + cloud demand is turning into real contracted revenue visibility.

And now we’re less than a month away from the next backlog update.

That number is going to matter a lot.

$GOOGL #Stocks #AI #Cloud #Investing

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

@NatureRoot88 Looks really nice.

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

10 WAYS TO PLAY THE PENTAGON’S DRONE PUSH 👀

The Pentagon just created a new Autonomous Warfare Command as drones, robotics and AI move deeper into U.S. defense strategy. At the same time, the FY2027 budget request includes roughly $53.6B for autonomy, drone platforms and contested logistics, alongside about $20B for counter-drone and related capabilities. Those figures are requests and remain subject to congressional action.

That means the opportunity isn’t just in companies building drones.

It stretches across the entire stack:

• $DPRO — tactical + public-safety drones
• $RCAT — Black Widow short-range reconnaissance
• $UMAC — U.S.-built FPV motors + drone components
• $KTOS — attritable autonomous combat aircraft
• $AXON — Dedrone counter-UAS + airspace security
• $TDY — Black Hornet nano reconnaissance drones
• $ONDS — autonomous drones + ground robotics + C-UAS
• $MRCY — secure processing + RF systems at the tactical edge
• $AVEX — autonomous systems + precision-strike platforms
• $AVAV — Switchblade, autonomous systems + counter-UAS

The drone buildout is becoming an ecosystem trade.

Platforms.
Sensors.
Autonomy.
Components.
Counter-drone.
Secure processing.

Follow the spending.
Follow the contracts.
Follow the backlog. 👀

$DPRO $RCAT $UMAC $KTOS $AXON $TDY $ONDS $MRCY $AVEX $AVAV

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

I agree with the broader point here.

Successful businesses don’t just create wealth for founders.

They create jobs.
They build supply chains.
They pay vendors.
They fund innovation.
They create opportunities for millions of people around them.

You can debate taxes, inequality and how wealth should be distributed — but building companies at the scale of $AMZN , $TSLA and $ORCL creates enormous economic value.

I’d rather focus on creating more successful companies and more opportunity than attacking people simply for becoming successful.

What do you think?

[Spencer Pratt @spencerpratt]

Elon Musk, Larry Ellison, and Jeff Bezos spend $150B per year to directly employ nearly 2 MILLION people. Thats an average of $85K per year for 2 million people to put a roof over their head, feed their families, buy a car. I don’t have that insecure commie gene that makes people hate successful people. I see successful people and I admire them. Even when I’ve lost everything and am taking on SBA disaster loans, I still can’t fathom hating rich people just for being rich. Not all rich people earned their wealth…I live in LA, trust me, I know. But if you build a business and employ millions of people, I just don’t understand the hate. It’s pure envy and self-loathing. The irony is so much of this hate comes from people driving Teslas and ordering on Amazon while bitching on social media platforms powered by Oracle servers. This commie mentality is loserthink.

[Backlog Alpha @BacklogAlpha]

@Polymarket 👍