Να πω πάντως μπράβο @Kessaris_ γιατί απο νωρις δεν έμενες μόνο στά xGDiff αλλά ειχες πιασει το κονσεπτ «καλύτερος/χειρότερος/ισα βαρκα ίσα νερα».*
Σε αυτή τη παγίδα φαίνεται να εχει πέσει η φετινή Λιβερπουλ.
(*μόνο που η δική σου διαφορά είναι στα 0.4xG, του Athletic στα 0.6)
Liverpool have “won” 17 matches this season on xG. Wrote about why this is meaningless info for a good chunk of games.
xPoints tables help contextualise their real performance levels, but a lack of game-state awareness makes them pretty flawed too.
https://t.co/xwlxcGbu3j
@DogmaticTower@carbo_al WWII has played a “sacred” almost existential role in Britain’s collective memory. It’s defining good and evil and helps form a “moral superiority” identity that increasingly grew over the years through films, pop culture and how history has been taught.
@TheodoreLytras Δεν είναι τελείως ακυρο επιχείρημα to be fair. Το πιο σωστό ερώτημα όμως θα ήταν για τον πρώτο παγκόσμιο. Εκεί όντως υπάρχουν κενά στην επικρατούσα αφήγηση.
@CKanel@TheodoreLytras Ισχύει αυτό και το εθεσες με πραγματικά πολύ ωραία λόγια.
Αλλά επίσης ισχύει οτι την Ιστορία την γράφουν οι νικητές, οπότε κάποιες φορές είναι όντως καλό να ψαχνουμε την αλήθεια εστω και αν αυτό μας ωθήσει στο να αναθεωρούμε αφηγήσεις.
(Γενικά, όχι για Β’ΠΠ απαραίτητα)
@WBellhem@xGPhilosophy I agree in using probabilities and trust the metrics of individual shots. I just find their sum and the use of the word “expected” misleading in the context of such a small sample. Creation of big chances is a better proxy imo
@WBellhem@xGPhilosophy You need a very large number of incidents for the probabilities to “settle” around the actual number. It won’t always work with a small sample size as you have with nr of shots in 90’. Hence misleading. Over an entire season probably yes, but not over 1-2 games.
@OptaJoe In other words, for anyone 70 years old (b.1955) or younger, this is the worst Liverpool 12-game spell of our lives! Pretty remarkable and quite sad 😢
Finally!!!
The sum of xG alone is misleading. Shooting with 10% chance for 10 times, doesn’t mean that you get to one goal!
These shots are independent. Probabilities don’t add up like that.
You don’t “deserve” a goal if you shoot 10 crapy shots.
@OptaAnalyst@xGPhilosophy
@xGPhilosophy why we still believe in xG when in reality is just a mountain of terrible chances? this is not the representation of the game, let alone the justification for Liverpool
Hard to overstate the crisis engulfing the German economy - investment & goods exports in free fall, private consumption stagnant (despite higher population), only the size of government is growing.
Energy prices, US tariffs, China shock 2.0 - Germany needs a new growth model.