Hoop Savant

NBA fan and pseudo-analyst. Playmaking enthusiast, efficiency admirer, defense truther, hindsight detester. #HundredsAndHundredsOfPossessions

[Hoop Savant @bballsavvy]

Since I was quite literally a child I have constantly been asking myself, why? Why did I choose to root for this team? Why did I sign up to cheer on the laughingstock of the league? From those days, up until now, while we are in the midst of one of the most historic…

[Hoop Savant @bballsavvy]

He's more Rudy Gay/Demar Derozan than he is any of the guys in the top 10. Including Tatum, his former teammate, who a lot of fans, some of whom rooted for both, thought he was better than. Hilarious.

[Hoop Savant @bballsavvy]

This is too woke for me but this is a more reasonable take than "he's a top 10 player and a genuine MVP candidate."

[NBACentral @TheDunkCentral]

An anonymous NBA general manager doesn’t view Jaylen Brown as a top-50 player, per @TheAthletic

“Though the idea of him being viewed as the seventh-best player on a given team was widely mocked, a recent report that one front-office member saw Brown in that way illuminated the reality that advanced analytics never shined too brightly on Brown’s game. Even more pointedly, a current general manager, speaking anonymously to comment on internal team discussions, told The Athletic in the wake of the trade that he doesn’t view Brown as a top-50 player in the NBA.”

(Via https://t.co/daGXVy7Ici)

[Hoop Savant @bballsavvy]

And finally, a historically inept franchise who has never even sniffed the Finals, let alone won it. LeBron would be the missing piece to a highly talented group, and deliver a championship to a sports city starved for success. You could not ask for a better fit.

[Hoop Savant @bballsavvy]

LeBron whiteboard destinations, ranked:

10. Mavs-Makes no sense, not even going to entertain this one.

[Hoop Savant @bballsavvy]

1. Timberwolves-This is it. The perfect destination. A very very good team that for the past few seasons has not been able to get past the next tier of contenders. A superstar teammate who wouldn't be egregiously shameless to join. Offensive and defensive stars with limitations.

[databallr @databallr]

Here's my explanation of why Jaylen Brown's offensive analytics are underwhelming:

Jaylen Brown is a great scorer.

But “great scorer” and “offensive engine” are not the same thing.

An offensive engine creates impact in 3 distinct ways:

1. Score efficiently on big volume
2. Reduce team turnovers while carrying huge usage
3. Create better shots for teammates

That is what people mean by offensive impact.

Not just: did you score points?
Not just: did you get assists?

Did the team score points more efficiently because you were on the floor?

Jaylen is interesting because he had a good scoring season. I estimate his scoring impact last year around +2, the best mark of his career.

But if we are asking whether he is an elite offensive engine, the bar is much higher.

Let's start with scoring efficiency.

Jaylen took around 36 shots per 100 possessions at 57.5% TS last season. ("shots" includes freethrow possessions).

At that volume, TS% (True Shooting Percentage) has enormous leverage. Every 1% of TS% is worth roughly +0.6 points per 100 possessions on the scoreboard.

So the gap between 57.5 TS% and 62 TS% is not cosmetic. It matters. That is roughly +2.5 points of offensive impact. Scoring at 62% TS would move him from a top 50 per possession analytics season to a top 20 one last year.

But right now, among high-usage offensive stars, the efficiency gap is clear.

Shai: 67.0 TS%
Giannis: 65.9%
Curry: 64.8%
Kawhi: 63.3%
Luka: 61.8%
Mitchell: 61.7%
Brunson: 59%

Jaylen: 57.5 TS%

Jaylen’s scoring still has value because the volume is massive, but he's not generating the impact that some of these other guys do from scoring.

The second path is turnover value.

This part is underrated. If you are using a huge number of your team's possessions, how often you turn the ball over before you shoot matters on the scoreboard.

Historically, a lot of high-volume creators give their teams a significant advantage in the turnover game. Jordan, Kobe, Iverson, Lou Will, T-Mac, Melo, Shai, Kawhi, Brunson types. All of these guys have generated significant impact from reducing team turnovers and it's clear as day in the impact analytics.

They shoot a ton, and they also help the team avoid turnovers because the possession ends in a shot instead of a mistake more often than the league does.

Jaylen does not provide that kind of impact.

His box-score profile estimates his offensive turnover impact around neutral, historically, and last year. The 5-year lineup data, and the eyes, agree.

That does not mean he is killing the offense with turnovers.

It means he is not creating the turnover advantage that many true engines create.

Let's look at a stat called "Scoring Turnover Rate". It is defined as non-passing turnovers divided by scoring attempts. It's typically the ball handlers fault when he turns it over on something that isn't a pass.

Here are some high usage scorers around the league in Scoring Turnover Rate (Lower is better)

Jaylen Brown: 10.3%
Giannis: 10.5%
Paolo: 9%
Ant: 6.6%
Shai: 4.4%.
Kawhi: 5.5%.
Brunson: 4.1%
Mitchell: 5.3%
Tatum: 6.5% (2025)

Lower is better, and when the scoring volume is massive this accumulates to a meaningful amount of turnover differences between players which translates to offensive impact.

You see Brunson scored at 59% TS, a down year for him, but he turned the ball on handling related mistakes, per scoring attempt, at 4.1% vs Jaylen's 10.3%.

If you are on-ball enough to shoot over a third of your team’s shots, ball security gets magnified. The skill of getting to your shot without losing the possession is a big part of offensive value.

Top players can generate up to +2.5 points of offensive impact from reducing team turnovers.

Imagine if you could just imbue Jaylen Brown with Kawhi's handle. How much better would you feel about him having the ball in his hands even if he was shooting the same shots at the same efficiency. Instinctively, you know it matters, analytically it undeniably does. Having Kawhi's turnover economy alone would move him from a top 50 analytics season to a top 20 one last year.

(Passing turnovers matter too and he's average there but it's less meaningful to discuss because he's not passing the ball that much.)

The third path is playmaking.

Jaylen took 36 shots per 100 possessions and generates only 13 potential assists per 100 (shots, if they were made, that would be an assist for JB).

He shoots almost 3x as much he directly creates a potential assist. He's much more of a scorer than he is a passer.

Shai is at 34 shots to 18 potential assists which is lower than 2:1 ratio. So you see, even the best scorer in the league has a more balanced distribution of shots and potential assists.

Jaylen averages only around 2 rim assists per 100, which is low compared to the best playmakers, so he's not creating obvious value via lobs and easy layups.

A scoring heavy profile can be great if the scoring efficiency and turnover efficiency are overwhelming like it is for Kawhi or Shai, but neither are for Jaylen. That's the problem. Just one of the two being elite, or both being good, can be enough to get him to engine status. But he has neither. Perhaps he can still improve.

But if the scoring efficiency is low for the top stars, and the turnover value is around neutral, and the playmaking is limited, the elite-engine case falls apart. It just does.

You have other players like Cade and LaMelo who have similar scoring efficiency profiles to Jaylen, but those players are elite playmakers according to both the analytics and the public. Not only are they passing the ball a lot more, but they are generating a ton of assists to players at the rim, which are markers of elite playmaking.

The point is not that Jaylen Brown is bad.

He is a positive player who plays a lot of minutes.

The point is that his team impact has been very weak for a supermax offensive centerpiece because he has not proven himself to be a real offensive engine.

The question is whether he can become one in Philly. I think the Boston system was a pretty awesome environment to thrive. If Jaylen Brown was playing elsewhere and traded to Boston I would be bullish on his fit there. I just don't really see Maxey and Embiid as being the type of players that fit particularly well with him and increase his impact. Its certainly going to reduce his usage, which might be good. I'm not sure JB is in his optimal role as a ultra high usage player with his current handling.

I think Jaylen becoming more impactful offensively is mostly about his own skill development as a handler/3P shooter, and an improvement in shot selection. There's a lot of upside for him if he does that. Most people can't create the shots that Jaylen does. So that's the thing with Jaylen.

In any case, I'm excited to see how it plays out next year.

As for who won the trade?

I like it for Boston. They are fixing a potential long term salary cap issue and bringing in PG who can provide 2 way impact Boston. He's a much better 3 point shooter and defender. His durability and decline is the main issue.

Really I think Philly is rolling the dice on whether Jaylen Brown can improve. If he does it could turn out to be an excellent trade. If he's the same player here as he was in Boston, I don't think it's a good trade. The contract is massive and the synergy with Maxey/Embiid is questionable.

[Hoop Savant @bballsavvy]

Trying to power rank East teams right now and man...it's going to be a blood bath next year.

[Hoop Savant @bballsavvy]

@TommyBeer He's been on the block for weeks, if there were better offers, he would have taken them. He never demanded a trade, teams just clearly don't value JB like that, for good reason.

[Hoop Savant @bballsavvy]

Meanwhile, JB is a clunky fit in Philly. They already have playmaking concerns, this only compounds that. They also get worse defensively IMO. Silver lining is, if Embiid misses time, JB is a more reliable fallback. But if Embiid is down, you're not accomplishing much regardless.

[Hoop Savant @bballsavvy]

PG fits what Boston does more and can approximate JB's self creation when needed without having to lean on it...Mitch's OREB value should that much higher when possessions are maximized even further. They're not quite NYK/OKC/SAS tier but if JT is still a t7 guy they'll be elite.

[Hoop Savant @bballsavvy]

We are just a few weeks removed from PG outplaying JB in a playoff series where the latter blew a 3-1 lead. If JB was as elite as people say, teams would have broken down the doors for him. Didn't ask out, on a long term deal...maybe it's time y'all admit he's just not that good.

[Hoop Savant @bballsavvy]

Anyone saying Boston got fleeced is simultaneously overrating JB and underrating PG (which I assume is most people atp). They got a player who is quite older, yes, but who is not much worse, does a lot of important things better, has a year less on his deal, and secured 2 FRPs.

[Hoop Savant @bballsavvy]

This ain't as bad as people will make it seem. I'm shocked that this is the package they went for, hard to believe that Boston didn't want a longer term piece in return. That said, PG is still good and this move shouldn't hurt them *too* much in the short term, if at all.