W0069

I am just shilling here 🚀 VIP Relationship Manager | Partnerships | Web3 at Bybit | Advisor at Moledao | Founding member of Trust Wallet | +5 years in the WEB3

[filbfilb @filbfilb]

Im not going to try to dress it up any way other than how it looks.

[wishful_cynic @EvgenyGaevoy]

Continue to be pretty skeptical about “somebody blew up” rumors or at least skeptical about mid/long term impact of it. Maybe somebody blew up but there are simply no spillover effects for us to care

When 3AC blew up post terra everyone knew fairly soon because it spread via DMs. Sure it was shock and disbelief first but it lasted maybe 2-3 days all in all

FTX took a bit longer but also became very obvious when it was revealed they were in talks with Binance (you don’t talk about bailouts/investments unless there is something very wrong)

I don’t see anything like this currently (or post 10/10 for what it matters). All “rumors” are originating from no name accounts, I haven’t had anyone credible confirming any of them

In order to blow up, you need to have a decently leveraged position. Most of leverage in previous cycle has been facilitated by uncollat lending platforms like genesis, Celsius, which was very much not transparent to rest of industry and (obviously) ended up pretty badly for most of them. Most of the leverage in this cycle is coming from perps. A lot more orderly compared to uncollat setup and also exchanges learned a thing or two about managing margin. Only exchange that ended up losing on 3AC last cycle was deribit and that was because they extended a special line of credit to them. I don’t think any exchanges have risk appetite for these arrangements since then

That’s also why I’m very skeptical about rumors of exchanges blowing up. I don’t think anyone is running FTX playbook of investing user deposits into illiquid assets anymore. So we are left with either hacks (which we as industry became pretty good in detecting even if exchanges are trying to hide them) or exchanges losing on customers blowing up on perps (which exchanges became pretty good at avoiding especially thanks to the ADL)

Also while we are on the topic, somebody denying they are bankrupt is a pretty risky thing if they actually are (with bonus points for prosecution if they are based in Europe/US/UK/Singapore). Not to say people can’t/won’t lie about these things, but there are some real consequences here, it’s far from a free bluff opportunity

[Ericonomic @ericonomic]

Footage of a $700M+ liquidation.
Starring: Garrett Bullish.

This is what you see right before committing harakiri.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

TOXIC FLOW BLACKLIST (Risk Warning) 💎

Ticker: $USD1 / $WLFI (World Liberty Financial)
Direction: Zero Exposure / Avoid

🤫 ALPHA LEAK: Internal research links USD1 liquidity directly to DWF Labs, known for aggressive liquidity engineering. The $25M injection and "waves" appear to be wash-trading.

📊 Fundamental & Data:

● Evidence: The BTC/USD1 flash crash to $24k proves thin order books and absence of robust market makers.
● Risk: USD1 peg is vulnerable to a death spiral if DWF withdraws support.
● Compliance: Political ties to the Trump family invite enhanced SEC/regulatory scrutiny.

🎯 Execution Plan:

● Action: DO NOT HOLD USD1 inventory. Treat as a high-volatility de-peg candidate.
● Alternative: Migrate to USDC to align with the 2026 Arc narrative.

Not financial advice. Use at your own risk.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

THE BTC GAMMA PIN(Tactical Alpha) 💎

Ticker: $BTC (Bitcoin)
Direction:Tactical Short / Mean Reversion

🤫 ALPHA LEAK: Massive Open Interest concentration between $85k and $90k strikes ahead of Dec 26 expiry is pinning prices. We are trading against dealer delta-hedging flow.

📊 Fundamental & Data:

● The Wall: Dealers short calls must sell futures at $90,000 to hedge, creating a natural ceiling.
● Data: Long liquidation cluster sits at $83,800-$84,200.
● Status: Market is lethargic but underlying currents are aggressive.

🎯 Execution Plan:

● Entry: Scale in short at $89,200 - $89,800.
● Target: $86,800 (front-run the put wall).
● Risk: Sustained 4-hour close above $90,500 signals a gamma squeeze.

Not financial advice. Use at your own risk.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

INSTITUTIONAL DECOUPLING (High Conviction) 💎

Ticker: $SOL (Solana)
Direction: Long / Accumulate

🤫 ALPHA LEAK: While BTC and ETH suffer from capital flight, Solana is experiencing a statistically significant divergence in institutional flows.

📊 Fundamental & Data:

● Data: Solana investment products saw $33.6M net inflows in the same week BTC ETFs bled nearly half a billion.
● Trigger: Total cumulative net inflows for SOL products hit ~$750M. Creation of GSOL/BSOL units indicates persistent demand from wealth managers.
● Ecosystem: Launch of high-profile assets like $PENGU on Solana reinforces its infrastructure dominance.

🎯 Execution Plan:

● Entry: $180 - $190 (Institutional cost basis).
● Target: Re-test of ATHs in Q1 2026.
● Risk: Macro contagion if BTC breaks $80k or consecutive SOL ETF outflows.

Not financial advice. Use at your own risk.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

SHORTING THE ZOMBIE VCs (Arbitrage) 💎

Ticker: $XPL (Plasma)
Direction: SHORT

🤫 ALPHA LEAK: Massive valuation disconnect: Plasma trades at a $4.5B pre-market FDV vs. a $500M VC round valuation. This is low-float manipulation primed for a crash.

📊 Fundamental & Data:

● Data: Market is repricing "Ghost Chains." Fuel crashed from $1B VC valuation to $11M market cap.
● Thesis: Transition to the "Show Me The Revenue" era. Assets with high VC overhang and no traction trend toward zero.

🎯 Execution Plan:

● Entry: Short XPL on Hyperliquid/Binance Pre-Market.
● Target: Price discovery aligning with private round valuations.
● Risk: Excessive funding rates.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

THE HAYES ROTATION (Alpha) 💎

Tickers: $ENA, $PENDLE, $ETHFI
Direction: LONG / Overweight DeFi Yield

🤫 ALPHA LEAK: Arthur Hayes is rotating out of Ethereum, selling 1,871 ETH (∼$5.53M) to buy high-beta DeFi. We copy-trade the smart money flow.

📊 Fundamental & Data:

● Data: On-chain verification of 1.22M ENA, 137k PENDLE, and 132k ETHFI purchases.
● Thesis: Improving fiat liquidity favors yield. ENA and PENDLE are the purest betas for the "Internet Bond" narrative.
● Objective: +30% outperformance vs. ETH over 4 weeks.

🎯 Execution Plan:

● Entry: Current market levels.
● Action: Reduce passive ETH exposure; overweight DeFi protocols.
● Risk: ETH dominance recovery above $3,200.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

GOVERNANCE CIVIL WAR (Hedge) 💎

Ticker: $AAVE
Direction: TACTICAL SHORT

🤫 ALPHA LEAK: Founder Stani Kulechov executed a $10M market buy to sway a contentious vote. This is "Vote Buying," not organic demand. The flow is "Fake Strength."

📊 Fundamental & Data:

● Data: Conflict over branding assets and fee redirection between Aave Labs and the DAO.
● Trigger: Snapshot Vote concludes Dec 26.
● Signal: The "Governance Premium" is at risk regardless of outcome due to fractured unity.

🎯 Execution Plan:

● Entry: $AAVE Spot > $180 (on speculative run-up).
● Target: Retest of previous resistance-turned-support.
● Risk: Official Fee Switch activation with 100% revenue to DAO.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

EVENT-DRIVEN (High Conviction) 💎

Ticker: $LIT (Lighter)
Direction: Aggressive LONG

🤫 ALPHA LEAK: On-chain heuristics confirm massive supply consolidation ahead of TGE. The 25% supply transfer (250M tokens) is the "smoking gun" for the listing event.

📊 Fundamental & Data:

● Data: 250M LIT transfer on Dec 20 to wallet (0x98e...b5f); subsequent dispersal to 20 MM/Exchange wallets.
● Trigger: TGE Date expected circa Dec 29, 2025. Validated by Binance Pre-Market and Coinbase Listing Roadmap.
● Valuation: Pre-market FDV at $3.3B - $3.5B; catching up to sector leaders implies a $4.5B target.

🎯 Execution Plan:

● Entry: Market (Current Pre-market price).
● Target: Scale out 50% on Dec 28 (Pre-TGE). Remainder to $4.5B FDV target.
● Risk: TGE delay beyond Jan 1, 2026.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

CONTRARIAN PAIR TRADE (after 26th December) 💎

Ticker: ETH / BTC
Direction: Long ETH / Short BTC (Delta Neutral)

🤫 ALPHA LEAK: Market sentiment on ETH is at peak bearishness while "Smart Money" aggressively accumulates. Positioning from BlackRock ($91M) and BitMine (3.2% supply) indicates a rotation once year-end tax harvesting concludes.

📊 Fundamentals & Data:

● Ratio: ETH/BTC ratio is currently at multi-year lows (~0.034).
● Logic: Expect capital mean reversion in January ("The January Effect").

🎯 Execution Plan:

● Entry: Long ETH perp @ $2,980 / Short BTC perp @ $88,000 (equal notional).
● Target: Ratio level 0.045.
● Stop: Daily close of the ratio below 0.030.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

INFRASTRUCTURE ARBITRAGE (Alpha)💎

Ticker: LIT (Lighter) vs HYPE (Hyperliquid)
Direction: Buy LIT / Hedge via HYPE

🤫 ALPHA LEAK: Massive valuation mispricing. LIT’s monthly volume ($252B) already exceeds HYPE ($221B), yet LIT trades at a 3x discount on the pre-market. Backing from Robinhood and Founders Fund ensures Tier-1 status.

📊 Fundamentals & Data:

● Valuation: LIT FDV ~$3.4B on pre-market vs HYPE FDV ~$10B+.
● Trigger: The recent wash-trading purge is a clear precursor to the Token Generation Event (TGE) and major exchange listings.

🎯 Execution Plan:

● Entry: Pre-market perps or volume farming while FDV < $4B.
● Target: Valuation parity with Hyperliquid (approx. $10B FDV).
● Risk: Lower liquidity before the official token launch.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

TACTICAL LONG (High Conviction) 💎

Ticker: BTC (Bitcoin)
Direction: Long

🤫 ALPHA LEAK: "Santa Rally" Gamma Squeeze setup. People are short gamma heading into the Dec 26 expiry. A price push above $90,500 will force people to buy spot BTC to hedge, creating a feedback loop to $95,000.

📊 Fundamentals & Data:

● Liquidity: Massive short clusters located between $90,500 and $95,000.
● Magnet: The $95,000 liquidity wall acts as the primary price magnet.

🎯 Execution Plan:

● Entry: $88,200 – $89,500 (current consolidation zone).
● Target: $94,800 (front-running the main liquidity wall).
● Stop: Daily close below $85,000.
● Leverage: 5x–10x recommended.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

KEY INSTITUTIONAL LEVELS 💎

Instruments: SPX, Gold, EURUSD

🤫 ALPHA LEAK: The "JPM Collar" level at 6063.15 is the most critical pivot for the S&P 500.

📊 Technical Data:

● S&P 500 (SPX): Break below 6063.15 triggers a Gamma Squeeze. Upper target 7000.
● Gold: Major support at $4,340. Trend remains "Buy the Dip" as long as we are above.
● EURUSD: Resistance at 1.1800 is the "ideal short point." Break below 1.1600 targets parity.
● EURSEK: Put Option, Strike 10.87, Exp 02 JAN 26.

🎯 Execution Plan:

● Monitor: RMOP liquidity levels and TGA balance for confirmation of Paradigm D.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

RETAIL TRAP: SILVER (Avoid/Short) 💎

Ticker: SLV (Silver)
Direction: Avoid / Short

🤫 ALPHA LEAK: Labeled one of the "riskiest assets for 2026." Parabolic growth in silver often ends in a total collapse.

📊 Fundamentals & Data:

● Logic: High beta relative to gold, but prone to "bubble" bursts.

🎯 Execution Plan:

● Action: Avoid long positions; look for short triggers if parabolic trend breaks.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

SAYLOR’S BLUFF (Pair Trade) 💎

Tickers:Long BTC / Short STRD (MSTR)
Direction: Capital Structure Arbitrage

🤫 ALPHA LEAK: This trade exploits the lack of protection in "Junior Equity" (MicroStrategy) compared to the underlying asset (Bitcoin).

📊 Fundamentals & Data:

● Score: 8.5/10.
● Trigger: Narrowing of the MSTR premium relative to BTC holdings.

🎯 Execution Plan:

● Action: Long the underlying Bitcoin, Short the over-leveraged proxy (MSTR).
● Logic: Arbitrage the valuation gap.
● Risk: Continued irrational premium expansion.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

THE JOBLESS RECOVERY AND THE "BULLSHIT JOBS" COLLAPSE 🗞️

Topic: Structural dysfunction in the US Labor Market.

🗣️ Context: Unemployment has risen to 4.6% as of November 2025, but job vacancies remain high.

🔍 Facts and Details:

● The Beveridge Curve has shifted "down and right," signaling lower labor market efficiency.
● High vacancies are driven by immigration, but unemployment is rising due to skill mismatches.
● AI (LLMs) is allowing corporations to cut "bullshit jobs" (middle management, admin) while maintaining revenue.

🧠 Smart Money View: The Fed sees rising unemployment and panics into stimulus (Paradigm D), even as corporate margins expand due to AI efficiency. This creates a "Melt-up" scenario.

⚖️ Verdict: Buy companies that are firing staff to replace them with AI; in this paradigm, layoffs are a sign of efficiency, not weakness.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

2025-2026 CRITICAL EVENTS CALENDAR 🗞️

Topic: Key dates for portfolio management.

🗣️ Context: Mark these dates to anticipate high volatility and thesis confirmation.

🔍 Facts and Details:

● Dec 18, 2025: Core Inflation and Jobless Claims.
● Jan 9, 2026: US Employment Report (Thesis: Jobless Recovery).
● Jan 28, 2026: FOMC Decision — markets expect rate cuts and RMOP confirmation.
● Jan 2026 (Day 6-10): BCOM Index Rebalancing. Forced Cocoa buying of ~$370M.
● Nov 2026: US Midterm Elections.

🧠 Smart Money View: These events are the binary triggers for the macro narratives discussed in the 2026 Strategy Report.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

RMOP: THE FED’S NEW "SECRET" PRINTING PRESS 🗞️

Topic: The official start of debt monetization.

🗣️ Context: In December 2025, the Fed pivoted to Reserve Management Operation Purchases (RMOP). While labeled "technical," it is a formal signal of Paradigm D.

🔍 Facts and Details:

● The move is designed to prevent a collapse in the Repo and Treasury markets.
● Projections suggest a reduction in the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) by March 2026.
● Yield Curve Control (YCC) is anticipated by 2029.

🧠 Smart Money View: The Fed is sacrificing the inflation fight (or redefining its targets) to save Wall Street at the expense of Main Street. Markets will rise on this liquidity regardless of what it is called.

⚖️ Verdict: Fiscal dominance has officially stripped the Fed of its independence.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

🗺 Strategic Roadmap: Q1 2026
The Desk's Action Plan.

1. NOW (Pre-Dec 20): Long COIN + RWA (Edelcoin) into the event. Hedge: Short SOL against BoJ volatility.
2. JAN-FEB: Accumulate DeFi Blue Chips (AAVE, COMP, MKR) ahead of final Basel guidelines.
3. Q2 2026: Position for China Liquidity.

⚡️ Bottom Line: The market is mispricing the speed of banking integration. The pipes are being laid right now

Not financial advice. Use at your own risk.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

🏦 Global Banks Get the "Green Light" on Crypto
This is a Game Changer that many missed.

🔍 Fact: The Basel Committee (BCBS) is revising risk standards by January 2026.
Key shift: Moving regulated stablecoins ("Group 1b") from a prohibitive 1250% risk weight to a transactional level (20-100%).

🧠 Smart Money View: Previously, banks had to hold $1 of capital for every $1 of crypto. This killed ROE. The new rules open the floodgates: G-SIB banks can now use blockchains for settlement and hunt for yield (NIM) on stablecoin reserves.

📉 Implication: Liquidity will flow into "white" assets. This isn't just a pump; it's integration.

🎯 Takeaway:Institutions are entering via stablecoins. Watch the infrastructure.

Not financial advice. Use at your own risk.

[W0069 @bashonit1]

🩸Trade Setup: Short Solana ($SOL)
Liquidity Rotation: Technical & Fundamental Short.

📉 Techs: Monthly timeframe shows a "Double Top" / "Horrendous" chart. Relative weakness vs BTC (-5% in 24h).

🧠 Smart Money Flow: Basel changes (see Free Channel) favor EVM-compatible chains. Institutional DeFi lives on Ethereum/Base. Capital is starting to rotate out of the SPL ecosystem back to the EVM stack.

🎯 Execution:

● Pair: Short SOL/BTC.
● Target: Return to 0.0035 BTC level.

Not financial advice. Use at your own risk.