Based Load

Energy. Stocks. Politics. Not investment advice. Not even coherent.

[Based Load @basedxload]

Thoughts on $Rok.v $ROKRF

[Based Load @basedxload]

https://t.co/8I30r3y42X

[Based Load @basedxload]

@XEnjoyer25480 @MattWalshBlog “AI slop” is a reflection of the operator, not the technology.

[Based Load @basedxload]

@FreeArchivist @MattWalshBlog 10-4, hope you enjoy the future. I will 👍

[Based Load @basedxload]

Upload the guitar riff, decide the genre, do I want a raw mix or a clean, sterile studio? how about drums? Loud and punchy? Maybe splashy with some reverb? Half time swing, or standard rhythm? Bass distorted or clean? Do I want a bridge, or just verse chrous? Any other instruments? That's not even 1% of it.

[Based Load @basedxload]

@XEnjoyer25480 @MattWalshBlog Not true. I use Suno, upload guitar riffs and it programs drums/arranges the song. Works wayyyyy better than prompting. But even prompting is a human action. Also, a human has to decide if it's good or not. Rick Rubin is what a great musician looks like in the future. Not a robot

[Based Load @basedxload]

@MattWalshBlog All your examples are just people using a tool to make art. Sometimes it's a paintbrush or an acoustic guitar, other times it's a computer or a 2 turntables. Boomers used to say rap isn't music because they don't play instruments. Now it's AI isn't music.

[Based Load @basedxload]

@CostaKapo THIS. "AI slop" is a reflection of the operator, not the technology. Great storyteller + AI = Incredible content.

[Based Load @basedxload]

@CostaKapo Everyone focuses on vanity metrics. But there are tons forgettable videos with millions of views and likes that deliver zero roi. If you can make that single, true emotional connection, thats how you win. Congrats on the acquisition, car looks sick, keep killimg it 🤘

[Based Load @basedxload]

Picked up $OBE on Friday when it dipped and added $RUBLF $RBY.TO first thing this morning on news they sold their East Edison nat gas assets. All out of cash, feels like physics is about to defeat narrative once again 🤞🛢️🚀

[Based Load @basedxload]

Current rankings and updated portfolio. New position in Arrow Exploration $AXL.V $CSTPF Really like the Columbia/LATAM thesis. Hopefully done trading for the foreseeable future.

[Gavin (humanist/acc) @GavMcCracken]

EIA data

Crude -4.5mil
Gasoline -1.2mil
Distillates +800k (fake news imo)
SPR - 3.1mil

Total crude draw -7.1mil THERE IS A SUPER GLUT THOUGH RIGHT JAVIER BLAS

[Based Load @basedxload]

Not advice, just opinion but: I see them exit 2026 at 4k boepd, 2027 at 6k which would give them a 50%+ fcf yield at today’s oil/stock price. If that happens (big if) I’d expect the stock to trade $1+ USD.

More importantly theyve got a big cash pile, unhedged/growing, below book value and (IMO, again) great mgmt. If it tripled today, I’d probably sell. If it tripled Dec 31 at 6k boepd and $90+ WTI, I’d hold. Again just opinion.

[Based Load @basedxload]

Portfolio update:

$ROK.V $ROKRF - Continues to grind higher, lock up ends on half the EMP shares mid month, so expect to hear something there. Still my highest conviction position by a mile.

$PXT.TO $PARXF - New position. Unhedged, 20% fcf yield at $75 WTI, below book value, 5% div, new pro oil president sworn in 3 weeks ago. I've wanted a little diversification from Canada, and IMO this is it.

$SOIL.TO $OILSF - +160% over the past 12 months and still sub 3x AFF. Hard to find a more accretive mgmt team.

$RBY.TO $RUBLF - Still love everything about it. Feel like you get insane asset + management quality for the price. I just want to be a little (lot) more aggressive than usual the next 3-6 months. So currently occupying a smaller position.

$HME $HMENF - Sold the bottom last week. I can see how the fire could be a net positive between preserving reserves and insurance. But right now I want more torque, so rotated to Parex. My hope is we get an oil price spike before HME is back online and I can rotate back in. Still a huge fan of the company and confident the share price will be much higher in 12 months.

$TLT - I like the $100 leaps here. Could absolutely see a rate spike in the short term (and will add if it happens). But can't really wrap my head around how $40T debt at 5%+ works for another 2+ years.

Not advice. DYODD.

[Based Load @basedxload]

@JamesHMackay First week of July I spent at least 8 hours a day berating Claude. What a year.

[Based Load @basedxload]

@GavMcCracken @sloukas24 Pre paying SBC was brilliant. Big fan.

[Based Load @basedxload]

@LandryLuc4 $SOIL.TO +160% and still trading < 3 x aff at $80-85 oil. Great per share value growth.

[Based Load @basedxload]

@ctindale @great_martis Payback timeline on most data center construction makes no sense. 5-8 years to breakeven, then spend 50-60% of your original investment refreshing your ancient NVDA gpu’s. 2026 Data Center cancellations are through the roof. I wish him luck hitting that guideance.

[Based Load @basedxload]

@rockcreekfreak @JavierBlas so good🤣🤣🤣

[Based Load @basedxload]

Updated/rebalanced O&G portfolio post Q2 earnings with some thoughts on each position.

35% Rok Resources
25% Saturn Oil and Gas
25% Hemisphere Energy
10% Rubellite Energy

$Rok.v $ROKRF - Truly in a league of its own. Just reported a 35%+ FF yield while aggressively growing production. Net cash (~50% if you include Blue Alaska + EMP shares), active NCIB, wells that pay back in 4-6 months, great mgmt, etc. Plan to exit 4k barrels in 2026 and could exit 6,000 in 2027. If prices stay elevated they could earn their current market cap in FFO next year.

$SOIL.to $OILSF - Great history of per share value growth and executing a high debt model. My base case is financial repression (sustained negative real interest rates), so while I normally steer clear of leverage, I actually view it as a positive for Saturn.

$HME.v $HMENF - My new addition. ~3500 boepd unhedged low decline heavy oil, net cash, NCIB + 9% div, and a couple weeks/months from results on 2 new plays at their Mardsen property: The Colony Horizontals + the Sparky Polymer Pilot. Felt like mgmt tone was optimistic in the latest MD&A.

$RBY.TO $RUBLF - Up nearly 40%, I decided to take profits and roll to Hemisphere. Still love the company, but at current prices with the hedgebook it feels like a 2027 story, where Hemisphere feels more immediate. Really like owning both and will likely trade between the two based on relative valuation.

$CHRD - My favorite US O&G. Love what they're doing with directional drilling. But I owned it as a hedge on US/Canada geopolitical tension. With the pause on tariffs, talk of Keystone XL, etc. I feel better owning 100% Canadian production and IMO the value is far better north of the border.

Not advice. DYODD. Subject to change without notice.

[Based Load @basedxload]

@GavMcCracken Funds flow at 35%+ yield. Just proves the average trader can't do math. Let the clowns sell.