Jon Lourie

Head oracle @polyfactual. Building @factsdottrade. Ex @CoreumOfficial

[Jon Lourie @basedlourie]

It's crazy that I got to interview this guy, honestly one the best convos I had on prediction markets. Was a real privilege

[60 Minutes @60Minutes]

One of Polymarket’s biggest bettors has wagered more than $400 million so far. He says he made nearly $3 million last year on the platform. https://t.co/bVyZZhNPse

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

NUCLEAR DEAL within 2 months?

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31 - 38% on Polymarket

The June 30 market is just 26%

On June 4, Witkoff and Kushner held a closed-door meeting in Oak Ridge with a team of about 100 nuclear experts (Oak Ridge + Y-12), according to multiple reports

The goal: technical prep for the deal if they sign a framework MOU

Through Oman and Pakistan negotiators had almost finalized the main terms of a 60-day MOU last week:

＞extension of the ceasefire
＞opening of the Strait of Hormuz
＞sale of Iranian oil
＞launch of full nuclear negotiations

But talks are now in deadlock

Two narrow disagreements remain:

＞down-blending of uranium (Trump demands 60 days, Iran wants 90)
＞when to unfreeze billions in frozen funds

Iranian advisor Mohsen Rezaei told CNN on June 5: "Talks are at a deadlock. The ball is in Trump's court"

The same day, Trump said in Wisconsin the Iran issue would be resolved "one way or the other… either with a piece of paper or a more difficult way."

A response to the latest amendments in the next 7-10 days could sharply move the odds

The main question - in which direction?

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

Just wrapped a great conversation with @KairosTradeX.

First-ever look at the platform, insanely fast execution, and a preview of what's coming next.

Bonus surprise for Polyfactual viewers at the end..

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

LIVE with @KairosTradeX, Building the Next Generation of PM Infra https://t.co/qXGlW4G8Oa

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

Our next stream we'll be joined by @KairosTradeX. Thursday, 5pm EST on X.

Kairos is building some of the best trading infra in the space.

Backed by big names like @a16zcrypto and @GenevaTrading

With Kairos public launch is fast approaching. You won't want to miss this!

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

https://t.co/SIz37VJFmX

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

What seemed highly unlikely just yesterday is now official reality

MicroStrategy confirmed in its SEC 8-K filing the sale of 32 BTC - its first sale since Dec 2022

Holdings are now down to 843,706 BTC. That's only 0.0038% of its stack

Polymarket "MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026" has already resolved as NO twice - and both times it was instantly disputed

Yes is currently trading at 69.4¢

According to the resolution criteria, there is a classic dilemma:

＞Sale + on-chain - all happened in May
＞8-K filing + credible media consensus - only on June 1
＞The 8-K was filed under Strategy Inc (the company's current legal name), not MicroStrategy

What matters more: the actual blockchain transaction… or when the 8-K was officially filed?

Reminder: On the May 5 earnings call, Saylor said they "will probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend just to inoculate the market"

Today we're seeing exactly that. No capitulation. Controlled treasury management.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

Nvidia and Microsoft said "A new era of PC"

Will this give $NVDA a boost in June?

Axios reports: next week Microsoft and Nvidia are set to debut the first Windows OS computers utilizing Nvidia chips as the main processor

Fresh Polymarket odds:

↑$216: 77%
↑$224: 62%
↑$240: 35%

Rumors have circulated for months, but the official Computex debut with Jensen on stage is a fresh catalyst. Short-term hype is possible

However, PC business remains tiny for Nvidia compared to its data center dominance

Facts most people are sleeping on:

＞Nvidia returning to PC CPU/SoC after failed Windows RT in 2012

＞Leaked N1X specs: 20-core Arm + Blackwell architecture graphics on 3nm TSMC

＞Microsoft's second serious shot at AI PC after underwhelming first Copilot+

＞Real step toward powerful local AI inside the laptop

What do you think? ↑$240 on hype or stuck around 210-220?

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

https://t.co/ppmkxsKxK2

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

Very excited to have FactsAI integrated with @Bubblegumdotfun

Bubblegum is building an innovative prediction market where each event contract becomes a tradable coin.

Easily one of the strongest teams in the @colosseum Frontier Hackathon.

FactsAI powers the intelligence layer behind every token market created.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

First protocol to offer staking on Prediction Markets is @robinmarketsxyz

They already have 118K in TVL offering 6% to 8% APY on Polymarket positions.

@0xFudrick breaks down exactly how the staking model works and why Robin Markets’ approach could open an entirely new layer for PM infrastructure.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

Is Saylor Ready to SELL BTC in 2026?

On May 5, Saylor and CEO Phong Le officially ended the "never sell" era

The company has moved to active treasury management, with Bitcoin per share as the new main KPI through 2033

On May 23 in his interview with Natalie Brunell, he said:
"Not unlikely we'll sell some Bitcoin before end of the year"

But Polymarket traders remain skeptical about June (only 38%)

Makes sense - Strategy is still a net buyer: 843,738 BTC (+24k last week, BTC Yield YTD 12.6%)

Saylor quickly added: even if they sell a small amount (likely for STRC dividends), they'll buy back 10-20× more ("math over ideology")

The market is pricing in the first sale in the second half of 2026, not in the next 5 weeks

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

https://t.co/bBpKx8YS8m

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

How @robinmarketsxyz raised their first $400K from top crypto VCs.

@0xFudrick shares:

> What actually works
> What doesn't
> Valuable takeaways

This is gold for prediction market builders and founders.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

TODAY: We’re going LIVE on X with @lex_node, founder of @MetaLeX_Labs

We'll be discussing ACE, a new vehicle in the ICM space that gives token holders exposure to real equity in the company behind the token.

Join us at 4:30 PM ET.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

Hyped for this launch!

The @KairosTradeX terminal is, by far, the most performant trading technology in the space.

Polyfactual will be contributing as an information layer through FactsAI on top of their protocol.

Big things are cooking. Stay tuned!

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

1 week into the ACE round:
36 million $POLYFACTS raised from our holders across public and private contributions.

> Almost 4% of total supply clawed back
> Treasury-owned supply is now approaching 7%

For the first time, Polyfacts holders were able to acquire real equity in the company.

Having our earliest supporters actually aligned with the project’s growth feels incredible.

This is real ICM.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

Polymarket figured out something powerful:

News + engagement + financial incentives = one of the most addictive information primitives on the internet.

Great conversation with the founders of @PolyFundr.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

Most new Polymarket traders lose money before they ever develop a real edge.

The founders of @PolyFundr designed their evaluation process to help traders improve, not just rank them.

So far, they’ve seen newer traders improve quickly in a rules-based, risk-free environment.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

“Prediction markets are just casinos”

Is probably one of the biggest misconceptions right now.

@BagCalls explains why the real edge on Polymarket is fundamentally different from gambling.

From our talk with @FundingPredicts

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

The Strait of Hormuz traffic market may be dramatically underpricing “NO” here.

Even if a ceasefire is announced, this market requires the 7-day average of 60 transit calls.

Mines and insurance problems could keep traffic far below “normal” for weeks.

From our conversation with @prophet_notes