Wei Bao

财经观察 & 地缘分析 同时记录在魁北克的真实育儿与生存挑战; Documenting the real challenges of parenting and survival in Montréal

[ThinkReal @thinkReal]

$ONDS thesis by @BMSInvests is out.

Product supplier → autonomous defense platform.
Solid deep dive.

Read it 🚀

[BMSInvests @BMSInvests]

🚨👀 $ONDS Investment Thesis - @BMSInvests

Excited to share my first ever investment thesis for $ONDS with you all.

Took me a lot of work to pull this together so would appreciate any likes and reposts.

Hope you enjoy🫡👊🏻

[Wei Bao @baowei0964]

@woaitaoershi 回到支撑位了吗？是不是可以入手了？

[The Long Investor @TheLongInvest]

$HIMS experienced capitulation on Friday after the peptides recommendations which is a VERY positive event for $HIMS

Market makers tried to trigger weak hands but could not force the price action to lose support

$HIMS bulls have been through this nonsense many times

And the share price never fails to move higher

Higher highs and higher lows are still observed but now their fundamentals have just got stronger

Last Friday was an opportunity

[qinbafrank @qinbafrank]

谷歌二季度财报，先说最受关注的：
1）谷歌云248亿美金，同比增速82%，比我之前最乐观73%的增速还高了9个点，36%的利润率；
2）季度自由现金流 - 58.55 亿美元，由正转负，短期大量投入压制现金回报。
3）上调2026全年资本开支指引至1950亿~2050亿美元，之前是1800亿~1900亿美元。预计2027年的资本支出将显著增加；
4）现金储备+有价证券合计2424.74 亿美元，资金储备充足；
5）营收1198亿美元，同比增长24%；稀释后EPS9.11美元（有股权收益的扰动）。Google 搜索及其他业务增长 17%，Google 订阅、平台和设备业务增长 15%，略低于预期。

怎么看这份财报？
1）最核心还是谷歌云业务，Cloud没有因为一季度63%的高基数而减速，反而继续加速至82%。已经在快速成为决定公司整体增长和估值框架的核心业务。

这是明显的业务拐点，而不仅仅是“增速数字好看”。

2）资本开支继续提升，就像周二晚上这里https://t.co/P7AJDtTAAT聊到的：在当下AI军备竞赛大背景下，capex是不会降的，谁降谁落后

3）当然capex的提升，带来的自由现金流转负，二季度fcf已经是-59亿美金。如果说市场担心当然是担心这里，26年上调、27年也要上调，基本上之后两个季度fcf也不容乐观，市场的担心也是源于此、盘后📉也是跌的这部分。

4）capex上修，半导体产业链那还是受益的。

这其实是一个时间差：企业要为未来的战略投资布局，钱得先往外花，花钱速度还在加速，虽然还没回本但赚钱效应和速度已经明显起来了还在加速。

[Wei Bao @baowei0964]

BTC

[Wei Bao @baowei0964]

@saylor Just do it

[很大很大的橙子 @0xVeryBigOrange]

https://t.co/NdYRTWkOrv

[Wei Bao @baowei0964]

@JohnsonZ91127 190, 203

[Wei Bao @baowei0964]

@octopusycc 今天出啥事了？这么刺激

[Wei Bao @baowei0964]

@TheValueTrade Tomorrow

[Wei Bao @baowei0964]

@CitronResearch You should have gone to prison long ago, you bastard

[Wei Bao @baowei0964]

@SanzaDustin @CitronResearch Absolutely, This big jerk!

[andrewdudum @AndrewDudum]

Today, we closed our acquisition of Eucalyptus, advancing our position as the world’s largest consumer health platform.

When @_Timdoyle and I first met, healthcare looked very different (and so did our lives - I was a first-time dad, still on paternity leave when we had our first lunch). Proactive healthcare still felt niche and the concept of direct-to-consumer access was misunderstood as a trend.

Five years later, the world has changed (and so has life – I’m now a dad to three boys, and Tim’s a father, too). People are no longer willing to navigate through arbitrary barriers for the simplest kinds of care. Healthcare innovators like drugmakers and diagnostic companies have realized connecting directly with individuals is the most powerful way to grow.

But what has stayed the same is how aligned Tim and I are on what the future of health can and should be. It’s simple, deeply personal, and built for everyday life. It became clear at the end of last year that the time has never been more right to come together.

Today, we’re operating as one company, focused on reaching millions of people around the world with a version of health that feels like a luxury, but doesn’t cost like one. Combining Eucalyptus’ local expertise with our scale means we can serve millions of people around the world and expand the network effects of the platform. We’ll become an everyday health companion and a partner to other healthcare innovators who want to build long-term relationships with their customers.

I told the entire team this morning: The most enduring consumer companies are the ones that create a completely new way of experiencing the most personal parts of our lives. My kids deserve a different version of health than I got. So do Tim’s. So do yours. That’s what we’re building at Hims & Hers and I can’t wait for the world to see what’s possible.

https://t.co/XIampqFSST

Read more here, including important footnotes and disclaimers: https://t.co/4A919nDjTO

[The Long Investor @TheLongInvest]

$HIMS

Half way there!!

[Wei Bao @baowei0964]

@wave3trades 何时加仓比较好！

[Wei Bao @baowei0964]

@SuisPasDaVinci 赶紧买一张试试

[The Value Trader @TheValueTrade]

$HIMS if only someone had told you...

[Wei Bao @baowei0964]

@Cantal_Capital Absolutely

[华尔街观察 Xtrader @cnfinancewatch]

为什么我长期持有，如特斯拉，股价没涨，但我还是挣了？

下面告诉你方法：

长期看好一只美股，就用 卖Put→接货→卖Covered Call→被行权→再卖Put 循环，一边低成本持股，一边每月“收租”。下面直接给可执行模板。

一、没持仓时：用 Cash-Secured Put 低价建仓（边等边收钱）

适合：长期看好、现在略贵，想跌下来再买。

操作（以 AAPL 为例，现价 $190）

1. 卖 1 张虚值 Put：行权价 $170（比现价低10–15%），30天到期，收权利金 $3/股（共 $300）。

2. 账户留足现金：$170×100=$17,000（现金担保，避免裸卖风险）。

三种结果

• ✅ 股价 ≥$170：期权作废，白拿 $300，下月继续卖Put。

• ✅ 股价 <$170：被行权，$170 买入100股，实际成本 = $170−$3 = $167（比现价便宜）。

• ⚠️ 大跌：仍要按$170接货，但因为长期看好，等于“越跌越买、成本更低”。

参数模板（通用）

• 行权价：现价−10~20%（安全边际）。

• 到期：30~45天（时间衰减快、回笼快）。

• 权利金：目标2~4%/月（年化20–40%，随波动率）。
二、已持仓后：滚动 Covered Call 持股收租（不涨就收钱，涨了也乐意卖）

适合：已持有100股以上、长期不卖、愿意放弃短期暴涨换稳定现金流。

操作（持有100股 AAPL，成本 $167，现价 $190）

1. 卖 1 张虚值Call：行权价 $210（比现价高10%），30天到期，收权利金 $4/股（共 $400）。

2. 一手对应100股，有多少股卖多少张（100股=1张，200股=2张）。

三种结果

• ✅ 股价 ≤$210：期权作废，白拿 $400，下月继续卖Call（持股不动）。

• ✅ 股价 >$210：被行权，$210 卖出100股，净赚 = ($210−$167)+$4 = $47/股；之后回到第一步，重新卖Put再接回。

• ⚠️ 大涨（如$250）：错过超额收益，但长期来看，每月权利金+偶尔行权止盈，长期收益通常强于纯持有。

参数模板（通用）

• 行权价：现价+5~15%（尽量不被行权，又能多收租）。

• 到期：30天（时间衰减最快，适合月循环）。

• 权利金：目标2~3%/月（年化20–30%，高波动时更高）。
三、完整循环：Put→持股→Call→行权→再Put（长期持有+持续现金流）

1. 阶段1（空仓）：卖虚值Put → 收权利金 → 没跌就重复；跌了就低价接货。

2. 阶段2（持仓）：卖虚值Covered Call → 收权利金 → 没涨就长期持有、月月收租；涨了就高价卖出。

3. 阶段3（卖出后）：回到阶段1，重新卖Put，等待低价再接回，循环往复。

核心逻辑

• 长期看好 = 不怕跌、愿意长期拿。

• 卖Put = 降价买+先收钱。

• 卖Call = 不涨收钱、涨了止盈。

• 循环 = 永远在“低价买、高价卖、中间收租”，但始终围绕你看好的那只股。
四、风控与纪律（长期活下去的关键）

1. 只做你敢拿10年的股：如 AAPL、MSFT、NVDA 等，不碰概念股。

2. 永远现金担保卖Put：绝不裸卖，防止大跌爆仓。

3. 仓位不重：单股期权占用资金 ≤20%，不梭哈。

4. 行权价纪律：Put 虚值10–20%，Call 虚值5–15%，不贪深虚、不做平值。

5. 接受卖飞：长期来看，权利金+多次循环收益 > 单次暴涨，心态要稳。

方法：

用卖Put“打折买”，用Covered Call“持股收租+高价卖”，被行权后再卖Put接回，围绕好公司无限循环——长期持有、持续现金流、成本越做低。

[Wei Bao @baowei0964]

@IamRamenPanda $TEM +$HIMS