Ethiopia: Disarmament, Demobilisation & Reintegration (DDR) of Regional Special Forces (RSFs) & Other Armed Groups
The Pros:
🔸️A climacteric step to ensure orderly constitutional reform & smooth transition from ethnofederal system of government (IF THERE IS A POLITICAL WILL by the Federal Gov to do so).
🔸️Pivotal to secure the Federal Goverment's monopoly on violence; thereby defusing unwaranted political tensions & armed confrontation between regional and federal authorities, and also regional admins & local armed groups.
The Limitations:
🔸️Lack of clarity re the intent/objective/goal and scope of implementation of the DDR: Open to ambiguity & misinterpretation
🔸️Over ambitiuosness: underplays the challenges of implentation especially given the burden of the economic crisis & the timing of the declaration (when ethnopolitical & security tensions among the Amhara, Tigre & Oromo political elite is at its peak.
🔸️Procedural Controversy: The stated order of implementation is ambigous. Calls for the interpretation of the intiative as a maliciously intended project to weaken certain regions. For example, any effort to disarm Amhara region prior to regions that are percieved as security threats - i.e Oromo, Benshangul-Gumuz, Tigray etc would be a cry for another political crisis.
🔸️The risk/threat of violence: lack of trust and confidence on the Federal authoritoes warrants resistence at regional levels. Such resistence may provoke mass arrests & various forms of persecutions & rights violations. Worst case scenario, armed conflict.
A step ladder approach to secure sustainable peace or a recipe for renewed national security crisis? That is yet to be seen.
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