Ben Pike

Miami based private equity investor, alumnus of Georgetown University.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

FYI: My thoughts on the recent surge in yields, yesterday’s Treasury buyback announcement, and what’s next.
https://t.co/ufrHXDhhgb
#economy #markets #bonds #yields @nytimes

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

Shipping giant Maersk just slapped emergency fuel surcharges on global shipping.

THE U.S.-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN IS COSTING DEARLY.

MAERSK SHOULD SEND A BILL TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU FOR DAMAGES.

[Bloomberg @business]

French President Emmanuel Macron called for a change in monetary policy approach at the European Central Bank to boost the single market and protect it from financial crisis risks. https://t.co/SxP5gYMz7x

[Financial Times @FT]

Fed expected to cut rates despite deep divisions over US economic outlook https://t.co/uIYDhkQCaR

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Quite a few in economics, politics and international relations warn of unusual uncertainty and disruptive structural change. Yet market measures of volatility aren't reflecting this in any noticeable manner.
Specifically, and as noted by Bloomberg,
“The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, is hovering near year-to-date lows. The MOVE Index, which tracks expected bond volatility, just touched its quietest level since early 2021. Tail-risk hedges have been unwound.”
More to follow on the “why” and the “so what.”
#economy #markets #volatility

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Markets shouldn't get carried away by John Williams' dovish talk today. While the comments of the New York Fed President likely echo Chair Powell's views, the Chair still faces an uphill battle convincing the FOMC to avoid a divisive December 11 decision.
Moreover, there is little to suggest that the next few data releases will close the significant policy differences in the run-up to the policy announcement—especially after the BLS announced today that it will not release October CPI inflation numbers.
Furthermore, having been led to be excessively data-dependent for so long, it is hard to see how Fed officials can coalesce quickly enough on a forward-looking strategic view of the economy.
#economy #growth #inflation #federalreserve #markets

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

Ray Dalio, founder of the world's LARGEST hedge fund, on Bitcoin: 

"Bitcoin is... not going to be a reserve currency for major countries because it can be tracked and it could be... hacked."

BITCOIN = HIGHLY SPECULATIVE ASSET WITH NO FUNDAMENTAL VALUE.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Gold (+55%) is the best performing major asset in 2025 while Bitcoin (+1%) is now the worst. Something we haven't seen before in any calendar year (the inverse of 2013). $GLD $BTC

https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

Yours truly on the de-dollarization trend:

"There is more hype around de-dollarization than you can shake a stick at. The US dollar in foreign exchange transactions increased from 89.2% in 2025 to 88.4% in 2022."

THE DOLLAR IS KING.

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

Thanks to Japan’s ANEMIC money supply growth at 1.3%/yr, Uncle Sam has left Japan IN THE DUST.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Multiple media outlets report that the US and China are nearing agreement on a trade deal which, according to Treasury Secretary Bessent, would lift the threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods next week and ease the flow of rare earth exports from China, among other things — this as the European Union announces it is ready to retaliate against China for limiting such exports.
#economy #trade #china #eu #markets #tariffs #rareearth #markets

[Bloomberg Opinion @opinion]

@JonathanJLevin @AllisonSchrager @RenMacLLC Underlying US inflation rose by less than expected in September, keeping the Fed on course to lower interest rates next week.

Tune in for live analysis 🎥
https://t.co/jBWVO733A4

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Comparing Gold vs. S&P 500 Returns by Year

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Gold is now the best performing major asset class over the last 20 years with an annualized return of over 11%.

Video: https://t.co/0xFFKOW8Xp

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Cockroaches vs. Termites -- A Credit Analogy
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon’s mention of cockroaches regarding this week’s credit issues was appropriate: We're likely to see more isolated cases of excessive lending and inadequate due diligence pop up, the quasi-inevitable result of a massive stretch for yield by some investors/creditors.
But cockroaches aren't termites: While ugly, these isolated problems don't eat away at the foundation and, as such, they are unlikely to pose a systemic risk to overall economic well-being.
#economy #markets #credit @jpmorgan #debt #bonds

[John Tuld @BradHuston]

"Moving out of gold and into bonds here is probably the most compelling diversification option that you can do right now." - Bob Elliot.

I actually had some folks in disbelief this was said on CNBC yesterday about gold. Here's the receipts.

[Daniel Lacalle Official Account @dlacalle_IA]

Keynesians invented the Japanese miracle of massive debt and printing with no inf... Oooops

via Bloomberg

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

The debasement trade is in overdrive. #Gold has recently climbed much faster than global liquidity, a clear sign of growing mistrust in the monetary system.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

The chart below is from the IMF.
Despite the significant surge over the past two years, I suspect this trend has more room to run.
The primary driver is the ongoing effort by some central banks to diversify their reserve holdings and reduce their reliance on the US dollar.
#markets #economy #gold

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The Interest Expense on US National Debt rose to a record $1.22 trillion in the last 12 months, more than doubling over the past 4 years. The US Government now spends more money on interest than it does on National Defense.

Video: https://t.co/2vr4renD4x