Jack Duval

I run a private investment office in New York City. BJJ middleweight: 10th Planet. Writer. RT = |0| Not financial advice.

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

You're thinking of Illinois State. They play in a brutal conference and finished third behind the overall #1 and #11 seeds, then fought their way to the semifinals, where they lost. This is what the 24-team playoff offers: the "Cinderella story". Here's the link to last year's complete bracket: https://t.co/ayRHEYKZbY

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

If you mean there is more parity, I'm not sure about that. I'd need to see some analysis. The same schools tend to make it to the semis every year, just like at the FBS level. Agree on the no revenue sharing, but what does that have to do with a 24-team playoff? Teams that "have no chance" go out in the first round. That's the way it's supposed to work. It's a feature, not a bug.

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

@hideurytboards @finebaum I played at Elon and watch them every week, plus I watch some playoff games. You?

[Rick Scott @SenRickScott]

My friend Jimmy Lai is being held by Communist China because of his fight for FREEDOM and DEMOCRACY. America will not stand idly by while this evil communist regime suppresses people’s God-given rights.

105 Members of Congress are standing with Rep. Chris Smith and me in urging @POTUS to fight for Jimmy Lai’s full and unconditional RELEASE when meeting with President Xi at the upcoming summit.

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

@agnostoxxx You forgot “digital energy”.

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

CPI tracks an urban reality.

But rural inflation since 1970:
+18.6x vs. 8.5x CPI.

Same country. Different economy.

When lived experience diverges from the data,
the consequences don’t stay economic.

Full breakdown → https://t.co/w2taTpbECk

#inflation #macro #economics #markets #investing

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

Are bond yields decoupling from oil?

4 oil spikes since the Iran War. First 3 times, yields followed oil higher.

The 4th time? Oil surged. Yields fell.

First non-reflexive move we've seen. The bond market may be pricing oil as deflationary.

Full analysis on the blog 🔗 https://t.co/w2taTpbECk

#Macro #Bonds #OilPrices

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

Trump turned Iran into a global superpower. And there's nothing he can do to reverse it.

All the big trades are flipping: oil down, stocks up, dollar down, gold up. Bitcoin looks interesting here.

I break down the full trade thesis in my latest.

Read it on Substack 🔗 https://t.co/w2taTpbECk

#Geopolitics #Macro #Bitcoin #Investing #Iran

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

@darioperkins Looks like you're a loser no matter what setting you find yourself in.

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

A trade that loses no matter what.

Down $500K.

The fix?
Take the loss, or get your son fired.

That’s the macro setup.

No good exits.
Only constraints.

Long Brent crude.

👉 Full breakdown on today's blog: https://t.co/w2taTpbECk

#oil #inflation #macro #commodities #markets #geopolitics

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

Markets traded the tweet.
Then reality showed up 15 minutes later.

Oil, vol, equities - all reversed.

Nothing changed.

Hormuz still controls the game.

🔗 Full breakdown: https://t.co/Q7jFY7WVAU

#Oil #Macro #Geopolitics #Markets

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

Iran appears to be implementing the Colonel Blotto strategy:

Open multiple fronts
Force the U.S. to defend everywhere

The real battlefield may be energy markets.

➡️ Full breakdown on the blog: https://t.co/Q7jFY7WVAU

#Geopolitics #Macro #Oil #Investing

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

The Iran conflict may not end.

It may become a permanent morass.

Energy ↑
Rates ↑
Equities ↓
Bonds ↓

You can declare victory.

But you can never leave.

Full breakdown on the blog: https://t.co/Q7jFY7WVAU

#Oil #Macro #Geopolitics #EnergyMarkets #Investment

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

Trump’s oil pain threshold:

$100/barrel.

Iran doesn’t need victory.
Just enough disruption to keep oil elevated.

That’s bullish energy.
Bearish risk assets.

#Oil #EnergyMarkets #Macro #Markets #Investment

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

Foreign wars transformed Europe’s economy during the Crusades.

Trade expanded.
Banking emerged.
A merchant class formed.

If modern geopolitics moves toward a permanent war economy, inflation may follow.

Are markets ready?

Full breakdown on the blog: https://t.co/w2taTpbECk

#macro #geopolitics #inflation #rates #Investment

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

Oil trades in regimes, not trends. ❌

1971: $2 → $10
1999: $10 → $140

Now oil is back over $100.

Is the next range $100–$250?

➡️ Full breakdown on the blog: https://t.co/Q7jFY7WVAU

#oil #commodities #macro #markets #investment

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

China invested $300B+ into Iran.

If Iran fractures:
Civil war
Energy disruption

$150 oil.

Markets aren’t priced for this.

Full breakdown on the blog: https://t.co/IchbOSm8vP

#Macro #Oil #Geopolitics #Iran #War #China

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

Two straits control a huge share of global oil.

Hormuz.
Bab al-Mandab.

Insuring tanker traffic through both could mean $78.9B in annual exposure.

When supply routes militarize, oil becomes the safe-haven asset.

Full breakdown on today's blog: https://t.co/w2taTpbECk

#Macro #Investment #Oil #Energy

[Jack Duval @bdafhedge]

Amazing!

[ESPN Insights @ESPNInsights]

Elon softball pitcher Anna Dew threw a perfect game while Elon baseball pitchers Aidan Stieglitz, Mike Staiano and RJ Latkowski combined for a no-hitter ON THE SAME DAY 👏

This is the first time in at least the last 3 seasons that a D-I school recorded a no-hitter in baseball and softball on the same day 😤

(📸 @ElonSoftball, @ElonBaseball)