@market_sleuth@TradesByC Hi John, I find your posts very insightful (im new to trading). I have some Qs, Shouldn’t a fall on VIX be positive for the SPY? How can you measure the probability and event horizon of the next turn? TIA and Happy thanks giving!
En Paiporta estuvimos 4 días solos, esperando al ejército en la DANA, y a los del crucero perroflauta les pagan aviones y buques.
Humillante. Vergüenza de Gobierno.
Credit to @KobeissiLetter for his sharp thread on the UK’s bond and fiscal crisis. He highlighted the surge in gilt yields, the widening deficits, and the BoE’s impossible tradeoff. Where I’ll take it further is by connecting these signals into the bigger picture of how they fit into global market stress and what the Fed and U.S. Treasury are likely aiming for next.
The UK is the clearest warning sign. The 30 year gilt yield at 5.64% its highest since 1998, is now fifteen times above its 2020 lows. Moves like that don’t happen in normal cycles; they happen at regime breaks. In the 1970s, it was stagflation and the loss of monetary credibility. In 2008, it was systemic solvency stress. In 2011, it was the Eurozone sovereign debt fracture. Today, Britain is experiencing echoes of all three at once.
The fiscal trajectory is unworkable. Spending is pushing above 60% of GDP while revenues fall below 40%. Debt is projected toward 270% of GDP by 2073, worse than Italy at peak crisis, without Japan’s cushion of domestic savings. Inflation is re-accelerating near 4%, yet the BoE has been forced to cut rates because bankruptcies are back to 2008 levels. Choosing inflation over insolvency is policy credibility collapsing in real time.
And it’s not just the UK. Japan’s 30 year yield has broken 3.2% for the first time ever, a crack in decades of yield suppression. U.S. 30 year yields are nearing 5% showing that investors no longer trust the fiscal path. In 2011, stress crept inward from the Eurozone periphery. This time, it’s hitting the core sovereigns simultaneously.
This is where Fed and Treasury dynamics matter most. Unlike the BoE, the Fed still issues the world’s reserve asset. But it faces the same trap where if they cut rates too aggressively, it risks triggering a dollar snapback as global funding stress erupts; hold rates high, and U.S. debt service costs spiral. The difference is that Washington may actually want to weaponize this tension using tight dollar liquidity to starve rivals like BRICS, Europe, and Japan, reasserting U.S. leverage over the global order. Treasury has already extended issuance at the long end, while the Fed has swap lines and buybacks as stealth levers waiting in reserve.
In effect, the Fed and Treasury could be trying to choreograph a controlled squeeze by keep dollar liquidity scarce enough to pressure foreign sovereigns while backstopping just enough at home to prevent collapse. They may well succeed, but the market is already accelerating the clock. Long end yields are rising, gold and silver are breaking out, bankruptcies are mounting, the policy playbook is still in motion, yet markets are forcing the timeline forward.
Gold and silver are the clearest tell. Gold is up more than 30% this year, tripling equity returns. Silver is at its strongest since 2011. Historically, gold rallies alone as insurance. Silver joins only when inflationary pressure, industrial demand, and geopolitical fracture collide. Both surging together is a signal of structural fiat distrust and a shift toward hard collateral over paper promises.
The UK is simply the weakest link revealing what’s next. The bond revolt is global, metals are confirming, and history’s echoes are converging all at once. That convergence is what makes this moment different, and why markets are already flashing that we are moving into a war economy mindset, where hard assets matter more than policy words, and where the fiat order itself is being questioned.
Madre del amor hermoso, Joaquín Robles, el nuevo portavoz de VOX, no debate. reparte bofetones argumentales con guante blanco y una sonrisa.
Imbatible. 👏👏👏 💚
Sánchez empieza a dar miedo. No sólo no reconoce la dimensión del caso Santos Cerdán y no asume ninguna responsabilidad.
La esencia de la democracia es la alternancia en el poder, pero Sánchez cree que bajo ningún concepto debe abandonarlo y, peor aún, que la oposición no debe alcanzarlo jamás. Que la oposición está moralmente incapacitada para gobernar. Siempre, en cualquier caso. Esto tiene un nombre y da vértigo
Esto realmente no tiene sentido.
Rafael Nadal ganó su quinto Grand Slam con 22 años, 1 mes y 3 días.
Carlos Alcaraz ganó su quinto Grand Slam con 22 años, 1 mes y 3 días.
Perhaps an interesting milestone: @SpaceX commercial revenue from space will exceed the entire budget of @NASA next year.
SpaceX revenue this year will be ~$15.5B, of which NASA is ~$1.1B.
En España, el partido que gobierna creó una operación clandestina para ‘matar’ a la unidad de la Guardia Civil que investiga la corrupción de la familia del presidente del Gobierno.
No es un partido político, es la camorra napolitana.