If you fell asleep on the eve of the pandemic and woke up today and checked the latest economic stats, you would infer a bunch of good things had happened while you were snoozing.
Said this way, our recovery is remarkable given the reality that covid shut down the global economy
This morning @JDVance described my analysis of Trump's washing machine tariffs as dishonest, suggesting that one should look at these data two years later. Do you I need to tell you how this story ends?
Today's report card on the economy was no surprise: there's little growth, & most of the pain is being felt by families
But I'm surprised that some are still talking about recession risks
That risk was always low, given both rapid population growth & the RBA's careful approach
It's even lower now, as big tax cuts & subsidies are helping growth - almost 2% of national income just got handed back to the punters
That's why growth will lift from here (though partly at the expense of ongoing inflation risks)
PS, I've been asked my view of recession risks for a few stories in the past year. My answers don't usually end up in the paper, as "very low risk of recession" isn't that newsworthy 😊
Imagine calling this as a technical foul in the fourth quarter of a state semifinal where the dunking player is changing the momentum for his team.
AWFUL CALL