Lisa Marie

People with sense of humor tend to be less egocentric-more realistic in view of the world-more humble in moments of success-less defeated in times of travail

[Lisa Marie @bellaserra1981]

night

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

US consumer delinquencies are surging:

3.0% of auto loans transitioned into 90+ days delinquency in Q3 2025, the highest in 15 years.

At the same time, 7.1% of credit card debt became seriously delinquent, near the highest in 14 years.

Student loan serious delinquencies spiked +13.5 percentage points YoY, to 14.3%, an all-time high.

This followed the expiration of the student loan relief period, as missed payments began reappearing on credit reports.

Mortgage delinquencies also increased, with 1.3% transitioning into serious delinquency last quarter, the highest in 8 years.

Consumers are drowning in debt.

[Leading Report @LeadingReport]

BREAKING: President Trump appears to announce his intention to normalize 50 year mortgages, attempting to make it easier for young people to buy a home.

[Growk Finance @growk_finance]

The key point is that this ruling isn’t just about trade, it’s about state liability for taxes already collected.

If the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the Treasury could owe up to $1 trillion in refunds to importers, one of the largest fiscal reversals in modern history.

Such a move would reprice global capital flows, shift supply chains, and redefine the U.S. position in global trade.

This isn’t about tariffs - it’s about system architecture.

[The Master Builder @KingsProtocol]

The tariff case isn’t just about trade.

It’s about trillions in legal precedent.
If the Court strikes them down-
$1 trillion in refunds flood back to importers.
That’s not just a technicality.
That’s a full-blown monetary reset.

Hundreds of nations
Thousands of goods
Years of payments-
All reversed in a stroke.

It would drain the Treasury
Shake faith in executive power
And trigger new doctrines in tax law.

If they uphold the tariffs-
The presidency gains new muscle.
Section 232 becomes a weapon, not a tool.
Trade becomes war-by-proxy, legally sealed.

Either way,
Markets, multinationals, and entire governments
Will feel the quake.

The field just pivoted.

— The Master Builder 👑 @KingsProtocol

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Today's tariff ruling is much bigger than most people realize:

If Supreme Court strikes down Trump's tariffs, the US Treasury will face a MASSIVE refund liability.

This potential liability is expected to be up to $1 TRILLION to importers.

Why?

Because, if the Supreme Court rules the tariffs are illegal, tariff payments are considered "wrongly collected taxes."

These tariffs have been applied to 150+ countries and nearly every product.

Today's ruling will reshape the global economy regardless of the direction it goes.

Trump says it's "life or death" for the US.

[Damiano L. (Mr. 2008/Mr. 2020) #MTO @ChartShark22]

He knows he’s about to get a hell of a discount in a couple of months while retail buys inflated valuations.

$SPY

[Lisa Marie @bellaserra1981]

RT @HenrikZeberg: My Business Cycle Model has never been wrong!

When Leading Indicator Index (LEI) crosses into Negative Territory - a Rec…

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

Preparing for the Endgame: The "Deflationary Bust" following "The Blow-Off Top"

What to invest in into the Deflationary Bust?

https://t.co/FbX22Okvdw

[Lisa Marie @bellaserra1981]

@KobeissiLetter @threadreaderapp unroll

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Demand for the Fed’s Reverse Repo (RRP) facility fell to $21 billion on Tuesday, the lowest since April 2021.

The RRP is one of the financial system's key excess liquidity metrics.

RRP usage has plummeted by -$2.5 trillion since December 2022 and by -$440 billion since June 2025.

As the US Treasury continues to flood the market with bonds to finance US deficit spending, RRP usage is falling.

Institutions are pulling cash out of the RRP to buy the large amounts of T-bills the US Treasury is issuing.

Excess liquidity is declining.

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

It’s striking to see a principal economist at the Federal Reserve publishing on the subject of gold revaluation.

For context:

The Fed hasn’t publicly addressed or released any material on this topic in modern times—until now.

This piece reveals a move toward concrete accounting steps and serious policy deliberations aiming to possibly revalue US gold reserves in response to growing fiscal pressures.

The last U.S. gold revaluation occurred in the 1930s under Roosevelt’s exit from the gold standard — a decision driven by the Treasury, not the Federal Reserve.

While the paper presents gold revaluation as a last-resort option, I view it as inevitable — unavoidable— and likely to materialize far sooner than most anticipate.

H/t to @LukeGromen

[Lisa Marie @bellaserra1981]

@LisaMcGrew @ChartShark22 hoping you can help raise awareness to my tweet ❤️, thank you friend!

[Lisa Marie @bellaserra1981]

Ok friends, it's that time of year! Send this Dancing Queen- my daughter- off to a great year of success! We need donations for her tuition and competition fee's. If your feeling generous please please donate. We are try to raise 1k
Venmo- @bellaserra1981
Paypal- @lisamcgrew

[Dr. Maalouf ‏ @realMaalouf]

Never forget that there was a different Iran before the Islamic regime, the ayatollah and the mullahs.

That Iran still exists, just beneath the surface, and it will rise again once the regime falls!

[Michael C. Khouw @Michael_Khouw]

We are reminded why the US maintains a Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Hint: It is not to reduce gas prices ahead of midterm elections....

[DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican]

Serious question. After seeing what Israel did to Iran last night, why are we not taking back the CCP farmland TODAY?

[Vivid.🇮🇱 @VividProwess]

BREAKING: The U.S. 🇺🇸 has ordered all embassies within striking distance of Iran to convene emergency action committees and send cables back to D.C.

[Damiano L. (Mr. 2008/Mr. 2020) #MTO @ChartShark22]

Won’t be an actual recession, just a scare of one that causes a flash dump 2020 style for a few months.

No one will acknowledge it and by the time it’s officially called a recession, that will mark the bottom, printers resume, and the supercycle begins into Q4 2027.

$SPY $BTC

[Ben Rickert @Ben__Rickert]

Japan 🇯🇵 is not just another country. It is one of the biggest creditors on Earth. It holds over a trillion dollars in US Government debt and for decades it has been the engine that has powered some of the world's riskiest financial bets through the "Yen Carry Trade".

It's one of the most important currencies in the world and it's getting stronger. That sounds like a good thing but it's actually not and we found out why its not in 2024 when the carry trade began to unwind, which led to a quick spike in the Yen which led to a flash crash in Japanese stocks and a ripple effect that hit everything from US stocks to Bitcoin and more.

JP Morgan has warned the Carry Trade unwind is only halfway done. In 2025 that unwinding is continuing. Japanese Government bonds are collapsing in value, long term interest rates are going up and bond auctions are failing and because of that we are seeing the slow motion unwinding of trillions of dollars of global leverage. This is the end of an era. The era of easy money.