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@michaeljburry@michaeljburry Dwarkesh did not nail it. He had already made up his mind and wasn't asking questions to get answers but rather to confirm his own beliefs. Jensen explained it well towards the end. Also gave an interesting thesis on why Anthropic uses Amazon's chips...
5Y ago, we warned: Investors should be cautious because high-flyers were priced for perfection, leaving little margin of safety.
Today, some produce 3-6 times the cash flows, but stocks have declined 50-80%!
AI disruption worries are justified, but babies are being thrown out with the bathwater.
Safe to say: Margin of safety is back for investors who understand and can value businesses.
At RICHTWERT, we always worry top-down and invest bottom-up looking for limited downside risk and great upside potential.
Comment with "margin of safety" to find out more!
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"I promise to not raise your taxes" and "I promise to not cut your benefits" are the two popular political promises that are inconsistent with the much more needed promise "I promise to cut the budget deficit to about 3 percent of GDP" that is required to prevent a big debt/dollar crisis. There is no way that the deficit/debt bomb problem can be sustainably dealt with unless there is a mix of tax revenue increases and spending decreases that are determined in a bipartisan way. Our representatives in Washington, DC, both Republicans and Democrats, know this is true. They understand the need to reduce the deficit by having those from both sides chip in a bit (e.g., a 4 percent increase in tax revenue and a 4 percent spending cut) which would lead to a supply/demand balance improvement for US debt which in turn would lower interest rates. Lower interest rates would help reduce the budget deficit as well as help the markets and the economy. But because politics have become so absolutist, they feel they can't go down this obviously best path because both their constituents and their parties will throw them out of office if they explored this more balanced approach. To me, that’s a tragedy.
Incentives matter tremendously! Making members of Congress ineligible for re-election if the US deficit is more than 3% of GDP would put the US back into a sustainable position very quickly. It may be the only way too! And it is very necessary.
🚨 JUST IN: Elon Musk just ENDORSED a constitutional amendment which would make members of Congress INELIGIBLE for re-election if the deficit is more than 3% GDP
Lawmakers would shape up QUICKLY! 🔥
@CernBasher@CernBasher Apple has managed to differentiate itself in a duopoly so that it owns more than half the market. Curious to know what you think would allow Tesla to a) own 10-20% of the bot market and b) why profits would not be competed away after the initial few years.
@wholemars Those proposing idealistic communist ideas should read a book or just observe history. But since they are unlikely to do that they should think about how billions of ICE cars should be replaced… and realize that Tesla is a very promising solution.
@TSLAFanMtl I am constantly surprised that people are surprised by businesses adapting to circumstances.
Still will be challenging to make it work but Tesla is relatively good at solving challenges 😀
@TSLAFanMtl 1) Businessmen don‘t predict the future, they build it.
2) businesses go through cycles, one cannot control everything.
3) It‘s much easier to criticize than to create value.
@wholemars A big Tesla and Elon fan myself. But I don’t understand why the Tesla community tries so hard to tell the world how great a company Tesla is. I would much prefer if people underestimate Tesla and the stock price continues to drop so we who understand can buy more at lower prices
@elonmusk@SawyerMerritt and the pricing strategy can be improved as well. Price should be based on value not cost and pricing including FSD should be predictable
@alex_avoigt FSD is unbelievable already and will become shockingly good!
But the more important question is how long it will take for others to have something nearly as good with the help of Nvidia? And what that might mean for FSD margins?
Anyone: Why will FSD be high margin in 5-7 Y?
@elonmusk@alex_avoigt The more important question is how long will it take for the competition to have something nearly as good with the help of Nvidia? And what that might mean for FSD margins?
FSD is an unbelievable accomplishment already and will become shockingly good!