Vikas Bajaj

Currency/Commodity at Kotak Securities: Views here are personal.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

This is an interesting development for Indian bond market.

Hope this tokenisation also extends to other asset classes like equities and commodities and leads to 24/7 trading eventually.

[Ira Dugal @dugalira]

REC will issue India's first tokenised bond next month, on the sidelines of the global fintech forum in Mumbai.

Bond tokenisation is being seen as a way to speed up settlements of bond transactions.

Interesting move. Reuters Khushi Malhotra reports.

https://t.co/EBcjvoy5e9

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

@vivbajaj Which book?

[CME Group @CMEGroup]

Since launching 24/7 trading on May 29, our clients have traded $456M+ in notional volume across 63K+ contracts during weekend sessions alone.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

Rupee has steadily appreciated since last tweet. Closed today at around 94.56.

There is still decent room available for rupee to strengthen towards 93 levels.

With oil drifting lower, along with multiple measures announced by RBI and govt, pace to pick up.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

Rupee looks very attractive to buy.

Two reasons:

1) Crude prices drifting lower, or at least not making new high on weekly basis

2) RBI and govt joint measures to attract dollar through FCNR, ECB and scrapping tax on govt bonds.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

Rupee looks very attractive to buy.

Two reasons:

1) Crude prices drifting lower, or at least not making new high on weekly basis

2) RBI and govt joint measures to attract dollar through FCNR, ECB and scrapping tax on govt bonds.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

It cannot bring global bond yields lower, nor can get energy security in short term.

So, focus on what can make things little easier - capital flows.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

In nutshell, rupee main problem.

India is stuck between high energy and global yield amid capital outflows.

It has no control on higher energy and yield. But, it has some control on capital flows.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

@GripFangWolf Hi…your observation is right to some extent. It also depends upon which contract you are looking at - 1 kg or 100 g, or any other variant. We can discuss at length on it, if you can DM your number.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

This is definitely not going to be liked by bond and rupee watchers. Of Friday, rupee breached 96 levels but pulled back. So far, it is all about oil and geo-political risk premium that are weighing on rupee. What about dollar index?

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

WTI price ($94.55) on Hyperliquid is still lower than where it closed on Friday at $96.57.

This shows market is not panicking as many would have believed after the announcement of negotiation break-down.

[Ashish Nanda @Ashish1Nanda]

If you evaluate revenue per basis point of market share across all discount brokers, the value proposition becomes very clear and, frankly, quite striking.

Most investors and traders would be surprised at how much they stand to save with Kotak Neo.

•50% lower brokerage in F&O and Intraday
•Zero brokerage on APIs — a full 100% discount
•Under 30 segment: 50–80% lower blended brokerage
•30–50% lower interest spreads (often even more in practice)
•~50% lower pricing in Commodity and Currency
•No minimum brokerage floor (₹5, etc.), unlike many peers
•Multiple other areas where we continue to be structurally lower, including zero interest on Intraday.

Now here’s the key point:

The segments where we are relatively higher AMC and Delivery charges etc are not the primary revenue drivers for most discount brokers.
•For Kotak Neo: <25% of revenue
•For most peers: ~10–15% (or even lower)

Which means the core segments where customers actually incur most costs are significantly discounted with us.

And on the product side:

Our app is continuously improving. It may not claim to be perfect yet, but it is already among the better platforms in the market and getting stronger by the day.

So it’s worth going back to the opening point:

When you look at revenue per basis point of volume market share, the savings with Kotak Neo aren’t just meaningful, they’re hard to ignore.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

Oil prices are still suggesting that things are not going to be as bad…at 5:30 am IST.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

Today, market participants will watch how bonds react to first auction of the new FY, and rupee reacts to new measure by RBI, announced yesterday.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

Today FX and bond market will open after literally 4 days, including weekends.

It will be interesting to see how these two markets react today.

10Y bond touched 7% on Friday and rupee made a new low despite capping bank NOP limit.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

Trump address:

If no deal, US will destroy Iran’s energy and electricity infra.

Not a good sign for risk assets. Time to focus more on risk management than anything else.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

Ideally, it should lead to rupee appreciation but looking at price action last Friday, after bank NOP limit was capped at $100 mio, difficult to guess. But one thing is sure, FX market liquidity will get severely impacted.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

After capping bank trading limits to $100 mio, now RBI targets corporates, barring banks from offering NDF to residents and non-residents users (read corporates).

Along with this, it also bars corporates from re-booking a cancelled contract. So no trading allowed by real users.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

The real stress in oil may start in next 5/8 days, as cushion of stocks in transit, floating stocks and sanctioned oil that were allowed under one time approval, start getting exhausted.

Hope US-Iran are able to find some workable solution by April 6.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

@sunnylifer What could explain the move, otherwise.

Possibly, answer to this could be found in forward position.

It becomes difficult to manage when position becomes large and market knows the side.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

The impact of central bank limit for Indian banks didn’t last for a day. This shows how things are when it comes to INR.

Rupee was supposed to strengthen on account of restricting the trading limits. It opened strong but lost all the gain in few hours itself.

[Vikas Bajaj @bazaz_vikaz]

@robinhoodmumbai I agree…as no one envisaged banks to unwind the entire position on day one, given that market estimate on total o/s position in the range of $40 billion.

But possibly no one also thought rupee to see such wild move either. In market, what matters more is the price.