RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

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[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

@TexasOncologist @_berggeit_ Smart. My parents would be livid if you confused me for someone with roots in Kerala.

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

And I thought getting on BloombergTV and CNBC was cool. #LGK

[tom keene @tomkeene]

tweet of the day

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

@KevRGordon It’s only fun if we win!

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

Important to remember that these two series don’t have the same industry composition. ISM “services” is really anything that isn’t manufacturing and includes mining and utilities.

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

Services PMI from @SPGlobalPMI looked quite different from the ISM PMI in May ... revised down from an initial 50.9 to 50.7, with the outlook falling to the lowest since October 2022

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

“Banking conditions were stable across most Districts; however, residential mortgages, consumer, and agricultural loan delinquencies were noted as rising in several of the Districts.”

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

Not much of an inflationary impulse from the labor market.

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

The HPW Index ticked down to -0.14 in April from a revised value of -0.03 in March, driven by a lower quits rate. The monthly index is consistent with a pace of quarterly ECI (Employment Cost Index) wage growth of 0.72% and annual wage growth of 2.91%.
https://t.co/kJnSAtf4FN

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

$NDX printed a new high. Bitcoin is sitting ~45% below it's October peak. The liquidity proxy that led risk all of 2025 has decoupled - lower.
Broken relationship....or a warning? bitcoin:native

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

@TheStalwart Naval Ravikant: “Bitcoin is insurance against fiat currency. Zcash is insurance against Bitcoin.”

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

As odds for the CLARITY Act come down, Bitcoin is coming under pressure. We see near-term support at 62,600, then 52,400. In downtrends, support levels tend to be floors that are eventually broken.

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

The New York Knicks fan base isn’t real life. To wit, “regional (NY, NJ, CT) small businesses reported severe declines in employment and revenue growth in 2025 and became more pessimistic about growth in 2026.”

[New York Fed Research @NYFedResearch]

The latest from @LibertyStEcon

Struggling Regional Small Businesses Deeply Pessimistic About 2026 Prospects

By Will Aarons and Asani Sarkar

https://t.co/m0hlCp0lJV

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

@sonusvarghese @SamRo The "bear case" on the saving rate probably goes like this: If consumers see the rise in gas prices as temporary, they will draw down savings to maintain spending. If that intuition turns out to be correct, however, then the drop in gas prices won't do much to lift consumption.

[Sam Ro 📈 @SamRo]

"...the personal saving rate is notorious for being revised up because the government tends to undercount incomes in real time. Thus, as household income is 'found,' each vintage of the saving rate tends to get revised up. I remember this vividly in the mid-to-late 2000s. The saving rate was initially reported as negative only to be revised up later. In the end, it did not matter but the saving rate is not a useful timing tool either." @RenMacLLC

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

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[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

Inventory building has been an important driver of manufacturing activity of late. However, in May, fewer purchasing managers report their level of inventories as "too low." Thus, we'd expect less inventory building in the back-half of 2026.

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

The respondent commentary in ISM was notable for its reference to price pressures and supply chain challenges.

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

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[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

@JoshYoung Backwardation reflects tightness, but price is the balance between commercial hedgers and speculators (i.e. consensus future $ views GIVEN physical constraints). The collective mkt wisdom (i.e. they know what $XOM said) has probabilistically discounted that scenario to 0ish

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

This makes very odd assumptions about the market's forward-looking nature. If the price will rise in the next few weeks because of something that is already known (low inventory levels), then why hasn't it happened already?

[Josh Young @JoshYoung]

Exxon is saying that oil prices will rise to $150 to $160 in coming weeks