we fucked up.
we spent the last week wondering why we were hemorrhaging money. welp.. we found the issue:
on jul 24 we found a pipeline bug: for 11 days our model was making picks off data that had stopped updating. we went 27-32 (−$1,008 at $100/play) on picks it never should have made.
we've refunded every affected subscriber. all zero of them. being early has its perks.
we re-ran those same 11 days on fresh data resulting in a 23-17 record. the bug cost us roughly $900. doesn't matter, the 27-32 stays on our record. our pipeline, our L.
the fix is in as of jul 24. new goal for july: get back in the black.. or at least a less embarrassing shade of red.
funniest part? through the entire broken stretch our free pick of the day went 6-1. the one pick we gave away for free was the only thing working.
full story, dated and logged: https://t.co/oQo3NeKJs0 → model log
free pick record: 6-5
tonight's board: 10 plays. 6 under, 4 over.
free pick, on us: peter lambert under 5.5 k. was -110 at betmgm when we grabbed it, we project 4.4.
we've also got eyes on bubba chandler, logan henderson, gerrit cole, michael king. those sides are on the board at https://t.co/oQo3NeKJs0
record so far: 43-47, graded in public, losses included.
free pick record: 5-5
tonight's board: 4 plays. 2 under, 2 over.
free pick, on us: tatsuya imai under 6.5 k. was -135 at betmgm when we grabbed it, we project 4.8.
we've also got eyes on andrew alvarez, max fried, jack perkins. those sides are on the board at https://t.co/oQo3NeKJs0
record so far: 41-46, graded in public, losses included.
Jacob Misiorowski struck out 12 of the 17 batters he faced today.
That's the 4th-highest K rate in any 12+ strikeout start since 1910. Behind only Chris Sale (twice) and MacKenzie Gore.
Ahead of Kerry Wood's and Randy Johnson's 20-K games.
Jacob Misiorowski: 12 K through 4 innings. 64 pitches.
13 K through 5 has happened 10 times since 1910.
14 K through 5 has NEVER happened.
watching live.
free pick record: 6-3
tonight's board: 10 plays. 2 under, 8 over.
free pick, on us: carson whisenhunt under 4.5 k. was -129 at draftkings when we grabbed it, we project 3.6.
we've also got eyes on andrew abbott, drew rasmussen, walker buehler, luinder avila. those sides are on the board at https://t.co/oQo3NeKJs0
record so far: 36-41, graded in public, losses included.
tonight's board: 8 plays. 4 under, 4 over.
free pick, on us: ryan weathers under 6.5 k. was -156 at draftkings when we grabbed it, we project 4.6.
we've also got eyes on robert gasser, robbie ray, shota imanaga, foster griffin. those sides are on the board at https://t.co/oQo3NeKJs0
record so far: 33-37, graded in public, losses included.
tonight's board: 8 plays. 4 under, 4 over.
free pick, on us: ryan weathers under 6.5 k. was -156 at draftkings when we grabbed it, we project 4.6.
we've also got eyes on robert gasser, robbie ray, shota imanaga, foster griffin. those sides are on the board at https://t.co/oQo3NeKJs0
record so far: 33-37, graded in public, losses included.
tonight's board: 11 plays. 9 under, 2 over.
free pick, on us: mackenzie gore under 6.5 k. was -140 at betmgm when we grabbed it, we project 5.4.
we've also got eyes on trey yesavage, jacob lopez, spencer arrighetti, sean manaea. those sides are on the board at https://t.co/oQo3NeKJs0
record so far: 27-32, graded in public, losses included.
tonight's board: 11 plays. 9 under, 2 over.
free pick, on us: mackenzie gore under 6.5 k. was -140 at betmgm when we grabbed it, we project 5.4.
we've also got eyes on trey yesavage, jacob lopez, spencer arrighetti, sean manaea. those sides are on the board at https://t.co/oQo3NeKJs0
record so far: 27-32, graded in public, losses included.
tonight's board: 5 plays. 3 under, 2 over.
free pick, on us: brandon pfaadt over 3.5 k. was +106 at fanduel when we grabbed it, we project 4.5.
we've also got eyes on troy melton, taj bradley, gavin williams, ian seymour. those sides are on the board at https://t.co/oQo3NeKJs0
record so far: 24-30, graded in public, losses included.
tonight's board: 5 plays. 3 under, 2 over.
free pick, on us: brandon pfaadt over 3.5 k. was +106 at fanduel when we grabbed it, we project 4.5.
we've also got eyes on troy melton, taj bradley, gavin williams, ian seymour. those sides are on the board at https://t.co/oQo3NeKJs0
record so far: 24-30, graded in public, losses included.
tonight's board: 10 plays. 5 under, 5 over.
free pick, on us: peter lambert under 5.5 k. was -140 at betmgm when we grabbed it, we project 4.3.
we've also got eyes on emerson hancock, jake bennett, landen roupp, gerrit cole. those sides are on the board at https://t.co/oQo3NeKJs0
record so far: 19-25, graded in public, losses included.
tonight's board: 10 plays. 5 under, 5 over.
free pick, on us: peter lambert under 5.5 k. was -140 at betmgm when we grabbed it, we project 4.3.
we've also got eyes on emerson hancock, jake bennett, landen roupp, gerrit cole. those sides are on the board at https://t.co/oQo3NeKJs0
record so far: 19-25, graded in public, losses included.