Yisu Hai

winner takes all

[RonnieV @TheRonnieVShow]

Everyone Is WRONG About AppLovin

AppLovin falls 51% and NOW everyone wants to be bearish.

I just silenced the bears with First party data. AXON. Advertiser ROI.

I went through the entire bear case and why I'm buying the fear on $APP

[Bily @bily5260]

Based on latest Northbeam report from @BryanBumgardner

[Tom Collins @thetomcollins]

10,078 Shopify stores now have $APP installed 👀

[Yisu Hai @bbgdahuoji]

@DonnHogan Not enough data point yet. I trust Adam and the team

[Yisu Hai @bbgdahuoji]

My takeaway from the latest AppLovin ($APP) channel checks:

Joe Wittine/Edgewater may be right that MAX is approaching a ceiling in gaming. But I don’t think that’s the key question for APP anymore.

The next leg of growth is increasingly about e-commerce/consumer advertising—not taking another few points of gaming share.

What I’m watching:

• E-commerce advertiser spend
• Spend per advertiser
• ROAS/incrementality
• AXON model improvements
• Adoption/retention
• Expansion beyond e-commerce into other consumer verticals

The encouraging part: APP has reported consumer spend growing beyond the prior Q4 peak, while independent channel checks have also pointed to increasing adoption and spend.

Most importantly, existing advertisers appear to be scaling budgets. If AXON can keep finding profitable incremental conversions, APP can monetize essentially the same gaming inventory much more effectively without MAX needing to keep gaining share.

So both things can be true:

MAX’s gaming market share is maturing.
APP’s overall growth opportunity is still large because consumer/e-commerce demand raises the value of that inventory.

What would change my view isn’t MAX share flattening. It would be evidence that e-commerce spend per advertiser is flattening, ROAS is deteriorating, or advertisers stop scaling budgets.

That’s the data I’m watching.

[Ben Bajarin @BenBajarin]

This wins twitter today.

[Yisu Hai @bbgdahuoji]

@DonnHogan Yes, northbeam and bloomberry

[Yisu Hai @bbgdahuoji]

Two publicly accessible datasets to track $APP e-commerce adoption:

AXON Pixel tracker — tracks stores using AppLovin’s AXON Pixel across Shopify, WooCommerce, custom carts, etc.
https://t.co/jaK1aFEzX4

Shopify tracker — tracks Shopify stores using the AppLovin app.
https://t.co/5Hmv3Pmo8W

Useful leading indicators for new advertiser adoption. Don’t add the two numbers together—there’s significant overlap.

[Yisu Hai @bbgdahuoji]

The $APP thesis in one picture:

Old APP:
Gaming advertiser → AXON → gaming inventory → another game install

New APP:
Consumer/e-commerce advertiser → AXON → same massive gaming audience → a purchase

That changes what I think we should be watching.

If APP is opening an entirely new advertising market, new advertiser adoption matters a lot right now.

The funnel I want to see:

New advertisers ↑
→ successful initial tests
→ strong incremental ROAS
→ high retention
→ advertisers scale budgets
→ spend/advertiser ↑

So MAX doesn’t need to keep taking gaming share forever.

The bigger question is whether AXON can bring a rapidly growing number of consumer advertisers onto the platform and then prove enough value that they stay and scale.

The strongest signal would be:

Advertiser count ↑ fast + retention stays high + ROAS stays strong + older cohorts keep increasing spend.

Same inventory. Much larger advertiser TAM. Increasing value per impression.

That’s the New $APP thesis.

[Lex Fridman @lexfridman]

Holidays are a reminder of what's important in life: family, friends, loved ones ❤️

This is easy to forget in the busy pursuits of daily life.