Bond PM by day; young grasshopper of everything FX the rest of the time. Tweets and RT's are my own views and not my employer's; nor are they rec's to buy/sell.
$BTC Bitcoin is forming a hammer candle on the daily. Still plenty of time left in the day but if it holds, it could signal a possible bottom/reversal of the recent downtrend of the past couple of weeks. It's also nearing lower trend line support of a multi-year ascending channel again
$SOL Solana has dipped below 77.80 plenty of times this year but it has yet to close below it on a daily basis. Let's see if today's going to be different. Still plenty of time left in the day.
$EURUSD is currently holding above the weekly ichimoku cloud but looks like it could be working on the right shoulder of a possible head & shoulder pattern. Maybe an eventual retest of the 1.19 area b/t now and July and then head lower towards 1.08/1.07 in the second half of the year.
$EURUSD is running up into daily ichi cloud resistance. It's also close to completing two possible harmonic patterns, a Bat & a Deep Crab, both of which target around the same areas up around 1.1760/80
$EURUSD is running up into daily ichi cloud resistance. It's also close to completing two possible harmonic patterns, a Bat & a Deep Crab, both of which target around the same areas up around 1.1760/80
$USDJPY is getting close to completing a possible short-term bearish butterfly harmonic which could see a pullback after it tags the 127.2 fib extension up around around the 161 area.
Financial Coup d’Etat: History of the Missing Money
$21 Trillion dollars is missing from the U.S. government. That is $65,000 per person—as much as the national debt!
What’s going on? Where is the money? How could this happen? How much has really gone missing? What would happen if a corporation failed to pass an audit like this? Or a taxpayer?
This means the Fed and their member banks are transacting government money outside the law. So are the corporate contractors that run the payment systems. So are the Wall Street firms who are selling government securities without full disclosure. Would your banks continue to handle your bank account if you behaved like this? Would your investors continue to buy your securities if you behaved like this? Would your accountant be silent?
This is the reason that there is such a strong push to change or tear up the U.S. Constitution. This is why members of the establishment say the Constitution is “old,” “outdated!” This is why there is such a push for gun control. Don’t buy it! We can use the Constitution to get our money and our government back. It is time to enforce the U.S. Constitution.
https://t.co/VHNjeFrlQn
$EURUSD tagged the 161.8 fib ext to complete a bearish deep crab harmonic and could be forming the right shoulder of a possible head and shoulder (reversal pattern). A break above the September high would invalidate it.
My buddy @bdubya44 noticed a gartley pattern on the #USDCAD too inside this ascending channel. He was posting it in the @forexanalytix chatroom earlier
Foreign central banks now officially hold more gold than US Treasuries — for the first time since 1996.
Let that sink in.
If you think this buying streak is ending, just look at what happened in the 1970s.
This is likely the beginning of one of the most significant global rebalancings we've experienced in recent history, in my view.
Typical Day as a Hedge Fund PM
6:00 - Wake up, check what Trump tariffed overnight. Cambodia up +200%, Paraguay -3% (they said thanks).
6:05 - Brew some coffee.
6:10 - Trump tweets that the laws are rigged, since he cannot tariff Arizona. Mentally scroll the portfolio for exposure…
6:15 - Check what happened in Asia and Europe.
6:22 - Trump announces that hot dogs will join the food pyramid. Bans hot dog exports. Fortunately our book dodged that one.
6:30 - Drink some coffee, talk to wife, pray Trump will spend the morning golfing so I can do some actual work….
6:31 - Trump announces that oil at $65 is too high. Threatens anyone who isn’t producing more oil.
6:32 - Top 5 position announces earnings, want to join the earnings call at 7am, but Trump just scheduled a press conference then, and he’s looking unpredictable.
7:02 - Trump announces that Japan can now export golf balls tariff-free, in honor of Abe letting him cheat at golf. Join the earnings call instead.
7:06 - Futures plunge 65 handles in a single tick, frantically leave the earnings call and go back to whatever Trump is still yapping about in his press conference.
7:10 - Scroll through premarket quotes. $NVDA and $PLTR are both up 5% b/c it’s a day ending in ‘Y’ but SPZ are now down 80 handles.
7:15 - Trump changed his mind and SPZ are now up 25 handles as everyone rushes to cover their short. (I re-join the earnings call)
7:30 - Some broker I’ve never heard of just downgraded a top 5 position and it’s down 15% on 300 shares traded. I’m pretty confident it will close around there too. (I crack open a beer as I skim his downgrade report, realizing that nothing productive will happen today…😩😩)
8:00 - An LP calls to remind me of some
ShitCoin he recommended that’s now up 1800% since he recommended it.
8:09 - 10-yr bonds gap down 17 bps, but all I can find is a tweet from Bessent about how great Main Street is doing.
8:15 - Some sell side asshole cold-calls me to see if I want a copy of his upgrade report on the AI sector. Tells me that “it’s going to be big and you don’t want to miss it.”
8:20 - Check my email, do 10 minutes of actual work.
8:30 - Trump threatens Brazil, I realize our BZ exposure is gonna get thumped on the open. (Crack open a 2nd beer)
8:33 - Reminisce about how productive I was, since Biden wouldn’t even wake up until noon.
8:40 - Chat with my CFO for 19 mins about some new compliance form we need to file.
8:59 - Trump Tweets about how stupid Powell is. Futures are back down 30 handles.
9:04 - Join a call 4 mins late with an endowment that wants an update, but 100% will never invest. “BTW - we need you to update the DDQ as we’ve changed our format” 😡😡
9:29 - Casino is opening. Let’s see what happens.
9:32 - I’m bored. Go back to reading emails. Turns out the govt created another new form we ALSO need to fill out…
10:00 - We’re actually up 50bps.
10:03 - Now down 175bps. Trump just threatened to bomb Europe.
10:06 - Tweets he was just joking about Europe. But those guys need to get their shit together bc he might still bomb them.
10:08 - Ready for bourbon. Beer won’t cut it…
10:30 - EIA oil inventory shows yet another massive draw. Oil drops 5% anyway.
10:40 - Don Jr’s latest SPAC rallies 300% on rumors it may launch a new ShitCoin
10:45 - Friend calls to cry about how cheap all his names are. We both agree we were idiots to invest in businesses with earnings.
11:22 - Trump reminds everyone about how much Putin likes him.
11:40 - Realize I’m now too tweaked to sit in the office. Turn off the machines and go get lunch with a friend who’s also gonna bitch about how stupid markets have become.
12:05 - Hostess at restaurant pitches me some ShitCoin. Claims she’s up a few million on it
12:07 - Friend starts bitching about how stupid it is to be an investor under Trump, and how we all made money under Biden. I agree with him, but we both agree it would be even stupider under Kamala…😩😩