Variant Perception

Use a radar. Not a crystal ball.

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

Navigate markets with a radar, not a crystal ball. After 15 years of R+D with institutional clients, we’ve turned our best models into a radar for investing in US equities.

Invest with the Capital Cycle and the Business Cycle, invest with $VPX.

Learn more: https://t.co/aVUOFZeMbG

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

https://t.co/vXZ27SzWai

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

2022 ≠ 2026

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

Semi capex remains comparable with historical averages, even as the sector captures a growing share of the global tech profit pool. Consequently, marginal returns on capital for semiconductors are rising.

This stands in stark contrast to software and hyperscalers, where marginal returns on previous R&D and CapEx continue to decline.

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

We have seen some notable shifts in our equity sector indicators over the past month, driving a sizeable change in our sector allocation engine.

Semiconductors, financials, energy and healthcare remain favored, with the most upside to our estimates of fair value.

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

The smart beta category is often marketed as a free lunch: systematic, rules-based strategies designed to outperform at a lower cost than many traditional active strategies.

What many smart beta delivered were static factor tilts - value, momentum, quality, low volatility - often applied without any awareness of the macro cycle.

We believe true smart beta is adaptive and cycle-aware. The allocation isn't set and forgotten about - it shifts as the cycle evolves. That's VPX.

Cycle Aware. US Large Cap. VPX.

For additional information, visit https://t.co/cRImOocgAJ.

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

a meaningful risk to India’s monsoon season

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

UK Downside growth risks trump inflation fears

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

What happens when the rest of the market starts stalling?

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

Re-visiting our market tops checklist

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

for more pearls: https://t.co/grNOhiw9nX

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

Semi supply isn't bubbly yet

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

To find out more; https://t.co/JOdOh5NRsH

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

Hero Investor Hype and Market Tops

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

1m stock-bond ratio is +2 SD stretched after the semi rally. Equity overbought + bond oversold mean-reverts.

Long 5y note also hedges the equity drawdown most books aren't priced for.

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

hot CPI + Hormuz = market fears of a 2022 stagflation redux

But, our LPPL model last week triggered a Crash Exhaustion Buy on the 5y note future.

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

Our term premium leading indicator — flow-driven — shows muted upward pressure.

The hawkish repricing is fighting both.