BenAdar

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

bouncing as expected with some good news, until another final episode late Q3? Then we may move on to the next bull market IMHO.

We had a nice +40% bounce after February lows, I'm guessing 20-30% this time before a triple bottom.

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

all things considered I don't think this bear market will be as brutal as some people (including me) believed, just like the bull market was weak for $ETH. I dislike straight lines on a log chart but sharing both for optimism.

Let's see in q3, imho July for the last dip.. not q4

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

maybe the red path then, it's ETH after all it has to be the worst hodl of all of crypto. I could see it barely hitting 4K again pre-2028 halving while BTC hits 130k

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

@bert7177 @blackwidowbtc I say 56k to 169,420, a mere 3x. People expected too much last cycle already.

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

@blackwidowbtc @AndreaCapellin4 whole cycle has been a few months early compared to 2021/22 taking everyone off guard quarter after quarter. I also believe we're in Nov'2022

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

@blackwidowbtc rebuy*

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

@blackwidowbtc yes it does spark joy, for those who exited above 100k and want to rebut nice and cozy

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

@chartzfukup @blackwidowbtc ah I remember those ISM and whatever other acronyms, good old days getting unfollowed by the permabulls

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

fantastic entry points on SOL and ETH but not buying those till July/Aug. If we just saw the bear market lows then oh well.

IMHO the easiest 4x in the game over the next couple years

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 be like let's see how we can repeat the exact same bear market and somehow people will be more depressed than ever???

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

@BDNcontent @JoshuaWSyd @FrankAFetter last thing we don't know if we will get a 2014 or 2022 type of bear both very flat for ~8 months (skipping the flash FTX crash around 16k) or a 2018 shorter accumulation period (4 months) + an early run like H1 2019. I'm leaning towards the latter. DCA from yesterday through q3

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

@BDNcontent @JoshuaWSyd @FrankAFetter "previous cycle high always served as the next cycle's support (roughly)" dude what? Nah this was wayyy off.
Comparing 2022 to 2017 as your "example", so how about 2018 3k lows to 2013 highs then? "Always" as in "once" = no point comparing 2026 to 2021. Just say less volatility

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

@BDNcontent @JoshuaWSyd @FrankAFetter we won't get a 70% retracement. 2013 divided by 8ish 2017 divided by 6ish 2021 divided by 4ish, this time we divide by 2ish. Keep it very simple. Also super similar timing although this cycle been a bit early since 2024. Note that I dont get why OP says Q2 instead of Q5 in 2022.

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

@PeHedjuk @FrankAFetter ETH 1D rsi lowest ever, dont overthink this one dog

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

@blackwidowbtc -4/5 months difference on the 4 year cycle since Dec 2024?
April/May 2021=Dec 2024
Nov 2021=July 2025
June 2022=Feb 2026
Nov 2022=June or July 2026?
All very much on track so far

Then Jan>April 2023=Sep>Dec 2026??
Oct 2023>April2024=June>Dec 2027???

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

@FrankAFetter won't be surprised if we spend more time below the blue band than last time. Just because of diminishing returns. And next bull market we'll be lucky to hit the red band once, while I can see all of CX getting manic again.

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

@alienops love the bottom signals with guys calling BTC trash and calling for ever lower prices. 60-90k in 2026-27 looking just like 20-30k in 2022-23. I doubt we go in the low 50s even tho I was guessing it couple months ago. Fantastic buy in the next few weeks

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

@blackwidowbtc this looks so much like late q3 2022 and I havent verified but I vaguely remember q3 2018, we're on track it's beautiful. I wonder what the 4 year cycle haters will say next bull

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

@blackwidowbtc people always in a hurry to "buy the dip" when there's still a whole ~12-15 business months ahead of nothingburgers.. 60-90k levels this time comparable to 20-30k in 2022/23 imho.

[BenAdar @Ben__Adar]

@eggstonite @10_FORTYONE 2013 divided by 8 2017 divided by 6 2021 divided by 4 this time it's dividing by 2, pretty straightforward diminishing volatility over time. Next bullrun people will expect 10x from the lows again and will be mad when we barely get 3x from here (being optimistic)