Barlowe Analytics

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

Current Evaluation Metrics:
Win Probability Model

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

@AdamRackis Why are you such a giant fucking loser

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

Created a fantasy prediction app for NFL. Right now only has QB/RB/TE/WR. Working on kickers and defense. https://t.co/zuhGgPonMS

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

Here are the top/bottom 10 player effects in the 2015 to 2025. For RBs that have only played for one team I tried to adjust for team/OC effects as well but I'm not super confident in the effects on someone like Kyren Williams

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

I've increased the seasons so the regression covers 2015 to 2025. It shrinks the effect of OC and none of the CI's include zero. The same does not hold for DC preventing run EPA though

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

Which Defensive Coordinators affect the Opponent Rush EPA the most the past five seasons

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

Which Offensive Coordinators effect Rush EPA over the last five seasons

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

Defensive Team Effects on RB EPA

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

Offensive Team Effects on RB EPA

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

RB posterior distributions on player effects on EPA for the last five seasons

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

🏈🏈

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

Result: Four-Seam Fastball — Foul
Prediction missed: expected Slider
Top 9, count 0-0, 0 out
SF 4 @ BOS 6

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

Next pitch: Aroldis Chapman to Turner Hill
Top calls: Slider 95% | Splitter 5%
Expected location: (-0.18, 2.25) ft
Top 9, count 0-0, 0 out
SF 4 @ BOS 6

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

Result: Sinker — Called Strike
Prediction missed: expected Changeup
Bot 8, count 0-0, 0 out
SF 4 @ BOS 6

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

Next pitch: Jason Foley to Mickey Gasper
Top calls: Changeup 55% | Slider 45%
Expected location: (-0.15, 2.21) ft
Bot 8, count 0-0, 0 out
SF 4 @ BOS 6

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

Result: Sinker — Foul
Prediction missed: expected Slider
Top 8, count 0-0, 0 out
SF 4 @ BOS 6

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

Next pitch: Alec Gamboa to Bryce Eldridge
Top calls: Slider 67% | Four-Seam Fastball 25%
Expected location: (-0.13, 2.41) ft
Top 8, count 0-0, 0 out
SF 4 @ BOS 6

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

Result: Slider — Ball
Prediction matched: expected Slider
Bot 7, count 0-0, 0 out
SF 4 @ BOS 6

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

Next pitch: Jason Foley to Caleb Durbin
Top calls: Slider 99% | Changeup 1%
Expected location: (0.19, 2.30) ft
Bot 7, count 0-0, 0 out
SF 4 @ BOS 6

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

Result: Sinker — Foul Bunt
Prediction missed: expected Changeup
Top 7, count 0-0, 0 out
SF 4 @ BOS 6

[Barlowe Analytics @barloweanalytic]

Next pitch: Erik Miller to Jonah Cox
Top calls: Changeup 55% | Slider 23%
Expected location: (0.12, 2.28) ft
Top 7, count 0-0, 0 out
SF 4 @ BOS 6