Barry

[Paul Graham @paulg]

Man do I want Paraguay to lose. Not just because they deserve to, but because I don't want to have to watch any more of them.

[good @thenarrator]

the most interesting open research problems in prediction markets right now (for me):

> scalar market design: how to build continuous-payoff markets that stay liquid and produce clean price discovery across a full range instead of a binary threshold

> collateral engines for PM options: how to margin options on an underlying bounded between 0 and 1 that can gap 30% on a headline. get this right and there is a chance that professional market-making capital finally enters the space

> perps x prediction markets convergence: how to merge continuous leveraged exposure with outcome-based settlement

perps never expire but carry no truth
prediction markets resolve but cap at $1

the instrument that combines path-independence with real leverage doesn't fully exist

> prediction market indices: how to aggregate many markets into tradeable composite instruments

> belief decomposition: separating a market price into genuine conviction versus reflexive positioning versus manipulation

> resolution infrastructure: everyone builds the trading layer, almost nobody builds the truth layer

manipulation-resistant, low-latency, dispute-tolerant resolution is the real moat and it's underbuilt

> underwriting models for binary risk: how to lend, insure, and build yield on outcomes that go to zero overnight

my thought is that it probably requires portfolio-level diversification across hundreds of uncorrelated markets plus PM-specific actuarial models that don't exist yet

> a Black-Scholes for prediction markets: the implied-volatility framework that lets you price, hedge, and transfer belief risk with a shared language

we're pre-1973 on this and the academic work is just starting (an interesting paper by @DaedalusRsch on this)

the common thread is that the trading layer is mostly solved but the financial infrastructure on top of it is wide open

[good @thenarrator]

https://t.co/MEGi9NkuSv

[Barry @barryibs]

@Yagobiverse @kairosdotwin 🔥🔥🔥

[Barry @barryibs]

@damianplayer X

[Barry @barryibs]

@jvnior Copy

[Barry @barryibs]

@mansa_liman Excellent book 🔥

[Barry @barryibs]

@Moucky_D On va se reprendre next year chef 🫡

[Barry @barryibs]

@TheJobfather__ HBD 🙏🏾More life

[Bel Trew @Beltrew]

A UN official just told me civilians in Gaza are reduced to drinking sea water because clean water has run out. Body bags are running out, fuel for hospital generators powering ventilators will run out in hours. Food supply low. The bombing is intensifying. There aren't words.

[Barry @barryibs]

They plan. And Allah plans. And Allah is the best of planners. ~ Qur'an 8:30

[Barry @barryibs]

@muftimenk Ameen

[Kim Dotcom @KimDotcom]

Washington just dumped Ukraine into the waste-bin of US victim nations: “As long at it takes” is now “as long as we can” and “we are coming to the end of the rope in financing Ukraine.”

Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians died for empty US promises of “unwavering support”.

Ukraine has been wrecked and won’t recover for decades to come. Zelenskyy is finished and Russia has won. The United States, its western partners and NATO - defeated.

Why would any nation trust security guarantees by the US Govt ever again? The people of Taiwan must watch very carefully who they are counting on for their security.

What does this tell us? It’s an admission of US bankruptcy. The US Govt can no longer afford a prolonged war in Ukraine or anywhere in the world. Lies and deception (propaganda) are not enough to stay afloat. Corrupt ‘journalists’ don’t win wars or pay trillions in deficits and liabilities.

The Iranian intervention in Israel via Hamas accelerated the inevitable outcome for Ukraine. A threat of war in the Middle East with all of its dire consequences for the oil price and the fragile US economy was all it took.

The world is witnessing the rapid end of US dominance and the rise of the multipolar order. But never underestimate the arrogance of the US Govt. They may end civilization in a nuclear war rather than accept responsibility for destroying the United States from within - with blatant corruption.

https://t.co/hK4DMQr8yD

[Barry @barryibs]

@atgoodm 🙌🙌🙌

[Barry @barryibs]

@atgoodm @augmntd 🔥🔥🔥

[Great House @xspotsdamark]

After Guinea declared independence from France in 1958, the French were so furious , they set out to undo everything they had done in Guinea. They dismantled railway tracks, dug up water & sewage plumbing, destroyed the electrical grid, burned down schools & government buildings

[Barry @barryibs]

@Ob6868 La belle vie 🤝

[Barry @barryibs]

@mansa_liman Une real ✊🏾

[Barry @barryibs]

@mansa_liman 🤝

[Barry @barryibs]

@mansa_liman 😂😂😂