@0xasrequired "UK sanctions apply globally" is wild. Together with the dusting issue it's only a matter of time before more ppl get affected by this.
But optimistic this will mature and resolve in time. Best of luck sir!
This explains why the incumbent exchanges like @CMEGroup and @NYSE have been so focused on @HyperliquidX - it's not just that they are 24/7 and are reaching people who are not currently served - it's also that they are cheaper.
More often than not, it's all about price.
@HypeStrat $PURR @tradexyz
More broad view on recent $HYPE PA too
Circle news was absolutely not a "known known". Nobody had it priced in, instant +$200m to ARR with an extra $12.5m per 25bp rate hike if we see those. Durable, uncorrelated, straight juice to buybacks. The candle straight to $46 was just the instant rerating based on this news to a similar multiple as when it was $38-40.
CME KYC FUD was absolutely known and has been generally priced in for some time now. The entire reason $HYPE is so "cheap" now IS the regulatory uncertainty. The reason you can buy it at $40 when it can go to $100+ IS because it can also go to $20 if there's some massive crackdown. There's no free ride, the rewards just outweigh these risks. This is not new news to anyone familiar with the thesis.
This is also why the @HyperliquidPC is such an underrated and important part of the bull case, and why the Circle news is actually much more bullish than just the immediate ARR boost. @jchervinsky is arguably as integral to the $HYPE bull case right now as the Jeffs.
The most pervasive theme from the current admin is wanting to preserve American hegemony and reshore industries that have been pushed away due to regulation, especially for crypto.
Coinbase and Circle are the most entrenched and informed entities in crypto lobbying and regulation. If they feel the need to give @HyperliquidX 90% of their revenue, how much risk do you think they assign to some existential threat crippling Hyperliquid? How much leverage did Hyperliquid clearly have in that conversation? They practically enacted Prima Nocta on Circle.
The fact that the CME KYC FUD basically erased this news is a complete mispricing, and more so a broader macro/rates/stocks looking toppy move. $HYPE looks much more relatively cheap compared to the rest of the industry after this boost to ARR and regulatory derisking.
The upside of being king-made in the US alongside Circle and Coinbase is considerably higher than the risks. Reality sits much closer to the bear case (US ban/crackdown) than the unfettered mass adoption that could ensue in the next 3-6 months.
If you're macro bearish, $HYPE long / everything else short pair trades are incredibly attractive at these levels imo. I also like pretty deep OTM longer dated calls.