Bergurth

Strategy, Defence, and World Affairs. All opinions are mine and mine alone.

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

Trump claims Ukraine is collapsing (no cards), but the data tells another story: Ukraine stands firm while Russia grinds itself down, The Atlantic

I’d add: if you judge by territory gained, Russia is winning; but by lives lost for that territory, the results are disastrous
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[Thomas C. Theiner @noclador]

Let's talk about American weapons and how Europe has to wean itself off them.
Part 1 of a long thread; this one looking at fighter jets.

First and foremost: Europe has to get all American made components out of all weapon systems produced in Europe. If Trump can shut down a
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[Bergurth @beggilax]

@ragnarbjartur DM-in læst, en væri til í kóða.

[Bergurth @beggilax]

@PeterZeihan Maybe the algorithm conflates real bears with metaphorical ones? You do mention those occasionally...

[Bergurth @beggilax]

@KofmanMichael As always your analysis is calm, reflective, and informative.

[Bergurth @beggilax]

@PeterZeihan I believe in your own words those fields take 6 years to come online so it´s not a rapid solution....

[Bergurth @beggilax]

@PeterZeihan Would there be any solution through more gas off the coasts of Norway or the Netherlands? I saw your talk with US defence officials that mentioned this possibility. (Pre-war ofc)

[Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture]

Five days since the Russian conquest of #Ukraine began. In the past 24 hours, we have seen limited Russian progress in the north and east, but more in the south. My 5th set of observations, noting there is a long way to go in this campaign. 1/23 (Image via @IAPonomarenko)

[Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch]

There are many people right now who are arguing that Putin has somehow changed/lost it/gone mad and is not the man he used to be.

I couldn't disagree more. They have simply not been paying attention. This is who he has *always* been 🧵

[Defense of Ukraine @DefenceU]

The Ukrainian delegation arrived in the area of the Ukrainian-Belarusian border to take part in talks with representatives of the Russian Federation ➡️ https://t.co/RKxx6801eh

[Bergurth @beggilax]

A good read on the war in Ukraine after the first 2 days.
@LawDavF

A Reckless Gamble https://t.co/MCa0RMftOQ

[Bergurth @beggilax]

@RikeFranke I am aware, I should have more clearly stated that ideas of interventions in areas we cannot reach will have to be re-assessed. As I understood it Europeans have had US assistance in transportation to Mali as well.

[Bergurth @beggilax]

@RikeFranke 2. Understanding that repeating "dialogue" does not mean there will be dialogue. Both sides must want it, and the economic lever doesn't always work to force it.

[Bergurth @beggilax]

@RikeFranke One thing to take from this is understanding that interventionism requires the tools to intervene. It is that or understand that Europe will not intervene anywhere even with the US (which might be less inclined to intervene in the coming years anyway).

[Bergurth @beggilax]

@JRRTolkien "Rauross roared on unchanging. The River had taken Boromir son of Denethor, and he was not seen again in Minas Tirith..."

[Bergurth @beggilax]

@kejamieson_ I think if you solve that you solve most of the issues in the West....

[Bergurth @beggilax]

@sb_moller @NATO Good piece and if it helps you gained a follower through this. 👍

[Bergurth @beggilax]

@RikeFranke If the US wants a strong partner that can take a full hand overseas it also means removing the absolute dependency of Europe on America. This also seems to infer that the break in relations was a European act which is...perhaps an overstatement.

[Bergurth @beggilax]

@birkirh @Inga_toff Hvað hefurðu gegn þessum tveimur?

[Bergurth @beggilax]

@DagurBollason "Að sjá ekki skóginn fyrir trjám"...