Every Memecoin Has 4 Phases.
Once you understand these 4 phases, you'll stop asking "Is it over?" every five minutes and start making decisions based on what the market is actually telling you.
Here's how I look at it:
1. Launch
This is where most people lose their conviction.
Not because the narrative is bad but because the chart is designed to make you question yourself.
The moment a coin launches, early whales, snipers, and large wallets all have different agendas. Many of them don't want retail getting comfortable with an early entry.
Violent selloffs, fake reversals, and constant volatility are enough to shake out most holders before the real move starts.
A lot of people sell the bottom simply because they think the coin is dead.
Then it sends.
During this phase, don't just stare at the candle.
Watch the buyers.
If a coin bonds, dumps hard, and then you begin seeing consistent large buys while volume slowly builds back up, that's usually a much healthier sign than a chart that only goes straight up with no real traders in.
Launches are also filled with vamp attempts and copycats. Everyone wants the lowest entry and the most supply, so liquidity gets split across multiple versions.
This is where tracking wallets becomes valuable.
The smart wallets usually tell you which launch they're actually committing to and which one they're just farming.
If tracking wallets isn't your thing, that's okay.
Wait 10-15 minutes.
Let the market decide which chart wins.
Then dollar cost average into strength instead of aping your full position at once. Your average entry will usually be much cleaner, and you'll avoid becoming exit liquidity on the first candle.
2. Discovery
This is where the market decides whether the coin deserves another leg higher.
The narrative has proven people are interested.
Now it has to prove they want to keep buying.
This is where I pay the closest attention to volume.
If the coin is trending but buying pressure starts fading, be careful.
Whales know retail loves to hold onto hope.
You'll often see fake pumps that convince everyone a new all-time high is coming, only for liquidity to slowly disappear while large holders distribute into every bounce.
If volume continues increasing alongside price, that's a completely different story.
Fresh buyers are still entering.
The market is still accepting higher prices.
That doesn't guarantee another 5x but it tells you the trend still has fuel.
Always remember:
Price can lie.
Volume usually doesn't.
3. Euphoria
This is the phase everyone dreams about.
Twitter won't stop posting it.
Influencers suddenly "called it early."
Everyone who ignored it yesterday now believes it's going to infinity.
This is also where the worst decisions get made.
People stop looking at risk.
They stop taking profits.
They convince themselves every dip is "just another buying opportunity."
Sometimes that's true.
Most of the time, it's the beginning of the next phase.
When everyone agrees the coin can only go higher, that's when you should become the most objective.
Ask yourself:
Is new demand still entering?
Is volume growing or fading?
Are whales adding... or quietly selling into strength?
Euphoria creates blind conviction.
4. Distribution
This phase isn't always one giant red candle.
It's usually much slower than people realize.
Large holders don't dump everything at once.
They sell into strength while retail happily buys every dip.
The biggest thing I watch here is the relationship between demand and supply.
If supply keeps rotating into new buyers while demand remains strong, the trend can continue much longer than people expect.
But once new demand begins slowing and large wallets keep feeding supply into every rally, the probability of continuation drops significantly.
That's why distribution is so dangerous.
The chart can still look healthy while smart money is quietly leaving.
Retail usually realizes what's happening after the move is already over.
Final Thoughts
Most people only study candles.
The best traders study behavior.
Every phase tells a different story.
Your job isn't to predict the future.
Your job is to recognize which phase you're in before everyone else does.
Because once you know the phase...
Your decisions become a lot easier.
i gave you $ANSEM at 500k, it went to 450 million
i gave you $TROLL at $5M, it went to 280 million in less than a week.
I gave you $Whitewhale at $1.4m, it went to 200 million.
i gave you $PENGUIN at 40k, it went to $160 million.
I don’t make a lot of calls, but when I do, those who listen make a lot of money.
Wait until you see what i do next.
Join my TG with pinned tweet for ECA.
if the coin is at $7k
you’re about to get farmed.
if the top wallets all hold $200 in SOL and nothing else
you’re about to get farmed.
if the person who scanned it isn’t rich
you’re about to get farmed.
if the pump links to a tweet and under the tweet is a comment from the same account with the CA
you’re about to get farmed.
if the token is on the Solana blockchain and doesn’t have a strong doxxed dev behind it
you’re about to get farmed.
if the token isn’t cashback or routed fees to the owner’s exact correct github
you’re about to get farmed.
if the token doesn’t own the IP
you’re about to get farmed.
if all of the 4 remaining KOLs with actual motion aren’t simultaneously pushing
you’re about to get farmed.
if the dex & boosts aren’t paid, moonshot hasn’t listed it, and CMC not applied for
you’re about to get farmed.
if moonshot does list it
you’re about to get farmed.
There i just saved you all alot of money.
@KobeissiLetter this can create an unfair advantage where people have insider information, enabling them to profit of prediction markets and the stock market. honestly, this doesn't feel right to me
If you want to get rich in crypto
- Get a job and save up $3000
- Convert it all into USDC
- Put it into 5 high yield DeFi protocols
- Earn a free $1000 each month
- Invest the profits back in
You can retire in 3-4 years doing this