BellyJelly

"One hand, one million dollars, no tears."

[old school degen @notyetadegen]

It’s Michael Burry type stuff in SG right now and when the bubble finally pops it’s going to be generational trauma

Local wages can’t support local house prices

The region can’t support local wages

Higher SGD makes both worse

Houses aren’t for living

SGD isn’t for spending

[麻子 @asa_ko_tko]

TENGA調べ
「最も気持ち良いと感じることは？」

アメリカ「セックス」
イギリス「セックス」
スペイン「セックス」
ドイツ「人を抱きしめる」
フランス「セックス」
中国「セックス」
韓国「セックス」
台湾「愛している人と共に時間を過ごす」
日本

[BellyJelly @bellyjelly080]

Small position, big win on a $CVNA short. #fraud

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

This is our biggest category of imports from China, so I think it's probably right to think of it as a pretty significant signal of de-escalation rather than a narrow carve-out.

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

https://t.co/Xpdl8fYoBg

[Mike Bird @Birdyword]

Capital Economics: if today's announcements are implemented, the effective US tariff rate will shoot straight past the Smoot-Hawley levels of the 1930s.

"The effective tariff rate on all imports will rise from 2.3% last year to around 26%, leaving it at a 131-year high"

[JUNK BOND ANALYST @junkbondanalyst]

Full breakdown of the Trump tariffs. Hold on tight.

[James Surowiecki @JamesSurowiecki]

Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.

So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is.

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

Look at him

That’s my quant

My quantitative

[Nikkei Asia @NikkeiAsia]

Japan's GPIF decides not to raise stock ratio in $1.8tn portfolio
https://t.co/wT3H2EURJQ

[BellyJelly @bellyjelly080]

What puzzles me the most while NASDAQ while selling off was that the idea of one tech company succeeding does not equate to the success of the group. Make your bets on the winner or bet on the losers (most of them eventually). Bet against tech stocks but embrace innovation still.

[BellyJelly @bellyjelly080]

Double down.

[BellyJelly @bellyjelly080]

Long 10Y bond short SPX due to bond yield>SPX forward earnings. Simple trade but I think it’s going to work out well.
ZN Futures price now 108’260 sept contract
ES futures price now 5273 sept contract

[BellyJelly @bellyjelly080]

Lets all buy bonds / receive rates and be happy please

[BellyJelly @bellyjelly080]

The silliest thing I heard the past 2 weeks in Macro - theres a chance the fed will hike. Sure that was slightly priced in the market but come on. The Fed losses all credibility there if it can even come out and say its considering a hike in rates.

[BellyJelly @bellyjelly080]

Well obviously stocks are looking a tad frothy but why short stocks when you can short crypto to express a risk off view....

[BellyJelly @bellyjelly080]

Slow motion market crashes. Finally the party is over.

[BellyJelly @bellyjelly080]

Reason #3 Why I would make a terrible PM

Shorting gold and doing a carry trade for FX (long high interest yielding currencies, shorting low ones) made so much sense as rates went up. Carry went well but holy crap gold basically went to infinity