These actions would put all these guys behind bars if these were regulated markets. But this world is different.
For crypto organizations to become truly trustless, there is still a lot of work to do on governance systems, especially incentive design.
I guess the game is over for ENS. And looking at these incidents, I’m starting to think we won’t see any truly trustless and decentralized organizations after Bitcoin and Ethereum.
@blockchainjames@Metainsider Maybe delegates, community, anyone as a whole should create a new identity layer. Owned by decentralized group of tokenholders and delegates this time.
One more thing that came to mind is the market participants in each cycle. I’m not sure if they are the same in every cycle or if they change enough to meaningfully impact cycle behavior.
But in conclusion, when you measure the periods from bear to bear, this cycle still looks the same. No change there. That’s another interesting point.
So maybe bull periods are independent of impulse peaks?
Yes, this was actually an interesting take for me too. Looking at prior patterns, one would have expected a shorter period before entering a bear market after the impulse peak in March-April ’24.
But this time, the inertia took much longer to fade.
The difference was that we reached the impulse peak immediately after the bear market, but I’m not sure if that’s the reason for the prolonged post-peak impulse bull market.
Another reason could be that the impulse peak was much lower this time, which may have made the inertia last longer. In other words, lower impulse height may create higher durability. If that’s the case, we may see increasingly longer bull/bear market cycles, as we discussed earlier.
@SwellCycle@Tanner35794102 any thoughts on how these cycles may transition over the long term? I guess these patterns do not change suddenly in short periods.
Maybe Lido does not need any growth attempts at all. Maybe optimizing the operation, reducing spending, and preserving Lido's first place among LSTs will be enough? Maybe Lido just needs a certain level of conservatism?
I do not believe any protocol or organization with excessive spending can succeed in the long run.
Yes, therefore I think it is irrational to assume this highly speculative pattern will continue unchanged.
My guess is that BTC’s pattern will converge toward gold’s, since both are non-revenue-generating assets. gold’s upcycles and downcycles are similar in intensity and can last for decades.
My view is that BTC’s cycles will become longer, with smaller wave magnitudes. But first, this pattern needs to end, and I think we are getting very close to that point.
@SwellCycle@Tanner35794102 It is pretty interesting that while the positive waves are getting smaller and smaller, the negative waves seem to remain similar and stable every time. As the market cap increases, it is interesting that the negative waves are not getting smaller.
The dashboards are useful, but they are not enough as the main financial transparency layer.
I would still expect more frequent financial reporting from Labs, ideally monthly or at least quarterly. Annual reporting alone is not sufficient for tokenholders to properly monitor fiscal discipline, actual-vs-budget performance, and expense classifications throughout the year.